French Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Ferrer vs. Tsonga

A blockbuster semifinal lineup with two intriguing matchups is on tap for Friday. Top two tournament favorites Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will continue there rivalry while France’s own Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is set to go up against David Ferrer. A two-team panel presents differing views in its analysis of the action.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Ricky: While the French Open has delivered more than its fair share of enthralling wackiness, Djokovic and Nadal have mostly had things in cruise control throughout their respective treks through the bracket. The result is a blockbuster semifinal that every tennis fan in the world anticipated when the draw was revealed two weeks ago. When it comes to Grand Slam semis, this is as big as it gets.

The two best players in the world (contrary to what the rankings say at the moment) have taken turns being especially dominant this fortnight. Whereas Nadal dropped the first set in each of his first two matches, Djokovic won his first three rounds without surrendering a set and six of the Serb’s first nine frames were no closer than 6-3. Djokovic then needed four to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber before ousting Tommy Haas in a relatively competitive three-setter. At just about the same time, Nadal hammered Kei Nishikori 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 and steamrolled Stanislas Wawrinka 6-2, 6-3, 6-1.

Djokovic will take heart from his recent 6-2, 7-6(1) scalp of Nadal in the Monte-Carlo final. The world No. 1 also owns two additional clay-court victories over the Spaniard (Madrid and Rome in 2011). Still, the King of Clay is dominating their head-to-head series on the red dirt 12-3. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark at Roland Garros, where Nadal is 11-1 lifetime in sets against Djokovic. They faced each other in a rain-interrupted final last season and Nadal–despite playing in conditions that favored his opponent–triumphed in four. Friday’s weather forecast–80 degrees and sunny–should give an edge to the defending champ. Nadal’s groundstrokes will be flying through the air and jumping off the court, much like they have been throughout the second week and much different from the action he got on the ball in rounds one and two.

But to hell with all the previous analysis. Here’s all you need to know: Nadal is 57-1 lifetime at Roland Garros, 26-0 in his last 26 matches at his favorite tournament, and he has won the thing seven times in eight previous appearances. How can you pick against this kind of machine? Nadal in 4.

Chris Skelton: Lingering in the Djokovic’s memory, no doubt, is the heartbreaking loss Nadal inflicted on him in last year’s final. That match ended Djokovic’s dominance over his archrival at majors and underscored the loss of his 2011 clay edge over Rafa. But this year the Serb appeared to recapture some of that edge by dominating Nadal to win the Monte-Carlo title. He will carry his momentum from conquering that long-held bastion of the Spaniard into Paris.

Many observers feel that a player must learn how to lose a Roland Garros final before he can win the title here. Advancing progressively one round deeper into the draw each year, Djokovic will have learned lessons from the 2012 loss, as bitter as it was. He looked psychologically overtaxed at both the beginning and end of that match, struggling to master his nerves as he donated early service breaks and then crumbling ignominiously with a double-fault on match point. Djokovic should feel less pressure having survived that experience. To paraphrase what he said in a similar situation against Roger Federer at the US Open, the worst that can happen is just another loss to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.

Meeting Nadal before the semifinal also should reduce Djokovic’s nerves, as should the absence of the last year’s quixotic quest to simultaneously hold all four major titles. His performances through five rounds have revealed a more composed, poised competitor. Thrust to the brink by both Tsonga and the unheralded Andreas Seppi at Roland Garros 2012, Djokovic has lost one total set and never looked in serious danger of elimination. He will have kept more physical and emotional energy in reserve this year to weather his latest grueling contest with Nadal.

While the intangibles remain on the defending champ’s side, his rival has shown that his advantages in this matchup can translate to clay. Djokovic’s versatile backhand and his lethal return of serve will continue to trouble Nadal. Like most heavily-hyped encounters, this match probably will fall short of expectations. Djokovic in 4.

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(4) David Ferrer vs. (6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Ricky: If you’re Tennis Channel, NBC, a fan of Roger Federer, or a fan of Andy Murray, you may not be amused with the “other” French Open semifinal. But if you’re a knowledgeable, hardcore tennis, Ferrer vs. Tsonga is as good as it gets. It’s a change of pace for a major semifinal (Ferrer has now reached this stage six times, Tsonga five). It’s a matchup we almost never see (they have played three matches and seven total sets against each other). It’s an extreme contrast in styles (Ferrer’s counter-punching vs. Tsonga’s power). Finally, it’s a showdown between two players who are positively on fire (neither man has lost a single set this fortnight).

Surface should be the deciding factor in the outcome of this one. Ferrer is an outstanding all-court player, but he has always been at his best on the slow stuff. Twenty-three if his 38 career final appearances have come on clay, including three of five this season. Ferrer’s winning percentage at Roland Garros is by far his best of the four slams, whereas it is the second worst of the four for Tsonga. The Frenchman’s strategy will be the same as it is against Nadal–serve huge and serve out wide, then bludgeon forehands into the open court to end points as quickly as possible. This is a tactic Tsonga is capable of executing on a consistent basis, but the task is more difficult on clay than on any other surface. Ferrer–who wields arguably the best return of serve in the sport–will hope to play extended baseline rallies, and he should be able to do just that amidst these conditions.

Tsonga is a modest 1-3 lifetime in major semifinals, but that is far better than Ferrer’s 0-5 mark at the same stage. Still, Ferrer has an excuse. All five of his losses have come against the current Big 4 (0-2 vs. Djokovic, 0-2 vs. Murray, and 0-1 vs. Nadal). Without question, this is the Spaniard’s best opportunity to reach a Grand Slam title match. Throughout his career, Ferrer has always been one to maximize his talent and take advantage of opportunities. He should do it again on Friday, but it won’t be easy with Tsonga playing the best tennis of his life and playing it front of giddy French fans. Ferrer in 5.

Chris: One man seeks his first final at his home major. The other man seeks his first major final ever. If you think Djokovic and Nadal are the only men who have something at stake on Friday, think again.

This evenly-matched semifinal could come down to who handles the pressure of the moment more sturdily. Tsonga bears the hopes of a nation, which he has learned how to shoulder with poise as he blasts his serve-forehand combinations through the terre battue. For his part, Ferrer will know that such a golden opportunity may not come again in his career. Rarely can someone outside the top four reach a major final without facing any of the top four. Ferrer handled this pressure well to win his first Masters 1000 title in an imploded Paris Indoors draw last fall, but he will step into a much harsher spotlight here.

Tsonga cannot linger in the euphoria of his quarterfinal upset over Federer, for Ferrer has made a career of punishing the complacent or unwary. In most circumstances, the Frenchman would likely fall victim to exactly that trap, but maybe not th
is time. Often unable to maintain his focus from one match to the next throughout his career, Tsonga has built on a steadily accelerating wave of momentum throughout this tournament. Perhaps aided by new coach Roger Rasheed, the world No. 8 has rediscovered the belief that deserted him for much of 2012-13.

But more than recent form suggests Tsonga can keep his run alive. Long a serious flaw, his two-handed backhand held firm when Federer tested it, penetrating the court with depth and accuracy. Ferrer picked apart that stroke with great success in their earlier matches, but he may find it tougher to crack this time. Also, Tsonga won their only previous match at a major, and the best-of-five format allows him to find his groove, lose it, and find it again. The home crowd should boost his spirits again, as it did against Federer, while Ferrer may struggle to embrace the moment if this match becomes a memorable epic…which would not be unexpected. Tsonga in 5.

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