French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

June 8, 2017 Ricky Match previews 353

Rafael Nadal has been perfect en route to the French Open semifinals.

The only reason why he is not perfect during this entire clay-court swing is because of the man who will oppose him on the other side of the net on Friday.

Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and for the seventh time on clay when they collide again in the Roland Garros semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of the Spaniard, who has won two of their three encounters in 2017–all of which have come this spring. Nadal triumphed in straight sets during finals in Barcelona and Madrid before Thiem got revenge with a 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Rome quarterfinals.

That is Nadal’s lone blemish on the red stuff this season, as he lifted trophies in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to go along with wins this fortnight over Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta–the latter via second-set retirement on Wednesday. The nine-time French Open champion has not surrendered a set and has not even been pushed past 6-4 in any set. He has lost a grand total of 22 games in five matches.

“I am in semifinals; that’s all,” Nadal said after getting the virtual free pass from Carreno Busta. “I am in semifinals and with a very positive feelings. I played well all the matches here. Until 5-2 (when Carreno Busta got hurt), I think I was playing well today. So positive feelings and playing well.”

Thiem has been the undisputed second best player on clay this year, with a 22-4 record on the surface and a title in Rio de Janeiro. The Austrian avenged a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in Rome by upsetting the world No. 2 and defending champion 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarterfinals. Thiem preceded that result by rolling over Bernard Tomic, Simone Bolelli, Steve Johnson, and Horacio Zeballos. Like Nadal, the 23-year-old is perfect in total sets.

“So far I have always played way worse match the following day if I beat a top guy,” admitted Thiem, who got clobbered by Djokovic after toppling Nadal in Rome. “So I hope I can improve that. I mean, it’s a joke how tough it is to win a slam. Because obviously now I beat Novak; on Friday (it) is Nadal. In the finals there is another top star. That’s why it’s a slam–because it’s such a tough achievement.”

Nadal, though, has almost made French Open titles look simple. He is a ridiculous 77-2 lifetime at this event and remains the clear favorite to win No. 10 having taken his last seven completed sets 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, and 6-2. Thiem, of course, represents much stiffer competition. At the same time, however, it has to be said that for Thiem, going from Djokovic to Nadal right now is also a massive step up.

The world No. 7 has never been to a Grand Slam final and with Nadal back in peak form, the wait may be one more year.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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353 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  7. Thiem won’t maybe the mistake of getting the big win and then not backing up. He seems like a player that learns and doesnt make the same mistake twice. He looks like he’s carb loading and could last 20 sets out there. Nadal stint have the physical advantage and age catches up with everyone. Theim is around the breakthrough age for a future world no.1. Its line to see Nadal beat Djokovic 3:0. Massive form line right there. Underestimate at your peril.

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  8. Thiem won’t make the mistake of getting the big win and then not backing up. He seems like a player that learns and doesnt make the same mistake twice. He looks like he’s carb loading also and could last 20 sets out there. Nadal won’t have the physical advantage and age catches up with everyone. Theim is around the breakthrough age for a future world no.1. I’d like to see Nadal beat Djokovic 3:0. Massive form line right there. Underestimate at your peril.

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  10. As I said elsewhere, I think this match is actually on Thiem’s racquet. He’s the more aggressive, more powerful player, with the bigger weapons. With his youth he may cover the court better and have more stamina. He just won a match against an all time great whom he had never beaten, and he beat another in Rafa, in their last encounter on clay. So he will be brimming with confidence. Just on form, you’d have to say that he is at least as impressive as Nadal right now, possibly more so because Rafa really hasn’t been tested yet in this tournament.

    What’s holding Thiem back, besides Nadal’s reliably great form? Mainly Rafa’s mystique at RG, on PCC. The potential impact of that can’t be underestimated, and if Thiem gets overwhelmed by the moment, he has no chance. But if he’s matured enough to bracket that out, to play the ball not the man (as Federer said he tried to do in the last set of the AO), then I think we’ll see Dominic in his first GS final.

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    • Thiem’s best could conceivably beat Nadal’s best. But Thiem’s best involves playing on top of the baseline and firing winners all over the place. Don’t think he will be willing or able to do that for at least 3 sets against Nadal.

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      • I agree that Thiem will have to play ultra aggressively to win. But that’s what he did in Rome in their last match, and against Novak yesterday; I’m pretty sure that will be his strategy.

        Can he pull it off for three sets? I don’t know. I think confidence will have a lot to do with it, which is why I think it’s extremely important for Thiem to win the first set. If he loses it -especially if he blows a lead- I can see Nadal running away with the match. However, if Thiem takes the 1st set, and if he continues with a high level power game into the second set, it’s also possible that Rafa could get discouraged; he’s not immune to it.

        For me, the biggest question is simply whether Thiem can bring anything like the level he did against Novak, or whether he will have a big let down.

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        • First of all I owe you an apology for the rude comment I made a few days ago. Guess I was feeling jittery and vented it on you. Rafa doesn’t do let downs – particularly not at RG. I doubt too if Thiem will either. However I agree he might well take the first set but hanging with Rafa over BO5 in a SF this year, of all years, is not going to happen.

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        • I don’t think Thiem bringing his level will actually be much of an issue. Imo Thiem’s level against Novak was basically what he brought to his other FO matches, it’s just that Novak’s form was ordinary, and he couldn’t mentally stick with Thiem after losing the first set. I think Thiem will bring pretty much the same game against Nadal, but playing an in-form Rafa vs an out of form Djokovic is a different thing. Thiem has soundly beaten all his opponents so far, but Rafa has crushed his. He has more gears on clay, and he has plenty of energy in the tank.

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          • The scoreline was almost exactly the same as when Nole beat Rafa at RG in 2015 when Rafa was a shadow of himself with confidence shattered. In such a state, Rafa could only stay with Nole for one set.

            Now Nole’s confidence is shattered.

            #RafaIsBack

          • His confidence is low alright, he looks like he needs time off from the game, right now he is not properly motivated. In that last set, he was almost Tomic-like in his efforts, practically indifferent as to whether his ROS went in or not. He looked like he wanted the match to be done so that he could get out of the arena. When was the last time he got bageled in a slam? Must’ve been eons ago. Thiem was very good, but not red-hot or unstoppable by any means, which is partly why I see Rafa as a very different test.

          • Yep, just like Rafa (for the only time in his career) looked like he wanted out in the last set vs Nole in 2015.

            Nole’s not Nole right now, nor, more importantly, is he The King of Clay.

      • I agree with Ricky! Thiem won’t be able to sustain three or four or five sets of hard hitting without faltering, against a Rafa who’s playing well throughout this clay season, not just at RG.

        Rafa need not be tested to play his best tennis on clay, because on clay, he has a few levels of play that he could go to but rarely needs to ( of course he has to be fit enough to be able to play at that level and he’s fit right now).

        It’s not on Thiem’s racket, I’m sorry to say. Rafa has a more varied game than Thiem’s; and Rafa has a good enough serve to trouble Thiem’s returns and Rafa could rush Thiem too (it’s not only Djoko or Fed or Goffin who could rush Thiem), it all depends on how Rafa wants to play his game. If he chooses to stay at the baseline to rally with Thiem, then Thiem would most probably win the battle.

        The PC court is slow, slower than SL court, so Thiem’s shots may not be as fast or as lethal there, even though I understand Thiem hits with high topspin rate plus pace. It will come down to how Rafa neutralizes Thiem’s heavy and powerful shots, which I think Rafa and his team by now would have formulated a game plan.

        PS. It’s strange that people still doubt Rafa the king of clay when he’s playing well on clay, and insist that he has to be tested to be able to play well enough to beat tough opponents. Whilst, when it comes to Fed on grass, most people believe that he can beat anyone even without much warm up.

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        • I’m curious, Lucky. If you think that Thiem probably has the edge if Rafa tries to stay at the baseline and rally with him, then how do you see Nadal gaining the advantage? By going for winners earlier? Coming to net? Hitting drop shots?

          As I see, Nadal’s main advantage (just on form, not mystique or the mental aspect of the game) has always been his greater consistency and ability to make his opponent hit another ball, especially on clay. Of course his forehand is a major weapon, but overall I think Thiem has greater weapons -if they’re on target. But that’s a big if, because if they’re not on target, then Thiem will play more conservatively and then I think he’s lost. His only path to victory, imo, is a Stan-like high risk style of play. From what’s I’ve seen lately, he’s capable of pulling it off.

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          • Well I just hope that you not comparing “on Thiem’s racquet” with “he’s capable of pulling it off”. Don’t you? Or do you.

