You know spring is here when the Final Four is upon us, the Masters is right around the corner, and…if you’re a tennis fan…the clay-court swing!
With the Sunshine Double in the rearview mirror, it’s time for the six-week leadup to the French Open. It will heat up in the not too distant future with three Masters 1000 tournaments and the return of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in Rome, but for now the lineup consists of three ATP 250s. The dirt season begins in Houston, Bucharest, and Marrakech, with Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe, and Stan Wawrinka among those in action.
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship
Where: Houston, Texas
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $680,140
Points: 250
Top seed: Tommy Paul
2024 champion: Ben Shelton (not playing)
Draw analysis: There are no top-10 players in the field and most of the true clay-court specialists are over in Europe, so the Houston title looks up for grabs to almost anyone. Paul and Tiafoe are the top two seeds, but Paul has cooled off since reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals and Tiafoe has been cold since last summer’s U.S. Open. The other players with byes are Alejandro Tabilo and Brandon Nakashima. Tabilo is in a massive slump and Nakashima is better on hard courts on clay.
The first-round lineup is headlined by a showdown between good friends and California natives Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien, with the winner potentially to face Tiafoe in the quarters. One of the other intriguing openers pits Tomas Martin Etcheverry against Aleksandar Kovacevic in the top half of the bracket. As part of Tabilo’s section, whoever wins that matchup will have a good chance to go a long way.
Quarterfinal predictions: Tommy Paul over Jordan Thompson, Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Alejandro Tabilo, Brandon Nakashima over Kei Nishikori, and Yannick Hanfmann over Frances Tiafoe
Semifinals: Etcheverry over Paul and Nakashima over Hanfmann
Final: Etcheverry over Nakashima
Tiriac Open
Where: Bucharest, Romania
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 596,035 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Sebastian Baez
Defending champion: Marton Fucsovics
Draw analysis: As usual, Sebastian Baez was outstanding on the Golden Swing–with a title in Rio de Janeiro and a runner-up performance in Santiago. Now the top-seeded Argentine is looking to carry over that success to Europe, where he has produced some decent results over the years but not on the same level as his South American success. Baez has a friendly draw in Marrakech, where a possible semifinal date with compatriot Mariano Navone would probably be his toughest test prior to the title match.
A thoroughly unspectacular draw from top to bottom is even weaker on the other side. It’s a prime opportunity for Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet to make some noise in the twilight of their careers. Wawrinka could meet No. 2 seed Pedro Martinez in the second round, while Gasquet will kick off his campaign against Botic van de Zandschulp.
Quarterfinal predictions: Sebastian Baez over Francisco Comesana, Mariano Navone over Christopher O’Connell, Camilo Ugo Carabelli over Flavio Cobolli, and Damir Dzumhur over Pedro Martinez
Semifinals: Baez over Navone and Dzumhur over Carabelli
Final: Baez over Dzumhur
Grand Prix Hassan II
Where: Marrakech, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 596,035 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Tallon Griekspoor
2024 champion: Matteo Berrettini (not playing)
Draw analysis: There are no easy draws in Marrakech, which actually has a respectable player field on its hands. No. 1 seed Tallon Griekspoor could opening with Pablo Carreno Busta before meeting Mattia Bellucci in the quarterfinals. Alexandre Muller and Jaume Munar are possible semifinal foes for the Dutchman.
The bottom half of the bracket features Lorenzo Sonego, Nuno Borges, 2023 champion Roberto Carballes Baena, and veteran Fabio Fongini. It will be Borges vs. Fognini in round two if the Italian first gets past Raphael Collignon. Bidding for a second title in Marrakech, Carballes Baena could go up against Daniel Altmaier in the last 16 and Borges in the quarters.
Quarterfinal predictions: Tallon Griekspoor over Mattia Bellucci, Jaume Munar over Alexandre Muller, Nuno Borges over Roberto Carballes Baena, and Lorenzo Sonego over Hugo Gaston
Semifinals: Munar over Griekspoor and Borges over Sonego
Final: Munar over Borges
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