We’re still a week away from Monte-Carlo, but the curtain is opening on a highly-anticipated clay swing when play begins on Monday in Houston and Casablanca. With Rafael Nadal having made a triumphant return on both clay and hard courts and Novak Djokovic coming off two convincing Davis Cup singles victories of the United States, the stage is set for multiple chapters of the ongoing Nadal-Djokovic saga to be written over the next two months.
First, however, a pair of titles are mostly up for grabs among players outside the Top 10. Juan Monaco is defending his Houston title against a strong crop of contenders that includes Nicolas Almagro, Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, and John Isner. In a weaker Casablanca field, Stanislas Wawrinka headlines as the No. 1 seed.
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships
Where: Houston, TX
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $455,775
Points: 250
Top seed: Nicolas Almagro
Defending champion: Juan Monaco
Draw analysis: Several Davis Cuppers will be making their way to Houston; among them Querrey, Isner, and Monaco. Of those three, only Monaco is coming off a team win. The Argentine will have plenty of momentum from the host nation’s thriller over France even though Monaco got blown out by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Sunday. The defending Houston champion at least gained some confidence for himself by defeating Gilles Simon on Friday. Monaco’s draw is a good one—his nearest seed is Michael Russell, but Lleyton Hewitt may be a more likely quarterfinal opponent.
Like Monaco, Isner has been is in terrible form this season. The 6’9’’ American dropped to 7-8 when he lost to Djokovic in straight sets on Friday en route to Serbia’s 3-1 victory over the United States. Isner, in the bottom quarter of the draw with Haas, opens against countryman Ryan Harrison. Both Isner and Haas have a favorable path to the quarters, which would set the stage for an entertaining encounter. The second-seeded German is on fire this year, but Isner has established himself as a threat on clay and he finished runner-up to Monaco in the 2012 installment of this event.
Querrey did well to beat Viktor Troicki in five sets in his Davis Cup opener and he took a set off Djokovic, but the No. 1 American disappeared in sets three and four. He has a relatively difficult draw this week in the same half as Almagro. The top-seeded Spaniard has to be considered the tournament favorite on this surface. Fernando Verdasco, a potential quarterfinal opponent for Querrey, has not been playing well but he is almost always dangerous—especially on clay if a Querrey-Verdasco clash comes to fruition. At the top of the bracket, Almagro faces a problematic opener against the winner of a blockbuster first-round showdown between Gael Monfils and James Blake.
First-round upset alert: Ryan Harrison over (5) John Isner. Isner leads the head-to-head series 2-1 and is a considerable favorite on paper to make it 3-1, but the big guy is slumping mightily and he lost to Harrison 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in Sydney. Isner failed to pick up any momentum in Davis Cup, falling to Djokovic in straight sets and then seeing a chance to play fifth rubber denied when Team USA lost the doubles match and the fourth singles rubber. Harrison likely isn’t playing well enough to pull off the victory on a surface that slightly favors his opponent, but is definitely in with a chance.
Hot: Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Paolo Lorenzi, Rhyne Williams, Somdev Devvarman, Martin Alund
Cold: Juan Monaco, John Isner, Fernando Verdasco, Flavio Cipolla, Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, Josselin Ouanna, Ryan Harrison
Semifinal predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Sam Querrey and Tommy Haas over Lleyton Hewitt
Final: Almagro over Haas
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Grand Prix Hassan II
Where: Casablanca, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 410,200 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Stanislas Wawrinka
Defending champion: Pablo Andujar
Draw analysis: Casablanca cannot hold a candle to Houston this week, but the GPH2 could generate some interest with a potential semifinal between doubles partners Wawrinka and Benoit Paire. Wawrinka leads the field as the No. 1 seed and he should have no trouble whatsoever in the top quarter of the draw. Paire has a far more dangerous path in the second section. Following a first-round bye, the fourth-seeded Frenchman could face a relatively in-form Aljaz Bedene before running into either Tommy Robredo or Jurgen Melzer.
Whereas Wawrinka is a huge favorite to reach Sunday’s final, the bottom half of the bracket is wide open. Kevin Anderson is really the lone man playing great tennis at the moment, but he has never been a force on clay. The 6’8’’ South African awaits a likely opener against two-time defending champion Pablo Andujar before a possible quarterfinal date with No. 8 seed Grega Zemlja. Both seeds in the third quarter—Martin Klizan and Robin Haase—are dreadfully out of form, so a huge opportunity is being presented to the likes of Paul-Henri Mathieu and Roberto Bautista-Agut.
First-round upset alert: Tobias Kamke over (5) Jurgen Melzer. Kamke and Melzer are coming off memorable performances in Miami, where they actually faced each other in the third round. Kamke, who had booted Juan Martin Del Potro out of the event two days earlier, led by a set but eventually succumbed 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4. Melzer, who had won the Dallas Challenger one week earlier, parlayed his win into a quarterfinal finish. The veteran Austrian finally has some momentum, but he is not at his very best on clay (a run to the 2010 French Open semis notwithstanding).
Hot: Kevin Anderson, Jurgen Melzer, Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Tobias Kamke
Cold: Martin Klizan, Robin Haase, Albert Montanes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Pablo Andujar
Semifinal predictions: Stanislas Wawrinka over Tommy Robredo and Kevin Anderson over Roberto Bautista-Agut
Final: Wawrinka over Anderson
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