            The latter is definitely true.

            The former goes against what Federer and Djokovic couldn’t do despite looking unbeatable during Rafa’s reign.

            I don’t really think any serious tennis fan with a modicum of objectivity would think Rafa was near his best in 2009 and 2015.

          • In my book, “the match is on Joe’s racquet” means Joe is likely to win if he plays the way he’s capable of playing at the time -basically, Joe’s best will beat his opponent’s best.

            That says nothing about how likely Joe is to play near his best, so the match might be on Joe’s racquet and yet his opponent is objectively favoured. (That’s what I would say in this match, with Nadal the objective favourite).

            Maybe my usage is idiosyncratic, but that’s what I mean by it.

        • Agree with VR. Rafa’s FH on clay is no.1, just don’t understand how Joe can’t see it!

          Of course Rafa could move forward to attack, did you see how he played vs Thiem at Barcelona and Madrid, and how Rafa broke Thiem’s serve to win the sets and the match?

          Why should Rafa stay at the baseline to rally all day long with Thiem, when that’s Thiem’s strength? Rafa is a tactical player, he’ll not attack his opppnents’ strength but their weaknesses and that’s what a good tactician or counterpuncher should do.

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  11. Thiem definitely has a chance. That is no laughing matter. But he is not going to win if Nadal plays well.

    Nadal is 77-0 at the French Open when he plays well. It’s not that complicated.

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    • Nadal had a physical advantage in prior years which was considerable and that’s largely where he derived that 77:0 record. I don’t think Nadal has this advantage this year against a future world no.1 that’s at the prime age for his first grand slam win.

      Unlike Murray, Theim is an attacking player thst isn’t tentative o the forehand or any of this ground strokes his breakthrough win should come much sooner.

      Djokovic was the defending champion and looked like a broken man out there that had no answer to what Theim was delivering.

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      • Jim, are you comparing the current Djoko with Rafa now?? Are you joking? Djoko looked a broken man out there, still he pushed Thiem to the limit in the first set before relenting.

        Rafa is a better all round player now then in the past and he need not be staying at the baseline to hit powerful relentless topspin shots all the time to win his matches. I’ll look forward to him neutralizing Thiem’s power using his strategies and his court craft.

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    • Agree Ricky!!…May i add?Rafa never lost at RG[TO ANYONE] when he is in this form…

      Also,when Thiem defeated Novak..he automatically ‘invited’ pressure and attention to himself…when he’s going out on court tomorrow…every eyes and expectations will squarely landing heavily on his shoulder…they’re all eager to see how he’s going to fare against the legend of the game..9 times champion..it’s not going to help when this is the first time that he will play on PC…the monstrosity of the circumstances maybe won’t hit him yet…when he hit the PC tomorrow and realize what will awaits him?..that’s when the things will get exciting….In Rome,he dissolved easily when he met with Novak after beating Rafa convincingly…and that is only a Master’s and played in much smaller venue….Let’s see tomorrow what will happen shall we?

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    • I think Ricky makes a good point about the match when he says it’s not that complicated. I think he got right to the heart of it.

      One cannot just dismiss Thiem out of hand. He’s been second best to Rafa in this clay court season. He does have a chance.

      However, I believe this match is on Rafa’s racket. If he plays well then he wins the match. His record is unmatched and not a fluke. It is probably something we will not see again.

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  12. Nadal in 4. Nadal is too experienced and his form is too good at the moment. I have no doubt Thiem will win RG one day, perhaps next year.
    Nadal will beat Murray in the final and La Decima will be a fact.

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    • If Murray makes it to the final (don’t think he will) it’ll be great for Rafa fans, but the match will surely be a rout.

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  13. I agree, Rafa in four. Like I said in the Djoko/Thiem thread, Rafa has been in much better form this tournament than Novak has, this will surely be a much sterner test. First set will obviously be key, as it’ll be hard for Thiem to recover mentally if he’s facing an uphill battle against the King of Clay. IF Thiem can somehow get that set, I just don’t see Rafa going away like Novak did, if anything it’s more likely he’ll raise his game. Whatever happens, it should be an exciting match of heavy-hitting, aggressive tennis.

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  15. People who are hoping Thiem will blow Rafa off the court just like he did in Rome, I am sorry to burst your bubble.

    Thiem is actually playing even better now BUT, Rafa was farrr from his best level in Rome. O watched the match again and it just affirmed my belief.

    Rafa’s forehand was average, his backhand lacked the depth and penetration it has had this season and he waa making Thiem look so much better by giving floater balls. Rafa was also shanking a lot of forehands which due to lack of focus caused by fatigue.

    Rafa’s forehand will push Thiem back much more than Djoko could.

    I have never seen Rafa’s backhand not firing in the semi/final of RG. Thiem will find it tough to draw short balls often enough.

    For Rafa, he MUST serve well as Thiem’s return is vastly improved now. He must not overattack thiem’s backhand as well.

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    • VR, I think the Rafa serve is a big factor. Despite all the talk about how good his winning pct. is off his 2nd serve lately, he has to hit a higher pct. of first serves, because I think Thiem will do a lot more damage to the Nadal 2nd serve than others have done so far.

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      • I agree. Thiem’s forehand is going to hurt Nadal on second serves. Dominic has a monster forehand!

        Rafa must also throw in the occasional serve and volley and approach the net.

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        • VR, I bet Rafa will be serving to Thiem’s BH instead of to his FH. Of course it all depends on the quality of Rafa’s serves; if the ball bounces high to Thiem’s BH, Thiem would suffer.

          Thiem returns from further behind the baseline to cater for his bigger swing off his FH, so it will be wise for Rafa to move forward to attack Thiem’s returns from way behind the baseline. Throws in some one two punch, using his FHDTL, some aces down the T, and some body serves.

          OTOH, Rafa has to handle Thiem’s big serves; since Rafa returns from way behind the baseline, chances of short returns would be high and Thiem would surely move forward to attack the short returns; Rafa has to find a way to overcome that, perhaps returning some big bombs from Thiem by hitting DTL (more difficult to do) instead of going CC all the time, or varying his return positions to keep Thiem guessing. If Rafa could handle Raonic’s big serves on clay, or Sock’s with high topspin, I think he could think of ways to handle Thiem’s.

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          • Lucky, I don’t think Thiem’s going to stay too far back to return tomorrow. This is an area he has improved vastly this year and he can now take returns early if needed. I think he will step in and mix it up.

            I agree with the rest.

          • I saw how Thiem varied his return positions against Djoko, sometimes moving forward and sometimes staying a bit further back. I guess he’s trying to keep Djoko guessing.

            I must say Djoko was playing poorly – serving poorly, hitting his ground strokes poorly – and so it’s not difficult for Thiem to return his serves, and, he’s simply being overpowered by Thiem! TBH, Djoko was really serving poorly the whole match, gone were the days when he could serve an ace or two to get himself out of troubles (his Wimbledon match vs Delpo in2013 and vs Fed in 2014/2015 came to mind).

            I’m sure Rafa will not serve or play the way Djoko played against
            Thiem. In fact, I even think that Rafa has a better serve than Djoko’s now!

    • IMO Thiem is the one more likely to fall into the trap of overplaying. The majority of his UEs yesterday were due to making that mistake. It’s still a great puzzle to me why Djokovic threw in the towel the way he did after going two sets down.

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      • Not a puzzle at all IMO. He’s lost confidence and belief similar to what happened to Rafa.

        As a Rafan, I am very critical of his game when he loses and it becomes obvious that he hits the ball short setting up his opponent.

        So I went back and watched Nole and he was doing the same thing setting Thiem up. Just like Rafa during his slump, when Nole went for depth, he became inconsistent and hit many unforced errors.

        I will be very surprised if Thiem can follow up his win over Nole.

        Thiem’s going to be a very good player and win multiple slams I believe.

        But he is not a jedi yet. And he’ll never reach the level of the Big Three IMO. I doubt he will get 10 slams in his career. The Big Three have spoiled us and it will only become painfully obvious when they are gone.

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        • What I saw against Djokovic was jedi-like. When was the last time Djokovic lost 3:0 and got bagelled in a set? Wow.

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          • But you did not see Novak anywhere near his best. That was not the player who has dominated the game for the last four years and won 12 slams. There is no question about that.

          • Novak didn’t play badly in the 1st set. Not his best, of course, but he played a lot of good tennis and easily could have taken that set. After that he declined, and the 3rd set was a shocker.

