French Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

Thirteen-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal will take on the talented Italian teenager Jannik Sinner on Monday for a spot in the French Open quarterfinals. It is a rematch of last year’s quarters.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (18) Jannik Sinner

Clay-court king Rafael Nadal will face his sternest test of the fortnight on Monday in the form of Italian youngster Jannik Sinner. The two men have met just twice before, but their matches so far have been fairly high quality and also entertaining. They first met in the COVID edition of the French Open last October and again in Rome a few weeks ago. Nadal won both matches in straight sets, but Sinner made him work for it each time.

The Italian nearly found himself out of Paris in the first round. Pierre-Hugues Herbert had a match point against him, but Sinner fought his way back to win in five. Sinner’s form has been a bit off since he made the final at the Miami Masters, but he is capable of playing fantastic clay-court tennis–as he showed in his run to the semifinals in Barcelona.

Sinner

Nadal has been slightly off his best as well this week, unable so far to replicate the form he displayed in his run to the final in Rome–where he got yet another win over chief rival Novak Djokovic. Still, Nadal hasn’t dropped a set and he showed his signature grit and determination against Alexei Popyrin in the first round. The Australian served for the third set only to have Nadal come roaring back with a break and then a comfortable tiebreak to close it out in straights.

Sinner has the kind of game and has enough control and concentration to make Nadal uncomfortable. He should play well enough to at least give himself some chances to get in front of Nadal, as he did in Rome a few weeks ago. This one will be entertaining, but since it’s Nadal at Roland Garros there really can’t be another pick than the Spaniard.

Nadal is just better in the big moments of a match, particularly on clay when he can give himself the time and space to work himself into a game.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 4

Ricky pick: Nadal in 4

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WWW: Nadal vs. Sinner?

135 Comments on French Open R4 preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

  1. Swiatek gets the night match!
    Rafa is on after Nole. Not before 4 French time.
    It is supposed to be 25 Degrees tomorrow afternoon and sunny. That helps Rafa!😀

  2. Rafa was just being first week Rafa at RG. He doesn’t seem to be at his best, not consistently at least, but still wins in straight sets. His strokes often lack depth, the DTL forehand is rarely attempted and pretty far from the line, the unforced error count is rather high. On the other hand his defence is superb: good returns, lobs, slices, passing shots, incredible angles and overall he’s looking pretty spry.
    I think that Nadal can lose tomorrow his first set at RG in a while. I voted accordingly, however, if Sinner could not take him a set neither in much more favourable conditions last year nor in better conditions last months he might as well not do it tomorrow either. I do expect a typical small dip in Rafa’s game in the 4th round and Jannick may as well take advantage if it.

  3. Nadal wasn’t at his best in the early stages at Rome. He was a point away from losing to Shapovalov, yet hrle still beat Sinner in straights. I’m not convinced Jannick wins a set tomorrow.

  4. Nadal is often not at his best in the first week but he wasnt 35 then either. This smells of selective bias. As fit as Nadal is for his age, quite possibly the demands of the ATP at his age is all starting to catch up with him.

  5. Nadal’s draw is way too easy until the final again. He’s been a big earner for the FTA over the years, almost like part of the furniture.

      • Was just checking out the WTA; looks super competitive at the moment. So much talent going around. Serena is a brave lady for hanging around.

  6. Rafa is already annoying me!! Y give the break back, and making tonnes of UEs!!! Sigh! C’mon Rafa, this us where you send a stern message to the locker room. Stop forming the ass!!!!!!

    • Mona,

      I am very frustrated with Rafa. He gets the early break but gives it right back. He is letting this guy in the match.

      Not good right now.

      • Rafa just like to make things difficult for no good reason! Giving Sinner confidence especially after watching what happened to Novak earlier!

    • Let’s hope he settles down after losing the first set!! But that’s not a good way to start the match!!! Geeze!!!

    • They will never stop talking about that match! Sinner will give everything in first set, playing hard and tiring himself out when he knows full well he’ll have to go 5 to take Rafa down here!

      • Mona,

        I am not having any of it! That is ancient history. Sometimes I have to mute the sound and tune out the commies. They are annoying.

        I would like to think you are right that Sinner will go for broke in this first set but not have enough to hang with Rafa.

