Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Medvedev

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev in the BNP Paribas Open final.

Yes, it happened just last year–and it will happen again.

Alcaraz and Medvedev will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers and in a second consecutive Indian Wells Masters title match when they meet again on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of Alcaraz, who dominated last season’s duel in the desert 6-3, 6-2.

These two players always save their matchups for the biggest stages in tennis. All five of their previous encounters have come at either Grand Slams, Masters 1000s, or the Nitto ATP Finals. They faced each other four times in 2023, with Alcaraz winning on three occasions. Alcaraz prevailed in Indian Wells and at Wimbledon, Medvedev won in the U.S. Open semis, and Alcaraz scored a 6-4, 6-4 victory at the year-end championship.

After beating Medvedev in the semifinals at the All-England Club, Alcaraz went on to capture the title. He hasn’t won a tournament since–and he had not even been to a final since the Cincinnati Masters last August. Finally, though, the world No. 2 is back in peak form with wins this fortnight over Matteo Arnaldi, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Fabian Marozsan, Alexander Zverev, and Jannik Sinner.

Like Alcaraz, Medvedev basically took the entire month of February off (aside from a semifinal showing in Dubai). The fourth-ranked Russian is back with a vengeance in Indian Wells, where has made a return trip to the final thanks to defeats of Roberto Carballes Baena, Sebastian Korda, Grigor Dimitrov, Holger Rune, and Tommy Paul. Medvedev, who finished runner-up to Sinner at the Australian Open, is now 14-2 for his 2024 campaign.

“I know how I have to play against him,” Alcaraz told the press after ending Sinner’s 19-match winning streak. “I have played many times–final against him last year. So I know pretty well the tactics against him…but I’m not gonna tell you guys the tactics. Sorry. But I know very, very well how to play against him.”

There is no need for Alcaraz to reveal his tactics because they are obvious: play aggressive tennis with Medvedev standing many meters behind the baseline before mixing in timely drop-shots. The Spaniard will likely throw in plenty of serve-and-volley plays to take advantage of his opponent’s return position–something Paul executed to near perfection on Saturday.

Even if Medvedev continues to play well, this match is on Alcaraz’s racket. And given the world No. 2’s current level, that’s a good thing.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3

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