          • Wasn’t Djokovic. Only shell. He’s lost at sea. AWOL. Missing in action. Been through this already.

            But to each his own.

          • My hope is that his mind was elsewhere. And when he gets on a surface at the right place and time. His full attention and confidence will be there. Could happen facing Federer on grass, maybe. I think Nole would really fight for it. But I could be wrong, of course. There’s probably more complexity to his present inability to fully back and engaged in the sport.

          • The real Djokovic would have won the first set and it would not have even been close. I really think he’s just no longer fit and did not believe that he could do five sets, which is why he gave up the ghost when he lost the first two.

            I don’t think it’s the same thing that happened to Rafa. Rafa was afraid on court; not fear of anything, as far as he could tell. Just fear. His doctor and physio believe it was caused by all those injuries. Rafa did not have a problem with motivation; he rarely did. I think that’s Djokovic’s problem now. How bad does he want it? And how much is he willing to give up to get it? I think a break would do him a world of good. Give him time to decompress and sort out his head. Take a lesson from Fed and Rafa.

          • I do agree its motivation problem for Djoko, and that had led to he not wanting to train hard and hence he’s so unfit, so lack of power, and lack of precision and sharpness. He’s playing like a second tier player now but occasionally could still play brilliantly or grind out a win.

            It may take him a while to get back to his usual good or great level even if he finds his motivation. I think he really needs to train hard and works on his game for he won’t get back his precision and sharpness overnight. The perplexing thing is, why did he fire his whole team when all he needs is getting a new coach to replace Becker?

            Perhaps, he should take a break from the tour and works on his game, before any further losses dampen his spirit and his confidence even further, or worse still, kills whatever is left of his motivation.

          • Ramara says AT 4:32 PM: “Rafa was afraid on court; not fear of anything, as far as he could tell. Just fear. His doctor and physio believe it was caused by all those injuries.”
            .
            U.Toni has explained in his interviews that Rafa lacked confidence during 2015 due to the injuries he suffered in 2014.
            U.Toni in his interview with COP, a radio network in Spain, in Dec.2015: “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily during the year*], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”

            *At the end of 2014, he underwent stem cell theraphy for his back, which helped him more than other treatments he had received during the year.

      • ed,

        That is the question I came away with after watching the match. Especially that third set. To see Novak just give it up like that and not fight if only for his own pride, was just shocking.

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  17. And don’t forget this is the first time ever Thiem’s going to play on PC! The dimensions are different and so is Rafa’s presence.

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  18. The weather forecast looks good too. All signs point to a Nadal win in my opinion. I would be surprised if he loses.

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  20. Rafa could lose as many games as he has lost in the first 5 matches. Still, expecting him to win. Theim certainly a future champ, maybe multiple RG winner.

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  22. Funny how the FO has put Rafa’s match on second after his half playing first throughout the tournament.

    Ratings I presume (if I was objective).

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  23. Will be a little bit tougher for Rafa, but winning the next 6 sets losing one is 99.999% if not 100%.

    No one can beat Rafa when he plays at this level.

    First man on earth to win GS two digits, might not be repeatable until the next millennium.

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  27. Average forehand speeds at RG 2016:

    1. Thiem: 84 mph
    2. Wawrinka: 81 mpht
    3. Nadal: 79 mph

    Murray is at 73 mph.

    Thiem’s got the biggest forehand. It can be the spinniest and the fastest!

    Rafa is hitting it harder too. He was hitting it at less speed in US0 2013 , USO 2010 .

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    • Also very much dependent on respective opponent’s ability (or inability) to put them under pressure.

      Djokovic, for example, didn’t. He hit many short balls, like Rafa did from 2014-2015.

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    • VR,how about Sock’s FH. He is also hitting with high topspin rate plus pace.

      I also wonder during Rafa’s younger days -2005-2008 – how hard did he hit his FH.

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      • I do know Rafa at AO2004 as a 17yo was hitting some 100 mph FHs that were awesome and John Mac was mighty impressed. I wonder what’s the average speed of his FH in that match.

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      • Yeah sock is right up there!

        Rafa hits with more net clearance than both so it is different. Plus, Rafa defends so well and ends up hitting lots of slower , defensive ones which pull his avg down.

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        • VR, yeah agree, Rafa doesn’t hit like Thiem for example. Rafa is not a hard hitter, he uses his FH more for rallying and point construction too, to get into position to counterpunch or attack, whilst Thiem or Sock for examples would go for outright winners and so hit as hard as possible.

          I check Sock vs Thiem H2H, they played three times and Thiem leads 2-1. I would like to see them playing each other and get a good look at their topspin + pace FH vs FH.

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      • Avg. RPMs keep increasing with string/racquet technology and improving technique as the game evolves:

        Sampras (1700)
        Agassi (1900)
        Safin (2200)
        Hewitt (2200)
        Bruguera (3500)

        2008 Rafa (3200) Fed (2700) Roddick (2700)
        2012 Rafa (3200) Fed (2700)
        2015 Rafa (3400) Sock (3300) Fed (2900)
        2016 Rafa (3400) Sock (3300) Fed (3000) Raonic (2850)

        (These are averages. For example, Rafa gets up into the 4000 range during hard court season.)

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    • Marion Bartolli interviewed Ostapenko, the 20 year old who reached the women final here, and said that Ostapenko hit a bigger FH than Murray’s!

      My goodness, even women players now are hitting so hard, tennis is getting to be all about power now; it’s a power game, big hitters plus big servers will be the ones leading the tour going forward, after the big four are gone.

      We saw it in Alex Zverev at the Rome final, and we saw it here in Thiem at the QF, poor Djoko was at the receiving end of it both times from those two youngsters.

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  28. Looks like finals day on Sunday will be 31 degrees. Ideal conditions for Mr. Relentless if he makes the final again.

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    • Yeah he doesn’t quite hold up to the heat like he used to.

      Sun yes. Extreme heat. Not so much.

      But he will deal with it better than Murray. Not sure about Stumpy though.

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  31. Well, I voted for Rafa in three. Thiem could make it closer than I expect, but I’d have to see it first to believe it.

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  32. I clicked Thiem in 5 for the poll… And then immediately thought, that’s actually probably the least likely result!
    I can see Thiem winning, but he’s gotta take the first set you would think. The boost to his confidence that would give, and the possible possible dent it would give Rafas (given what happened last time they met) could be huge.
    Sounds a bit silly, but I think Thiem in straights is the most likely win for the Austrian, and not inconceivable. Perhaps a touch fanciful though …

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  33. Can’t wait for these 2 matches at the business end. Theres very little separating these 4 players right now.

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  34. Rafa in 4, I thunk Thiem has enough power and stamina to take the first set of Rafa at this year RG.. I predict memorable final Rafa – Stan, with Rafa win in 5 sets.

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    • Sounds good to me and would provide a thrilling finish of this year’s rather tame men’s competition. A 5-setter against Wawa would kill a lot of rafafans along the way, though 😉
      But first Rafa has to clear the Thiem hurdle.

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      • And Stan has to get by Murray. I think it was dumb of him to start trash-talking before the match. Tennis isn’t boxing. And Murray is still the #1 player in the world, and the guy who beat him at exactly this stage just last year. Why give him any extra motivation?

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        • ‘I think he’s probably a bit less confident. He’s a bit more hesitant.

          Wawrinka starts mind games with Murray ahead of French Open semi-final

          ‘Hopefully I can take advantage of that and find solutions to beat him.’

          Wawrinka has been delighted with his own performances in Paris and insists he has real belief in his ability having won three majors in the past.

          ‘I’m very confident and mentally very strong,’ he added.

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          • Ok, so maybe it’s only trash talking by tennis standards. Still, I think he should stick to talking about his own confidence, instead of speculating about Murray’s lack of it.

  35. While studying for my final CA exams on Monday and Tuesday, I suddenly decide to revise my pick to Rafa in 3 sets.

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  36. I feel like Thiem is so unpredictable, so hit-or-miss, he typically either gets blown off the court in straight sets against top players, or blows THEM off the court… No in between typically. Thiem also, even by his own admission, is never able to replicate his performance in the following round after beating a top player. So until I see him beat two top players back-to-back, I’m not counting on it happening. If Thiem manages to finally break that habit, then I think he will win in 4. If history continues to repeat itself tomorrow, it will be Rafa in 3… And I think the latter is more likely!

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    • good points. And I think Thiem in the final would be similar. If he beats Rafa, he will either crush Stan/Andy, or get crushed by Stan/Andy. No in between.

