Indian Wells draw revealed

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal landed in the same half of the BNP Paribas Open bracket when the draw ceremony was held on Tuesday afternoon. On the other side, Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori are in the same section while Novak Djokovic is on a quarterfinal collision course with David Ferrer.

A Federer-Nadal semifinal showdown is far from a guarantee, but Nadal especially has to like his chances of advancing to the final weekend–at least based on his projected path. After opening with either Igor Sijsling or a qualifier, the third-ranked Spaniard could face two consecutive seeded Frenchmen in Jeremy Chardy and then either Richard Gasquet or Gilles Simon. Nadal is 13-0 lifetime against Gasquet, the No. 22 seed. Milos Raonic, a potential quarterfinal opponent for Nadal, has endured well-documented struggles with top-tier players–including an 0-5 record against the 14-time Grand Slam champion. Raonic may run into Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16.

A more intriguing road likely awaits Federer, whose first adversary could be Jerzy Janowicz in advance of a possible rematch with Andreas Seppi (the Italian stunned Federer in the third round of the Australian Open earlier this season). Potential semifinal opponents for the 33-year-old Swiss are countryman Stan Wawrinka, familiar foe Tomas Berdych, or in-form Croat Ivo Karlovic.

In Djokovic’s section, the importance of David Ferrer’s recent ascension to No. 8 in the world–and the eighth seed at the Indian Wells Masters–should not be underestimated. Whereas No. 9 Berdych’s potential fourth-round opponent is No. 7 Wawrinka, Ferrer–as a 5-8 seed–matches up with a 9-12 seed in the last 16 and that potential foe turned out to be a rusty Marin Cilic. The U.S. Open champion has not yet played in 2015 due to shoulder problems, so a more likely fourth-round test for Ferrer could come in the form of fellow Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Djokovic’s half of the top quarter also includes Kevin Anderson and John Isner.

There appears to be little in the way of preventing an Andy Murray vs. Kei Nishikori quarterfinal battle for the right to play Djokovic in the semis. Two of the most mercurial performers in the sport are nearby, with Ernests Gulbis and Fabio Fognini paired up for what would be a third-round contest. The winner would be in line to go up against Murray in the last 16, but based on current form the chances of Gulbis vs. Fognini actually happening are slim. Nishikori will begin his tournament against the winner of arguably the marquee matchup of round one: Ryan Harrison vs. Mardy Fish.

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