French Open WTA preview: Swiatek expected to continue Paris reign

Iga Swiatek
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For about 15 years, the question on the men’s side was if anyone could challenge Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros? At other Grand Slams there was a time when Novak Djokovic was a massive favorite. Those eras for the most part coincided with things being relatively wide open on the WTA Tour.

Now the script is flipped. Whereas the French Open men’s singles title appears to be entirely up for grabs, it’s Iga Swiatek vs. the field on the women’s side. And even that might be a mismatch. Swiatek is going off as an overwhelming favorite to capture her fourth title in Paris, perhaps only to be tested by Aryna Sabalenka. Of course, others such as Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, Danielle Collins, and Jelena Ostapenko will want to have a say in the matter.

Here are my best bets for the women’s 2024 French Open.

Iga Swiatek (-160) 

Even at short odds, Swiatek is probably a good play. After all, she has won three of the last four French Opens and is spectacular form heading into her quest for title No. 4 on the terre battue. The top-ranked Pole is coming off consecutive 1000-point titles in Madrid and Rome, beating Sabalenka in both finals. Sabalenka was competitive at the former, but Swiatek was entirely dominant the whole way at the latter. She may not even get tested at Roland Garros, either.

Aryna Sabalenka (+650) 

Based on both current form and her near miss in Rome (where she had multiple championship points), Sabalenka is clearly Swiatek’s biggest threat. The 26-year-old is red hot right now and has a history of success at the Grand Slam level as a two-time Australian Open champion. Clay certainly isn’t her best surface, but her powerful game has proven to work in any conditions. Perhaps most important is the fact that Sabalenka is on the opposite side of the draw from Swiatek as the No. 2 seed. As such, the Belarusian is in with a chance to go all the way.

Aryna Sabalenka


Jelena Ostapenko (+5000) 

Ostapenko is boom or bust. She can lose in the first round or she could win the title. That makes her a great longshot pick–especially at the French Open, where she improbably lifted the trophy back in 2017. The 26-year-old Latvian hasn’t really come close to a second major title since then, but she cannot be discounted. Ostapenko has since advanced to the Wimbledon semifinals (2018) and three other slam quarters (one each at Wimbledon, the Australian Open, and U.S. Open). Coming off a quarterfinal performance in Rome, Ostapenko should be set up nicely to make another run at RG.

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46 Comments on French Open WTA preview: Swiatek expected to continue Paris reign

    • I didn’t even try to cast my vote earlier than after today’s matches.
      Choosing between the top three and the King of Clay was impossible. Ultimately, I threw the top ten names into a hat and picked Rublev.

      Today, if I had a do-over bracket, I’d pick Nole.

      The WTA is easily down to Iga and Saba. It’s not a done deal like some folks write on social media. Osaka is a dangerous early-round opponent for Iga.
      Boulter or Badosa are not dangerous to Saba. Poor Paula is back with Romeo. Boulter’s boyfriend is solid as a rock. I approve of their love match!

      • Oops, I forgot that Saba’s next opponent is a 28-year-old qualifier, Risa Ujijama. It’s hard to imagine the difficulty since I know nothing about Risa Ujiama.

        Paula will face Yulia Putinseva next. Putintseva is a challenging opponent!

  1. Oh Gosh. I checked our group bracket again, and I see that Farah Diba is back! A warm welcome back, Mira! It had to be Rafa’s return that brought you back, and it is nice to see you!
    Best wishes for your Health and Happiness 😀

      • I came back to see if the old WTA thread was active. Thanks, Ricky, for putting it here.

        It’s great to see Ons Jabeur backing the QF. It’s by no means a lock that Iga wins the RG title. I’m excited to see who wins between Iga and Marketa! I’m always cheering for Iga, but Marketa Vondrousova making this deep at RG will be a huge challenge to beat. Also, Ons Jabeur can take out Gauff, Iga, and anyone left in the Bottom Half!

      • Not many people post on women’s tennis so it’s a lot easier to find the WTA page, is why.
        Dear Andy M has picked with her heart, not her head, on men’s bracket.

    • Hey hey hey RC!…sorry for late reply!..i didn’t know u wrote me a msg!..sorry ya?

      Ohh…i don’t know whether Rafa a big factor for my comeback RC..but boy!..i’m really happy to join u guys again!…yeee haaaawwww!!

      Ohh yeah…tq,tq,tq for the great wishes RC!…wishing u & our dear Bracketeers & tenngrander’s the same!

      • Oh, Mira, I am so happy you are still kicking!
        And right now, you do lead the ATP bracket by 20 points!

        I was awake to watch Ons vs. Gauff. Ons performed well, but Coco has upped her game. Ons surprised Coco by winning the first set, and Ons looked great. But Coco is getting hard to beat. Ons knows the level she has to get to if she meets Gauff next time. I’m not confident that Gauff will lose to Iga in the SF.

        Iga ran over Vondrousova. I expected more from Marketa.
        But here we go. It looks like another Saba vs. Iga final. I think I’m the only Iga fan on tenngrand 😀 What’s new, eh?

        The world news is worse than ever. I avoid the National news, but I do listen to BBC News to catch Amananpour and Co. I hope you feel safe in your part of the planet—no mudslides, volcanoes going off, or blazing heat. The latter is just ramping up south of here. The blazing heat arrives this week, and the fires have started in California.

        Novak has a torn meniscus in his right knee, and apparently, he started the tournament with pain in the knee. By the time he got to the match with Cerundolo, he said he couldn’t stay in rallies without calling for the medical time-out, and he took the most potent pills possible to get the win. He got a MRI after this morning, and that’s when he got the news that the knee was severely injured, enough so that he won’t be able to play Wimbledon and the Olympics.

        I’m sure it makes many people here sad, wink, wink, right?
        I was just kidding, of course. It was stupid to play RG on a painful knee in the first place.

  2. Most of us bracketeers have gone for Iga d Saba in the final. Vondrousova and Jabeur going far could have been the decider .

    Still not sure who Cami is, but theres a clue in that Cam Williams has a youtube channel and also a TDC group.

  3. I only watched t first few games of Iga Coco but Coco’s fh was wild. It’s a huge liability. She seemed to steady it when she had Pere Riba on board along with Gilbert. Since Riba left its gone back to leaking errors. She really needs to fix it.

  4. BIG congrats to Jasmine Paolini!
    Making the RG Final also moves her up to the top ten. It was also great to see Flavia Panetta in the stands this week. I didn’t see her today, but I did see Sara Errani and what appeared to be a legion of Italian support at RG.

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