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  37. If Thiem hadn’t beaten Rafa in Rome, Rafa would have turned up with his normal game and normal intensity knowing that would beat Thiem. But Rafa and his team have now had the opportunity of studying the Rome match and get Rafa ready for the swash buckling Thiem at his peak. I watched the Rome match again today and Rafa played worse than Thiem on that day, I doubt that will happen tomorrow.

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • Agree with you Nadline. Rafa will come all prepared. I watched the highlights of their Barcelona and Madrid matches again, Thiem played better at Madrid than at Barcelona, I think the quicker Madrid court allowed his shots to travel quicker through the air and Rafa had a hard time countering those shots but Rafa still won the crucial points to win the first set TB and winning the match in straight sets.

      The PC court at RG is a slow clay court not unlike Barcelona, so I think Thiem’s shots won’t be as lethal as in Madrid. I’m sure by now Rafa knows Thiem’s game when it’s at his best and comes out with a proper game plan to counter that. After all, Rafa is a problem solver out there, and plays different strategies vs different players.

      Reply

  41. Murray is a problem solver not unlike Rafa but he doesn’t have the fire power of Rafa. Kei should’ve done better in the last two sets of their match, played a horrible TB to lose the third set after fighting so hard. Kei played worst in the last set.

    I doubt Stan would give Murray those kind of opportunities; and I doubt Murray would beat Stan the way he did at RG last year at the same stage, for Murray isn’t playing as well as he did last year and Stan is getting better and better through the draw.

    Reply

      • That Rafa quote dates back many years. It tells us why he so often battled to a win when all seemed lost. It could also explain the 2015/2016 slump i.e. the fear of losing simply took over**.

        **As Hawks would say ‘between the ears’

        Reply

        • ed251137 (AT 9:43 AM).

          1) U.Toni has explained Rafa’s problem in 2015 (see my post on JUNE 8, 2017 AT 4:58 PM).

          2) In 2016, Rafa had a left wrist problem. He injured the wrist in spring 2016 and skipped the end of the season because of the wrist problem.
          Playing in the Olympics before Rafa was fully recovered from the left wrist injury he got in spring, caused him a new injury in the same wrist (though in the different area than where he had the injury) – bone edema due to overloading the bone.
          Dr. Cotorro in his interview with Cadena SER on Oct.21, 2016:
          “The initial wrist injury is healed, but he has an bone edema that prevents him from playing comfortably.”
          “Nadal will be fully recovered to start the new season at the beginning of 2017. We already have a schedule set up.”
          [Translated by GSS]

          Reply

        • Rafa will be pumped up for this encounter and understandably be a little tense at the outset – as will be Thiem. It will come down to who can control their nerves the best. My money is on Rafa but I think it will take four sets.

          Reply

        • Yeah ed!…It’s very inspiring to read those inspirational quotes from Rafa…It feel’s like we can see his soul through his quotes..no wonder he can comeback from multiples injury lay off and dark moments many times before…I am very proud to be his fans…

          Oh!btw ed…You’re gonna watch the match at home today?

          Reply

    • I’m pretty sure it’s not 100-2, according to Wiki it’s more like 77-2. Maybe 100-2 is factoring in other clay 5 set matches from a while back.

      Reply

  47. Gunter Bresnik: ‘I know Thiem will lose to Nadal’

    ‘I always think Dominic is capable’, Bresnik told New York Times. ‘But he’s an extreme underdog tomorrow, playing especially on the court where probably Nadal feels the most comfortable.’ ‘At the age of 30 as a coach, you want it to happen immediately.

    But now I know it’s not going to happen tomorrow, and that’s all right. I enjoy the process. You don’t try to force certain things. You have to let things happen.’ Bresnik also spoke about Thiem’s hard training regime.

    We know how Dominic is strong physically especially on clay, but it didn’t happem by chance. He always trained for many hours both on court and off-it. ‘I always said, ‘Listen, I don’t prepare you for Club Med; I prepare you for the jungle or the war,’ or whatever stupid words you want to use.

    Reply

    • VR….I’m pretty pretty sure that is a mind games..Maybe Gunter wanna hit back to Rafa’s camp who’s said the other day that they’re prefer Novak in current form than Thiem…I knew it as soon as that statement came out from Rafa’s camp that Thiem’s camp must be react to it…

      Reply

  52. Rafa missed a smash….the more service games i watch from him the more nervous i get…right now thiem is giving rafa points from UFE thats it

    Reply

  54. Yep!…My tv commentators just said that chair umpire just finished his conversations with rafa about speeding it up his service games….

    Reply

  64. Rafa is not even in 5th gear at the moment. He is not deploying his most offensive forehands and is happy to break Thiem’s backhand and draw errors by spreading the court. He is in charge at the moment so can’t complain. I believe he will get more offensive with his forehand as the match goes on.

    Reply

    • thanks MA! that is HUGE! Coming into this match, THiem’s avg RPM was 3357, Rafa’s was 3307! So they are at par.

      Oh wow monster inside out forehand from Rafa!

      Reply

      • Yep VR!..and what’s more,the commentator also said that Rafa flatten his serves and BH..make it more lethal than usual..and they said he maybe has a chance at Wimby…what do u think VR?

        Reply

    • I clarified there NNY, sorry about the confusion.

      So Rafa ends the set with 9 winners and Thiem 6 winners! so much for reckless hitting!!

      Reply

  69. Poor Thiemers – he’s over-hitting and does not know what to do.

    This is like shooting fish in a barrel for Rafa

    Reply

  78. Why are the commentators here, Fred Stolly and Wally Masur, so concerned over the time between points? Stolly in particular keeps talking about Rafa’s time between points in all his matches! He didn’t even mention anything during Murray’s matches until Murray was given TV warning!

    Why can’t they just watch the match and appreciate the tennis instead? Rafa’s matches aren’t slow moving either, finishing them each in < 2 hours!

    Reply

  81. One thing to have the ability to generate topspin but a totally different thing to be able to use it! Rafa is the master of both.

    Reply

  84. Them just overhits too many forehand rally balls, let alone potential winners. Not sure what his strategy is today.

    Reply

  91. TOLD YOU, he is not going to get floaters today to punish!! He is getting heavier, deeper shots and it is NOT possible to play this type of tennis then. He is using the same ‘tactics’ he did in Rome but obviously Rafa is controlling the match more than he could in Rome. Honestly, so far this is playing out close to what I had thought.

    Btw, Rafa is still winning 71% of second serves. This is UNBELIEVABLE how consistent he has been defending his second serve this RG.

    Reply

    • Yeah, I noticed Thiem is not getting up to a few rare short balls – and when he gets a chance he does the usual, over hit/can’t capitalize. There aren’t many chances but there have been some. Bam Bam must have a broken spirit at this point.

      Reply

    • don’t worry vmk… Rafa will respond if Thiem gets ‘hot’.

      Rafa will win his 10th RG without losing a set. Yes, that’s my prediction..

      Reply

  97. I have NEVER heard any commentator talk about how much more aggressive Nadal’s backhand counterpunching gets at RG as compared to tournaments like Rome (esp.when he loses there )!! I find it strange. It is such an important factor.

    Reply

  98. Rafa is not playing close to his best because of underplay. At least he gets to spend 2 hours on the court and he should be ready for warm Sunday . He should be lot more in touch for Sunday

    Reply

  103. Poor Thiem. Beats Nadal, Djokovic schools him. Beats Djokovic, Nadal pastes him. The big 4 dont take kindly to someone else beating their fellow members

    Reply

    • Rafa my darling! I am at the hairdresser a d they all think I am nuts because I am going crazy checking the score!

      Rafa is going to do it with ease! Schooling Thiem!

      Reply

  104. The thought of Rafa losing at RG once he gets through the QF is just so unthinkable…. It will take an all-time great, Herculean effort from Stan for Rafa to lose a Roland Garros final. I PRAY that Stan shows up
    to play. If he does, this has potential to be an all-time classic final… That being said, when a guy is 9-0 in RG finals, it’s just ridiculous to imagine him losing.

    Reply

  109. The commentator is right, this is the first time Rafa’s match here goes over two hours!

    Rafa had won 75% of his second serve points! He bageled Thiem and only gave him seven games! He lost only 29 games in six BO5 matches, unbelievable!

    So Rafa is into his tenth FO final, and seventh final this year! I’m just so happy with the way Rafa plays, not even needs to go into fifth gear. Thiem may be playing subpar tennis today compared to his QF vs Djoko, still takes nothing away from the brilliance of Rafa! Vamos!

