There is at least some semblance of good news for a struggling Rafael Nadal: the 2016 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals do not begin this week.
But what if they did?
Nadal, of course, would not make it. Not even close. Neither would Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer, or Tomas Berdych. Only half of 2015’s eight-man field would be the same, as Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and Roger Federer are currently within the cut line. Federer is right on the number at No. 8 in the race to London, although he is certain to slip outside the top 10 after he misses Indian Wells and Miami.
Newcomers to the field would be Dominic Thiem, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Cuevas, while Milos Raonic would make his second appearance at the WTFs on the heels of his debut in 2014. Thiem, Bautista Agut, and Cuevas have all won two titles already this season. Djokovic and Wawrinka have done the same. Murray finished runner-up at the Australian Open, Raonic captured the Brisbane title and reached the Aussie Open semis, and Federer advanced to the Brisbane final prior to his semifinal performance in Melbourne.
Nishikori and Ferrer are not far behind at ninth and 10th in the race, respectively. You have to delve a little bit further down the list to find Berdych (No. 13), Nick Kyrgios (No. 17), Grigor Dimitrov (No. 18), and Nadal (No. 21). To say it is too early panic for anyone on the outside looking in, however, would be an understatement. Players have eight more months, three more Grand Slams, all nine Masters 1000 events, and the Olympics with which to make up ground.
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Thiem – no
RBA – no
Nadal – yes
Haha…I voted before I checked the comments…the same!
Right now with the way Thiem is playing: yes
RBA: no
Nadal: hesitantly yes
Definitely Cuevas,yes 😀 and Fritz, of course. And, Kei/Klizan/Kyrgios. In a perfect world – LaMonf.
Voted:
Thiem – no.
RBA – no.
Rafa – yes.
Rafa always gets major attention – no matter what! (The first sentence of the article.) 🙂
Maybe. But for the wrong reason 🙁
ed251137 (AT 10:56 AM),
Writers’ choice.
RBA- Man, please.
Thiem – Better chance than Rafa based on form.
Rafa – Anyone’s guess. He’s 1-4 against Top 50 opponents this year.
I love this, though. Point is: all the race to London shows at this point in the year is who won the AO + who went deep there; plus, who won and went deep in 250’s and several 500’s in the 1st 2 months.
I follow singles rankings for seeding at IW, Miami, ect. Race rankings are pretty irrelevant at this point. Who believes Pablo Cuevas is going to London and will be ranked where he is at year end!?
All 1000’s and 3 GS left to go–too early to panic, as Ricky points out.
It’s not been just this year but the last two years.
Past the panicking phase.
We are only 2 months in!
I’ve never paid much attention to Race to London Rankings until after US Open – it’s a fall season thing for me, Hawkie. Too early. Going by regular singles rankings is more relevant, imo. Maybe your focus has been on Race Rankings from the beginning each year from January on? I just don’t. Though I may be high on Thiem after he won 2 tournaments, Acapulco especially, I have serious doubts he’ll be in the top 8 in November. I put Rafa in the last 8 until proven otherwise.
No, my focus has been on Rafa’s inconsistency and his chances to compete well at Slams, not the Race.
We are 50 months in LOL.
Sorry 26 months in (FO ’14 excepted where even then he was far from his best).
#BadMaths
The problem is Rafa will have more points than usual to defend at the tail end of the year. He needs to amass good results PDQ to cushion him before the autumn swing.
ed251137 (AT 4:03 PM),
The Race to London has nothing to do with the points he earned last year.
this
ed251137 (AT 4:03 PM),
To add to my previous comment, the Race to London starts on the Monday following the WTF and includes ONLY points earned after that (e.g. the points from the Davis Cup final). 🙂
Glad you are on my case Gussie 🙂 i’d forgotten that. He still needs some good results PDQ come what may. I remember the year Federer only just squeaked in at the last moment – getting to the SF at Bercy saved his bacon in the nick of time.
ed251137 (AT 6:35 PM),
I believe he will. 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYzG9W_DhAU