French Open R4 previews: Nadal vs. Nishikori, Gasquet vs. Wawrinka

After Nadal lost a set to the Japanese star in their first meeting five years ago, he has swept their remaining three meetings without losing more than four games in any set.  None of them has come on clay, which should tilt the balance of power even more clearly in Nadal’s favor.  If he brings his flustered, disheveled form of the first week into the second week, however, Nishikori has the coolness, consistency, and belief to punish him.  The last Asian player left in either draw recently defeated Roger Federer on the Madrid clay, and he owns victories over Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer, as well.

Nadal needs to start this one more solidly than he did his three previous matches, or he might dig an early hole for himself again.  Even if the seven-time Roland Garros champion does trail at some point, Nishikori’s vanilla baseline game should eventually play into Nadal’s hands.  Lacking massive power from his serve, the 13th seed relies on the same tenacious rallying style that Nadal does but executes it less effectively.

Pick: Nadal in 3
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The Swiss No. 2 could have renamed himself “Wowrinka” after a clay season in which he surged back to the Top 10.  Just outside it now, he seeks to reach his first Roland Garros quarterfinal with a fifth victory over a Top 10 opponent this spring.  This match will feature a scintillating battle of the two finest backhands in the men’s game; Wawrinka’s the sturdiest and Gasquet’s the most aesthetically pleasing.  A strong four-set victory over fellow dark horse Jerzy Janowicz on Saturday will give Wawrinka valuable momentum for tackling an opponent who did not lose a set in the first week.

Once fallible when playing in or for France, Gasquet has improved in that area during this mature phase of his career.  He remains highly unreliable when sustained adversity strikes or when a match grows tense, as this showdown should.  Remarkably, these two men have not met since 2006, but the contrast between Wawrinka’s outstanding month of May and Gasquet’s modest results this spring gives the No. 9 seed an edge in the most intriguing match of the day.

Pick: Wawrinka in 5
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