    Reply

  110. I dont think Rafa played great today. He was solid. Served well when it mattered. But Theim was as bad as Rome honestly.

    Reply

    • The fact that Stan couldn’t win his match in straight sets means he’s still inconsistent in his level of play. He broke serves but couldn’t hold on to his own service games.

      I think Rafa will up his level in the final even if Stan up his.

      Reply

  113. Rafa will not let Stan play his game. He will force Stan into errors.
    it will probably be straight sets again.

    Reply

  114. Rafa was tested today and saved all the break points when needed. he is so confident. La Decima is his destiny. Stan wont even come close.

    Reply

    • I think Rafa is ready for Sunday. He wasn’t even at his best. It shows once again how tough it is to take out the top four back-to-back. Rafa showed Thiem why he’s the King of Clay.

      Congratulations Rafa! I am SO proud of you!

      Reply

  115. I understand that Rafa is 31 years old and is not at the absolute peak of his powers. However, being 9-0 in RG finals cannot be overstated- the guy just DOES NOT lose in the final of Roland Garros! Yes, he absolutely can lose one, and Stan is probably the only guy who truly has any shot at it. But even if this isn’t quite 2013 Rafa, I just don’t see how I could give Rafa any less than a 75% chance of winning strictly going on his invincibility in RG finals… If Stan is going to win, it is going to have to be shocking. NOBODY picked him to beat Novak in 2015 when Novak was virtually unbeatable in big matches, but he shocked everyone by putting on a rare display. I believe that Stan would have to SHOCK the world with his play to beat Rafa in a RG final. Yes, he did it once before against an unstoppable force in 2015, but I just don’t see him ever replicating that level of performance again, especially not against the guy who has been challenged 9 times and won every single one of them. I think it will be Rafa for the title in 4 sets. If Stan manages to become a terminator again, then I think Stan could win in 4. But I, personally, do not see it going 5 and I just don’t expect Rafa to lose…

    Reply

    • Nole was too passive in that final. Becker was dumbfounded.

      Nole definitely felt the pressure to finally win there with Rafa out of the picture.

      Reply

      • Nole was also feeling tired in that final in 2015. he had a 5 hour semis against Murray. And he had beaten rafa in quarters.

        Reply

  116. Rafa will not let Stan play like he did in 2015. Dont be surprised it the outcome is very similar to today’s match against theim

    Reply

  117. @CarlBialik 53m53 minutes ago
    Games lost by Nadal before final at French Open:
    2017: 29
    2014: 40
    2013: 87
    2012: 35
    2011: 77
    2010: 61
    2008: 37
    2007: 51
    2006: 69
    2005: 61

    Reply

  118. @gasparlanca 1h1 hour ago
    Rafa Nadal’s first six matches at #RG17:

    6-1, 6-4, 6-1
    6-1, 6-4, 6-3
    6-0, 6-1, 6-0
    6-1, 6-2, 6-2
    6-2, 2-0 ret.
    6-3, 6-4, 6-0

    Next: Final

    Reply

  119. @carole_bouchard 16m16 minutes ago
    “10 is a beautiful number. Actually my favorite is 9”, Rafa for general laughter

    Reply

  120. Rafa, bomaye! Bomaye Rafael Nadal!

    ATP Media Info‏Verified account @ATPMediaInfo 29m29 minutes ago
    #CryBaby bids to become 1st player outside of Big Four to reach No. 2 in Emirates #ATP Rankings since @LleytonHewitt from July 18-24, 2005.

    Reply

  121. Theim, what a disappointment. I didn’t watch it but sounds like of the last 2 weeks didn’t turn up.

    Ah well, we got what we wanted, a final between the 2 best players in the world on clay.

    Reply

  122. I keep telling this to my friends and I will keep writing it here as well:

    Nadal does NOT let your game on the clay of roland garros! He is playing quite aggressively himself (note that aggression is not simply hitting 100 mph forehands), and he weight of his forehand and his ability to spread the court makes it really hard for his opponents to play their attacking game.

    Stan will be hampered to a good extent on his backhand no matter how great his backhand is because Rafa’s forehand is spewing VENOM at the moment.

    The sun will be shining and Rafa’s forehand will be so tough to deal with. Rafa’s forehand (assuming he hits it with good length) makes it so tough for stan ot execute his signature backhand DTL.

    Rafa’s second serve is so improved and Stan’s ROS is NOT amongst the best.

    I am expecting Rafa to win in 3 sets. He could lose a set if Stan has a crazy set and Rafa underplays.

    2015 final was against Djokovic against whom Stan finds at much easier to find rhythm. TOTALLY different match up! Also, that final was so poorly played from Novak from a tactical viewpoint. There was a dissent in his team as well regarding the strategy and it was not good. He was too passive and tried to pull off a Murray-like win for most part. No doubt Stan was on fire and played AMAAAZING ,butttttt, he will never get the same rhythm against Rafa. NEVER!

    I am really confident of a Rafa win. Sure, anything’s possible and Stan is a very high quality opponent. But, very very unlikely Rafa will not win his 10th.

    Reply

      • One more thing about Djoko vs Stan at FO2015, Djoko had to deal with Murray over five sets in the SF spread over two days so he didn’t have a one day break from SF to Final. Physically he might be affected.

        Djoko hit a flatter DHBH which would not have troubled Stan’s SHBH and so he didn’t have Rafa’s advantage over SHBH players on clay. Had Djoko played like he did vs Thiem, i.e. taking the ball early and rushed Stan, he might stand a chance; but, Stan was too strong on that day and Djoko wasn’t in tip top conditions physically imo, hence he couldn’t do much to counter Stan’s aggressive hard hitting. Still, Djoko won a set and had his chances to push it to five sets, though he would still lose the match imo.

        Reply

    • VR, I’m with you here, and I think Rafa will beat Stan in straight sets, just like I predicted that Rafa would beat Thiem in straight sets.

      Both Stan and Thiem come with SHBH, and we saw how Thiem was trapped at his BH corner busily defending against a Rafa’s ruthless topspin lefty FH and many many times without success!

      I agree too that Stan doesn’t have good enough ROS and Rafa’s crafty lefty serves will give Stan problems. Of course it all depends on how Rafa plays that day, the main thing is he has to calm his nerve and concentrates on the job at hand.

      Reply

  124. I so agree with you vr. Theim felt it today and Wawrink awill get a taste on Sunday. That forehand when on song is deadly. plus, 80+ degree and sunshine. Stars are aligned for La Decima

    Reply

  125. I got a great feeling that Wawrinka is going to beat Nadal in the final. When Wawrinka is at his best, he is the best player in the world. Wawrinka still got his peak match to come, and I got a feeling, it will be in the final where he also will need it. Odds 5 on Wawrinka to win is a gift from the bookmakers.

    Reply

        • I am talking about Rafa’s record at RG. You cannot argue with those stats. Stan has not beaten Rafa at RG.

          Reply

        • Courier impressed with his analysis for a while but, like other closeted fedfawns, his confirmatory bias on Nadal clouds his objectivity.

          That Wawrinka had much to do with that AO win over an injured Rafa is quite telling. Nole mentally had checked out at the French and played way too passively.

          Disappointing. Thought we had a great analytical and objective mind on VR’s level but unfortunately not the case.

          Reply

          • Yeah, I’m disappointed, too, about “Jim Courier”. His analytics aren’t sound.
            But why are we even discussing it? Rafa and Wawa will settle this argument on Sunday with their raquets.

          • That is the most sensible thing I have heard yet! Despite all the talk, on Sunday this will be decided on the court by Rafa and Stan!

            The rest is just noise!

          • Rafa was fine for the first set and a half of that AP final and Stan was taking him to the cleaners. Obviously he ain’t gonna take Rafa to the cleaners here but don’t underestimate the threat Stan poses.

          • No Rafa was injured in practice itself that day. He was compromised in 3rd game itself and it completely aggravated i towards end of 1st and he had to take a medical timeout .

        • Ridiculous argument, lol! Stan has only played in three finals, and while he was good, he also had a lot of luck on his side. Rafa has played in many, many more slam finals, winning 14, which is eleven more than Wawrinka has. While I’m not saying that Rafa has won the cup for sure, statistics certainly don’t exactly favor Wawrinka. It’s more likely that Wawa loses his first slam final than that Rafa loses his first RG final.

          Reply

        • That’s because Stan had being to so few finals! He will lose this one, and we’ll stop hearing the blah blah blah about him not losing in slam finals!

