Familiar foes Grigor Dimitrov and Andrey Rublev are on a collision course for the Indian Wells third round, but they first have to get through tough openers on Saturday. Dimitrov is going up against Fernando Verdasco, while Rublev is set to battle Taylor Fritz.
(3) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Fernando Verdasco
Dimitrov and Verdasco will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers and for the first time in three years when they meet again in round two of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Dimitrov, who prevailed once in 2014 (Beijing) and again in 2015 (Monte-Carlo) after falling to Verdasco in 2013 (Bastad). All three of their previous encounters have required deciding third sets.
The fourth-ranked Bulgarian is looking to build on the best season on tour, which was highlighted by a title at the Nitto ATP Finals. His 2018 campaign got off to a strong start, with a quarterfinal (Australian Open), semifinal (Brisbane), and final (Rotterdam), but Dimitrov lost to Malek Jaziri right away in Dubai. Verdasco booked his spot in this showdown by beating Guido Pella 6-2, 1-6, 6-2 on Thursday, improving his year-to-date record to 8-6–which includes a runner-up performance on the red clay of Rio de Janeiro. The 39th-ranked Spaniard has never done much in Indian Wells (17-14 for his career with only one trip to the quarterfinals back in 2009), so there is little reason to expect an upset.
Pick: Dimitrov in 2
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Taylor Fritz vs. (27) Andrey Rublev
Rublev and Fritz will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Saturday. Fritz soared onto the ATP scene first in 2016, but it is now Rublev who has surged into prominence and is the beneficiary of a first-round bye in the desert as this fortnight’s No. 27 seed and 31st-ranked player in the world. The 20-year-old Russian won 21 main-tour matches in 2017, having previously earned 12 such victories in his career. It has been full steam ahead for Rublev this season, with a 10-5 record that features a runner-up performance (Doha) and two quarterfinal finishes (Montpellier and Rotterdam).
Fritz’s 2017 campaign was an abbreviated one for various reasons, but a resurgence appears to be in the cards and a return trip to Indian Wells may be just what the doctor ordered. The 20-year-old American made a run to the third round last spring, upsetting current world No. 2 Marin Cilic in the process. So far this season, Fritz has one Challenger title (Newport Beach), one runner-up showing (Noumea), an ATP quarterfinal appearance (Delray Beach), and a 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4 victory over compatriot and good friend Reilly Opelka in his Indian Wells opener. At this point, though, Rublev seems to be at a different level. Fritz lost to fellow up-and-coming star Denis Shapovalov 7-5, 6-4 in the Delray Beach quarters, and something similar may be in the cards for this one.
Pick: Rublev in 2
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Taylor Harry Fritz can upset Andrey Rublev today! This will not happen if Rublev can suddenly remember his old form and bring it in his small russian suitcase!lol
No one else will predict this upset like I predicted the upsets by Osaka, Anisimova, Sabalenkha, DoleHide in WTA yesterday!
Why Taylor Harry Fritz can upset Andrey Rublev today? Because….
1) Fritz is in a better form than Rublev currently. Fritz won 4 of last 5 and Rublev JUST 2 of last 5.
2) Rublev is coming off 2 loses to Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer. He lost to these 2 gentlemen in 2 easy sets which is a shame for World No.31 being a NextGen Star! Rublev was supposed to give a tough 3 set fight to Dimitrov and beat David Ferrer in 2 sets but lost to Ferrer (and Dimi also) in 2 easy sets instead! This shows that Rublev is NOT IN FORM CURRENTLY!
3) Rublev is rusted for 15 days since Acapulco. Whereas Fritz is super active and in form playing 5 matches after Rublev stopped playing and played just 1 day ago here.
4) Rublev is unfamiliar with this slow bouncy surface at Indian wells where he has not played recently. So, Rublev will have trouble adjusting to Indian wells surface coming from a hard low bounce Acapulco. So, Rublev might lose the 1st set and will have trouble coming back in the 2nd set where Fritz will turn on the squeeze for an easy (or tight) 2 set win!
Fritz is well acclimatized to the unique Indian wells surface surface as he has already played 5 matches here!
I won’t be surprised if Fritz wins in 2 sets like Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer won in 2 sets vs the hapless and out-of-form Rublev.
5) Fritz will have 100% home crowd support pushing him to win! Did you guys see how the home crows willed a super underdog Sachia Vickery to come back from a set down and beat World No.3 Garbine Muguruza yesterday? That is the power of a fanatic home crowd which Rublev will be facing besides a young, hungry Hyena in Taylor Harry Fritz…who is ready for some big kills on his home turf!
6) Taylor Harry Fritz has a killer serve and volley and good powerful returns which will be difficult for Rublev to break and win in 2 sets as officially predicted above!
Because of the above advantages, Taylor Harry Fritz can upset Andrey Rublev today!
I like +1.5 sets Fritz and a small bet on Fritz ML
Over/3 sets can hit only if Rublev can remember some of his old form from last month!lol This being a slow surface, Rublev even if in form cannot hit through a well adapted, in form and tall-n-lanky Fritz. He needs to be very patient (which Rublev is not) and engage in long rallies without being the 1st to commit an error. With poor form, Rublev will commit a lot of errors and can’t survive in long rallies.
Will be very happy to read some alternate solid analysis for this MU!
As predicted above….
“I won’t be surprised if Fritz wins in 2 sets like Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer won in 2 sets vs the hapless and out-of-form Rublev.”
Fritz wins in 2 sets! I am really surprised that with 100’s of bettors, fans and predictors here none saw a Fritz win! It is amazing!lol That is because this pick and analysis was conveyed to me by God himself!lol One of the biggest wins of the day for me!Thank God!
On paper, Dimitrov should win but Verdasco is one of those who upsets at least one player in every tournament that he plays and this time it could be Verdasco. This Indian Wells is Roger’s to lose … http://www.138mph.com/indian-wells-will-roger-federer-be-able-to-defend-his-crown/
Great slate of action at IW today, esp on Stadium court. Dtrov in 3; Rublev in straight.
‘Little reason to expect an upset ‘Oops!
I had Verdasco and Fritz in three I SWEAR (I meant to post the daily picks and had these in there but my phone sucks and basically froze up and deleted them all so I gave up 😭)