          Reply

          • Yes, Stan’s sample size of three finals is simply too small for meaningful statistics. If he had been in just one final and had won it he would be at 100%, too 😉
            If he really manages to win on Sunday, then we can start and admire his unblemished final record with more justification.

    • Actually what’s most interesting about those videos is how short Novak and Rafa were leaving their shots – neither looking very confident or remotely at their best.

      Reply

  127. Rafa will not let Wawa play his game. Andy had a chance but he was too defensive when it mattered and it cost him match.

    People keep saying Thiem didn’t play his best, but the truth is he COULDN’T play his game because of Rafa being on the other side of the net in his killer mode! Rafa was nervous at the start of the match but as soon as he broke Thiem back the order was restored.
    Also some of you saying Rafa was not playing his best today. Well, most of it had to do with Thiem playing his hard hitting going for broke game, yet he got bageled in the third! That’s how good Rafa is!

    Hope those of you who predict Wawa’s win on Sunday do not start wining about Wawa being too tired etc. if he gets hammered by Rafa!

    I will only say: Nick was right!

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • Nats,

      I agree with you! Well said! Rafa was nervous in the beginning of the match. But he settled down after he got the break back and took control of the match. Thiem came out blasting, just as I thought he would. But Rafa took him out of his game.

      Rafa used his smarts, guile and experience to get the better of Thiem. All Thiem could go was bludgeon the ball, going for too much and not picking his spots and taking advantage of opportunities. They showed stats late in the match and Thiem only clay converted one out of seven break chances, while Rafa had four out of eight break chances converted. Wasn’t that evidence that Rafa was playing well enough to break Thiem 50% of the time?

      We keep hearing that Rafa isn’t playing that great, but he dismantled the guy who has been the second best player on clay this season.

      Thiem was exhausted and desperate and completely at a loss as to what to
      do in the third set.

      Reply

      • Well said Nats and NNY, ?

        Rafa didn’t even need to go into fifth gear to handle Thiem, he just played well enough to beat Thiem. Thiem’ gameplan was going for broke, hit as hard as possible, but Rafa wasn’t Djoko, Rafa didn’t give Thiem much chances to have his way.

        Comparing Rafa to Murray who used his guile against Stan, another big hitter, Rafa has more weapons than Murray. Murray was more defensive and had to use his defense and guile to fend off Stan’s attacks, and Stan had to go the distance to beat Murray.

        Rafa won’t be like Murray, he’s way more aggressive than Murray with his FH. Stan would have a harder time with Rafa, I won’t be surprised that Rafa beats Stan in straight sets too. Rafa is just so relentless when it mattered the most.

        Reply

  128. It doesn’t matter how good the opponent has been in major finals, nor does it matter if Rafa is 19 years old or 40- beating Rafa in a RG final would be the upset of the century! There is no greater challenge in the sport of tennis than beating Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros in the final. I would truly be shocked if Stan pulled it off… In my opinion, it would be the greatest win of any player ever haha! That’s why I just don’t see it happening. Take beating Pete Sampras at Wimbledon in the 1990’s and multiply that by a THOUSAND- that’s how monumental beating Rafa in a RG final would be, imo. So good luck, Stanislas- you’re gonna need it!

    Reply

    • MA,

      Interesting to read Uncle Toni’s thoughts. But the truth is that Rafa doesn’t have to be at his best to beat most players on clay. That’s part of his greatness.

      I think Rafa had a lot to do with Thiem going for too much and overhitting his shots. He was being pressured in a way that he wasn’t by Novak.

      It’s always worthwhile reading Uncle Toni’s thoughts because he knows Rafa better than any of us.

      Thanks!
      ?

      Reply

  130. Nadal is overrated due to his record on RG. Yes, it is very impressive, and yes, he have done amazing, BUT, and this is the big but, and people can say what they will, this is a fact. Nadal was peaking back then, and played the best tennis of his career, and that is just over, he will never ever be able to play as good as he once did, because of his playstyle. He is a grinder, and what made him perhaps one of the best grinders, especially on clay, was his fitness and atletism. He is still very fast, but he will never be as fast and filled with energy as back then. Wawrinka is a cannon, and when he gets in the zone, I feel like he is unbeatable over 5 sets. A younger Nadal, could maybe beat a prime Wawrinka, but it’s not a younger Nadal, and it is a prime Wawrinka. Too many live in the past including the bookmakers. They been doing it many times. I wouldnt be surprised if Wawrinka won 3-1. All I know is, that I am actually going to be surprised, if Wawrinka doesnt win the final. For me he is the superior player at this time, making Nadal a huge favorite, would not even make sense for me if it was the prime Nadal, but considered it’s not, I would have been more than happy with anything above 2.50 on Wawrinka tbh. And I wasnt expecting much more either, but I can only be happy. Nontheless it is going to be a great final for sure, that’s guarenteed.

    Reply

    • Federer is overrated because of the weak era.

      Ended in 2008. Now has losing records to both Rafa and Nole.

      Lucky to have a clay slam at all.

      Your sad attempt at “banter” was waaay too long and too full of tired overplayed fedfawn garbage.

      Reply

    • Okay I have a feeling bout Stan the Man in this one but I wouldn’t say Stan is the superior player right now. Look at what Rafa has done lately.

      Reply

    • ATP: I agree that this is not prime Nadal, but I’m not sure it’s prime Wawa either. He is 32, even if he hasn’t played as much tennis as the other top guys. I do think Stan’s best will beat Nadal’s best at this time, but that too is based more on the not-so-recent past (3 GS finals) than it is on current form. There’s no objective (i.e. performance-based) basis for saying that Stan is the superior player on clay right now, based on recent form.

      Reply

      • Joe, Stan’s best do beat Rafa’s best at this time? Any proof of that or it’s just your own wishful thinking?? What has Stan done lately, or at this time? Rafa is leading the race this season and he’s way ahead of Stan! To say that Stan’s best at this time do beat Rafa’s is laughable, as if Stan can just play his best or not at will! Anyway, there’s enough proof that Rafa’s best is way better than Stan’s, judging by what they have achieved and how often Rafa beats Stan.

        You know what, you always give me the feeling that you just want someone to beat Rafa, so that you can argue your case that Rafa is not that great! I think you’re just not happy that Rafa the counterpuncher beats most guys, including Fed, whom to you are more attacking players.

        As it is, you’re just looking for players hitting winners and winners, attacking and attacking and you assumed they’re good players and so can beat Rafa when they’re playing their best tennis!

        How often did Stan beat Rafa, and on clay?? You rather believed that Stan playing at FO2015 level could beat anyone including Rafa now, to me that’s wishful thinking. Don’t equate beating Djoko on clay to beating Rafa! Rafa is not the king of clay for nothing!

        Reply

        • Lucky, why do you care so much that I think Stan’s best will beat Nadal’s best at this time? You’ll notice that I qualified that claim by saying that it’s not based on recent form, but on not-so-recent evidence of Stan’s record in slam finals.

          I’m obviously putting a lot of stock on the fact that Stan simply seems to be a different and much better player in GS finals than he is at pretty much any other time. I think a large part of it has to do with being the underdog: having everyone else think that you can’t win, but believing that you can. I don’t guarantee that Stanimus Prime will show up; in fact, on the Nadal-Wawa preview page I put it at only slightly over 50% that he will. And if he doesn’t, I predict that Nadal will win fairly easily.

          For all (like you) who think that there’s just about no chance Rafa can lose, just remember that Stan was a far bigger underdog in 2014, 2015, and 2016 slam finals than he is for tomorrow’s match.

          I agree, as I think I said

          Reply

          • Joe, the AO 2014 final Rafa was injured, who could foresee that happening? USO2016 final, I don’t think Stan was playing very well, it’s just that Djoko played horrible and was fortunate to reach the final. As for the FO2015 final that you often like to mention, don’t forget Djoko had to play the SF vs Murray over two days, hence he didn’t have a day’s rest unlike Stan.

            While Stan was playing well in that final, I don’t think he’s unbeatable and a fit and healthy Rafa would beat him, as always on clay, IMHO! You like to make it sound as if Stan at his best could beat anyone including the big four, but I would say only when they’re not at their best. Their respective results and achievements tell us so.

            You know what, you’re always doubting Rafa, and each time Rafa proved you wrong. I hope and I think he will prove you wrong on Sunday again.

    • What you are particularly underestimating here is Nadal’s offensive abilities. The Nadal you’re watching now is not the counter-puncher that played Roger 10 or 12 years ago at all, he is playing much more aggressively these days.

      I want to see a good final and I hope Wawa makes a game of it, but I don’t think he is unbeatable over five sets by any means. He is able to up his level for them, but he still loses them sometimes, even when he’s playing well.

      Reply

      • TTWD, I know that you are not a Nadal fan, but your analysis is more objective. Rafa’s game has indeed evolved quite a bit again. I think that many non-fans simply don’t watch enough Rafa matches and therefore miss his developments. Of course I don’t blame them. It’s natural. I only watch players I don’t like when they play in a match which I’m interested in. But I always smile when I read that he’s simply a counterpuncher, grinder and moom baller. They also miss what a good tactician he is.
        While Rafa seems to be near his very best on clay right now (some journos like Wertheim and Steve Flink even claim that he’s better than ever, but that might be a bit deceptive because he didn’t face all that much opposition so far) I’m not so sure if Wawa is really near his best beast mode. And he’s actually one year older than Rafa and was just on the brink of defeat and had to play a gruelling 5-setter. If it becomes a dog fight in the heat on Sunday it might catch up with him. I have no idea anyway how Stan fares in very hot conditions. My guess is that, while Rafa isn’t as heat proof as he used to be, he might be holding up better, especially since he hardly spent any energy on his way into the final.

        Reply

        • Thanks littlefoot, I generally try to be objective, although it’s not always easy to keep the mindset. You seem to do a good job at it yourself. One has to admire Nadal as a tactician, and he is certainly more than a counterpuncher. That style is kind of like a ‘default’ mode for him, but he can play very aggressively, and change his approach when necessary.

          I think he probably is close to his best on clay at the moment, but it’s a hard thing to assess. Different elements of his game have gone up and down over the years, the same’s happened with Old Fed too. Right now Rafa looks great, in this sort of attacking mode on clay it is like he has the ball on a string, sending it out left then right, almost changing direction at will. He is shortening the points, and at 31, it’s clearly the right way to go.

          Wawa – well, the semi may take a bit of a toll on him, although most of his matches have been pretty routine. I don’t think he really is at ‘beast mode’ either, but his form is good. Murray is no Nadal on clay, but he was impressive in those first four sets.

          I will be tipping Nadal in the final, I think he deserves to be a heavy favourite, despite Stan’s clay abilities and finals record (Nadal is 9-0 at the FO, so someone’s record has to be blemished, one way or the other). I hope Stan can bring his best game though, as if he does, it will be a worthy final.

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        • At tennis.com, they’re comparing the 2017 Rafa on clay to the 2007 Rafa. They’re now doing this comparison for Rafa just like what they had done comparing the 2017 Fed to the 2006 Fed on the HCs in the first quarter of the respective seasons.

          Those who said Rafa was better in 2007 cited the fact that he beat Delpo (Delpo in 2007? Come on!), Djoko (Djoko wasn’t even no.3 back then) and Fed back then at the FO. I seriously doubt that Rafa was better in 2007 than in 2017, except that he’s more youthful, quicker and more powerful.

          I would say the 2008 version of Rafa at the FO was the best version of Rafa ever, at that time he did beat Djoko who was already the third best player behind him and Fed; not to mention beating everyone else handing out bagels and breadsticks, including Fed in the final. The 2008 FO Rafa was both great in offense and defense, and his BH plus FH were at their best at that time.

          Rafa of 2017 FO is not so much about speed and power or defensive skills; its more about his all round game and good tactical play, being more offensive than defensive. He won’t be better than his 2008 or 2010 version, but he’s not too far behind those imo, even better than his 2013 version, except maybe that SF where he played an epic match vs the formidable Djoko.

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      • Nny & Hawks!…When we don’t like about someone…especially that someone collecting a silverware non stop and on the verge of collecting an important one on sunday..we feel a little jealous and angry..because our fav maybe not playing or out already[and i’m not talking about Andy fans here]…and we just want to lashed out to everyone available,just so we can feel better…IMO,Jim Courier and MainATP just want to bait us…don’t fall into their trap…just keep calm and enjoy this moment with wonderful feelings…Remember!

        http://scontent.cdninstagram.com/t51.2885-15/s480x480/e35/13183410_1004837119591973_643985470_n.jpg?ig_cache_key=MTI1MDk1MzI2MTI5Nzk0MTgwOA%3D%3D.2

        Reply

        • MA,

          Thanks! I will take your advice! I have been on such a high today with Rafa’s win! I don’t want to let anyone spoil it.

          I think you are right about the motivation for those posts. Not worth being baited by any of it!

          You are my inspiration!
          ???

          Reply

          • Yeah Nny!!….There’s always someone who don’t like Rafa and is very happy to see him lose…so,they will do anything to make their ‘don’t like’ feelings be known…but,we are much much better than that..just shrug it off okay?

        • Of course you are bang on as usual MA.

          But I’m having good fun with them. Like shooting fish in a barrel. Too easy LOL.

          Reply

          • I know Hawks!Hahaha…I wish to see u handle Rafa hater’s on TX…God!it’s painful to read their comments there!

          • They keep banning me. I’ve had several monikers there. Truth hurts lol.

            Not a fair playing field.

          • Yeah Hawks!It’s a shame tho’…i really really love to see u there…it’s a shame too when you’re there,we still didn’t know each other…otherwise,it’s going to be awesome trading comments with u there hawks!!

  132. No idea why you are bringing Federer into this. This is between Wawrinka and Nadal. Nadal WAS the king of clay, and versus a prime Wawrinka, he would need to build a timemachine and get his younger self back, because he won’t beat prime Wawrinka with his current form, noone would.

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    • Because it’s obvious you are blinded by being a fedfawn and putting hopes on just another incompetent Swiss when it comes to playing an in form Rafa.

      Hope this helps.

      Reply

    • MainATP,according to you Wawrinka is now the new king of clay? 😉
      Well, let’s wait and see how this is going to play out, lol!
      Again, I’m not saying that Rafa has bagged the cup already, but some analysts here are more driven by wishful thinking than any expert knowledge.

      Reply

      • The funny thing is that Rafa just clobbered the second best clay courter of the season without even having to play at his best, while Wawrinka was just dragged through a gruelling five setter by a slumping player (although admittedly the No 1 – for now) who is no clay expert at all. And yet – their conclusion is that Wawrinka will win for sure 🙂

        Reply

    • Sorry this is not prime Stan; the prime Stan appeared in FO2015 where he almost steamrolled everyone. The 2017 Stan has to fight so hard to put away a Murray who’s still finding his way back; Stan won’t be that fortunate against the real king of clay!

      Reply

  133. To beat Rafa in RG final, it will be only possible if Wawa is paired with Fed playing double against single Rafa.

    #RealityJokes

    Bet your house for anyone who thinks Wawa would win, if you dare.

    Reply

    • Let Rafa play and win it. There is nothing guaranteed.

      I remember you Fg even saying with complete confidence about AO final but that one played out differently.

      Reply

  134. AO is a little bit different.

    All of a sudden, fed just keep beating Rafa on hard court in 2017. There was never any precedence indicating this. Rafa is always unlucky in AO, but it is different in RG. Furthermore Rafa lost repeatedly in AO final, there were some bad luck in all those three finals.

    Fed who played best of clay court match beating super man Nole in 2011 RG, was made helpless by Rafa in final. 2017 Rafa is so much more dominant than 2011 Rafa. That is my reasoning in seeing this final outcome.

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  135. Stan has the ability to win this match if he catches fire which I think he will because it is a slam final and he seems to do so in these big matches. You guys are making a mistake by totally ruling out Rafa losing this. However, if Rafa takes Stan to the cleaners, you can shun me for what I am saying lol

    Reply

  136. Wawa said it himself, the biggest challenge in men tennis is beating Rafa in RG final.

    Would love to watch a thrilling match worthy of GS final though, rather than a beat down like yesterday. Maybe something like 2011 final.

    Reply

      • Stan is the distinct underdog in this match, which imo suits him much better than being slightly favoured, as he was against Murray.

        I’m not exactly sure what the head pointing gesture means, but I think it has to do roughly equal parts with playing smart and believing you can win against a favoured opponent. There was very little head pointing in the match against Murray.

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  137. Only watched the first two sets; a few comments. Thiem obviously did not play well, as he said afterwards. Nadal had a role in that, of course, but imo it was not a huge one. Mostly, Thiem didn’t approach his level that he achieved against Novak, and nothing less was ever going to cut it. Rafa’s winners/unforced errors were about even, and I didn’t think the FH was a major factor. The big difference in the first two sets was that Nadal played the big points better, in particular, his break point conversion rate was much better. Not a huge surprise.

    As I saw it, the most important dynamic in general (which had a parallel in the Wawa-Andy match) was that Thiem wasn’t connecting often enough on his big groundies early on and actually went away from the only strategy that was ever going to deliver the victory. Even in the latter stages of the first set, he was hitting with less pace, more topspin, and much shallower in the court. That sunk him, imo. I disagree with Lucky that Thiem has the advantage in baseline rallies. To do that, one must either be able to hit winners more consistently, or miss less often, than the opponent. Thiem could do neither, which goes a long way toward explaining his loss.

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    • Joe, that’s on the assumption that Thiem is hitting without missing with his heavy ground strokes. Rafa didn’t engage in too many long rallies with Thiem here, only a few, because Thiem was over hitting, trying to blow Rafa off the court. If Thiem had more patience and chose the right moment to pull the trigger, it’s hard to contain him. Of course that’s not easy to do against Rafa, as Rafa won’t let him have the time to do so ( and that’s why I said, IF Rafa chose to engage in long rallies with Thiem, Thiem would win, but Rafa was wise enough in this match not to do so!).

      Reply

    • Joe, Rafa as a lefty had successes attacking Thiem’s SHBH time and again. Rafa was controlling the rallies and Thiem rarely had the chance to hit his explosive FH. As I said before, Rafa would use his lefty topspin FH to full advantage against a righty SHBH player on clay.

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      • And Joe, if you failed to see how Rafa’s FH did the damage (pining Thiem to his BH corner and forcing errors) then I don’t know what match you’re watching.

        Rafa’s BH was also good enough to hit to Thiem’s FH to open up the court before going to Thiem’s BH.

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        • Lucky, do you have a link to detailed match statistics? I find it very hard to get them, but my sense from the first two sets was that Thiem was more error prone on the FH than BH; most of those shots were coming from Rafa’s BH not his FH.

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          • Joe, Thiem made more errors on his FH than his BH no doubt, but that’s not due to Rafa always hitting to Thiem’s FH. It’s because Rafa was attacking Thiem’s BH most of the times, forcing errors or weak returns from that wing and so Rafa was then able to attack Thiem’s FH. Thiem was then forced to cover his FH and he overhit many of them.

            Rafa was attacking Thiem from both wings, moving Thiem from side to side along the baseline but when he attacked Thiem on the BH, Thiem was often stuck there defending.

          • That’s not how I saw it, Lucky, though I’d have to study closely to make a judgment of the sort you’re making. At the very least, the fact (if it is one) that Thiem made more FH than BH errors seems to undermine the claim that Rafa’s (mostly CC) FH was doing most of the damage.

            I don’t actually think Rafa played that well (neither did Uncle Toni); it was more that Thiem didn’t deliver the performance he was capable of.

          • Watch the match Joe, Rafa was hitting to Thiem’s BH very often. The pattern vs SHBH players on clay is always similar, attack the BH to extract errors, or weak replies and then attack. Don’t just see the stats, watch how the match was played.

            Rafa played well enough to win, not necessary to be at his best yet, and that’s the scary part, because he still can raise his level when he has to. And, you think Thiem didn’t play well because he didn’t wanted to? It’s because he’s being pushed by Rafa to go for more, rushed to hit his FH and so the errors.

  138. Lest anyone doubt that I recognize: Another great victory for Nadal, who did not play his best, but still won fairly easily against the player with the second best record this clay court season. Obviously, that speaks volumes. If both Rafa and Stan play at the level they did in their respective SFs, I have little doubt that Nadal will win easily, possibly in straights. Now, I don’t think Stan will play at that level: I think he will lift his game considerably. But that’s another story.

    Reply

    • Stan might well lift his game if he has left enough in the tank, but so will Rafa. And while Stan is often credited with playing smart, Rafa often doesn’t get enough credit for using his brain at least as much as his brawn. Personally I think he’s one of the best tacticians out there and when fully fit he is able to execute not only a plan A but also a plan B and C. Thiem was sorely lacking in this department yesterday. I’m also a bit surprised that Thiem’s young age and inexperience is used as an excuse. He’s not a teenager anymore and has been playing Rafa often enough this season. Rafa at Thiems age was beating Roger on all surfaces!
      The match yesterday showed IMO also that in Rome Rafa wasn’t fully motivated to beat Thiem. While I don’t want to accuse him of outright tanking, he probably decided to switch into a lower gear. At his age he knows how to pick his fights and he wisely decided that winning in Rome wasn’t worth jeopardizing RG.

      Reply

  139. Watched the Djoko vs Thiem match again. I do feel that Thiem is the next clay court king in the making. He will not have Rafa’s success on clay (who has?) but with his spin and pace on his shots, big serve, speed and power, he will win many titles (and important ones) on clay. He just has to add in new dimensions into his game and keeps improving, perhaps works on some strategies and some court craft instead of just hitting hard.

    Reply

    • Yeah I agree with this. Despite not being much of a challenge for Rafa, Thiem should be good enough to win at least one FO. He’s 23, and he’s got a sturdy, powerful game in the Wawrinka-mould. The interesting question is, how long will it take? In a way, it’ll be sad if this new generation has to basically wait until the old guys retire in order to win slams. A credit to the Big four, but a qualifier on the new gen.

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      • There’s no need to be sad for the new gen guys, the big four are aging, their time will come. Even the Raonic gen will also benefit once the big four era is over, maybe just like in the transition period from Sampras era to Fed era.

        Seriously, we don’t see players winning > 10 slams too often, so I doubt without the big four, players like Kei, Raonic or Thiem, Goffin, Dimi are going to win many slams each, perhaps they’ll share the spoil, each winning two or three or four slams? They (the Raonic gen) will have to fight with the next gen i.e. Alex Zverev, Khachanov, Chung etc.

        The ones that I really feel sad about are the likes of Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, Gasquet and maybe Monfils too. They spent their prime within the big four era, couldn’t beat the big four even though they reached the slam finals or SFs. It’s only the two giants – Delpo and Cilic – and Stan who are able to win slam(s) and beating the big four to do so.

        Reply

        • I won’t feel sad for the new gen guys, it’s more that it’ll be somewhat disappointing if they can’t even really effect a ‘take over’ from them, i.e. they rely on biding their time. I guess Kyrgios, Thiem and Zverev now have some wins against the top guys, but it remains to be seen if they will do anything at the slams while the Big 4 are still consistently in the GS finals. True though, the Big 4 level of dominance is rare indeed, it may go unmatched for a very long time.

          I think Raonic should get at least one slam, I am a bit more confident on him than Goffin, Dimi and Kei, although they should all at least have a chance. I can see Kyrgios & Zverev making it hard for them, but it’s hard to predict these things. Kyrgios could win a bunch if he finds the consistency and avoids injuries, but who knows, he may be plagued by those things for a long time.

          And yeah, I do feel sorry for some of those guys, particularly the first three. Gasquet is talented and I love watching the backhand, but I think he’s not quite on their level. Monfils has always had a lot of talent and athletic ability, but tactically he has never been good, which is a shame.

          Reply

  140. As John McEnroe rightly said: clay court tennis is not a sprint, it’s a marathon! And it’s more true for RG! So, unless Thiem learns to be patient, focus on point construction rather than just trying to hit through his opponents, he will be losing the big matches at RG! His coach knew that from the get-go, there was no mind games in his pre-match statements, just honesty! Thiem was able to beat sub par, nervous and low on confidence Novak who is obviously not back to near his best, so it was an easy target! Rafa was never gonna let Thiem hit his winners but instead pushed him back and forced him to make errors..Great Rafael! The King one and only!

    Just for the record I don’t think it will be an easy one with CryBaby tomorrow. He can play on clay, he proved it. However, saying that Wawa is the second best ever on clay is just pure blindness and wishful thinking. And it’s disrespectful to Nole. Just because he is in the slump this year does not erase his records on clay and the fact that he has more than often been able to take it to Rafa on clay!

    Reply

    • No way Nole is second best clay player ever. That would be Borg, and even for current players, Federer gets the nod before Djokovic, imo.

      Reply

    • I agree with Nats regarding to Thiem needing to learn how to construct points on clay. There is no one better than Rafa when it comes to that. Rafa exposed Thiem’s ball bashing strategy and its limits. If Novak was even close to being the player who won 12 slams, he would have been able to do it.

      Historically Borg would be the second greatest clay court player. But if we are talking about this era, then it’s close between Novak and Fed for second best. Stan is not second best. No way.

      Reply

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