    • Didn’t look he had any problems to me. Making excuses I think. Soderling played out of his skin and would beat this Rafa 3-0

    • True! He has not been clutch in my opinion bcos if he was there is no way he would be down a break in the first set especially after securing a break. To be honest, Rafa is not as crisp as he was in RG 2020, and even then, he was still no 100%. However, Vamos, Rafa!!

  7. Rafa!! Oh man.. what is this? Is this a strategy? Give the man hope and then quash all over it.. has happened in all three matches now

    • I am happy it didn’t go to a TB! Although Rafa’s TB record is very respectable!

      Now I hope that now Rafa has won the 1 set, he opens his wings and let it rip!!!

    • Hahahahahahahha!! Let me tell you!!! Rafa has to make a clear statement here!! This is MY house, get it?!!!!! Now VAMOS!!!

  8. Rafa should play for health insurance for his fans.
    It’s seriously bad for your health to watch him sometimes.😀😀

    • amy,

      LOL! Yes! Because I am a wreck and we are now only just starting the second set!

      They showed the stats for the first set. Rafa only getting in 55% of first serves but making 85%. Second serve winning 47%. Sinner’s serving stats were not great either. Also only getting 50 something % of first serves in,

    • Really, I notice a little while ago i was match and all of a sudden the screen got a bit darker. So that’s what it was?

  9. Ah, I like how Rafa is playing now, fancy free!! He’s letting it rip!!! Moving Sinner all over and around, hope this ends in 3!!

    • Well its not a good strategy bcos it’s giving me angina!! But at least he won second set.

      I may be wrong, but Sinner looks like he’s had enough!

  10. Cool Rafa breaks!! According to script.. this time he may go three breaks up and let him back…

    Get it done soon Rafa

  11. Ah! When Rafa is playing so free and with confidence it’s such a beautiful sight to see! This CC/DTLBH combo is a sight to behold!!

  12. Interesting.. sinner meets rafa one round early and loses one less game in each set compared to 2020 if Rafa can avoid dfs and hold serve

      • Yes! Not sure if it’s a back issue! But that 3rd set was indeed wonderful!! I love Bagels!! Hope Rafa can get to the finals, and do so not losing a set, lol!!

        • Well it started with his back issue.
          His game was exactly where it needed to be in the third though. No question that he can win the title if the dfs are fixed.

  13. So, either Rafa or Nole would play a night match on Wednesday. I do hope they are not going to give Rafa the night match

      • Apart from serve, I found the rest of the performance good. Slightly nervy start, but to me this reminds 2014 FO match with Ferrer, he was nervy there as well and then he just takes it to new level and I think Ferrer was hardly a match in last two sets. You can sense from his body language that he is getting comfortable in rallies, he starts sweating less and he just does not miss like the kind of level he achieved in majority of the match after first set. I think even if he loses first set due to nerves, he should regain that level and he becomes unplayable then. But better he conserves energy as he has got a tough draw and he is getting old !

        I think he will beat Djoker on current form, but I am sure Rafa will take one match at a time.

        • Like your analysis Fedexal and I think you are correct. A few adjustments here and there but every match is different. It’s how Rafa is able to elevate his game to play the player before him is what matters, and based on what I saw today, he will be ready. Today, he really looked happy to be on court, both wings were flying high, he was also testing them. I think he can do it. VAMOS, Rafatito!!

  14. Amy..when will u ever say anything good abt rafa 🙂 str8 sets n all u still doing is worrying .I never saw the match..so don’t know..but yes the DFS will be big issue against all the players left .Diego ,Djokovic ,tsitsipas etc

    Does berretini have a chance against djoko ?

      • Let’s hope he somehow wins amy..hook or crook. With DFS or whatever .let’s just hope he wills himself to win this french somehow

        • His game is there apart from the dfs sanju.
          But he is nervous early on.
          I really hope this stops soon.
          You could see Moya urging him on. There was great chemistry between them. I like that…

          • Could you believe at Rafa’s age he still needs breast milk, lol!! He better deal with these nerves ASAP!!

  15. If not for the troublesome DF’s, I would be really happy with this win. That was the only blip. But it is a concern because these DF’s cause Rafa to be more vulnerable to breaks of serve. This was something I thought Rafa resolved in Rome. But in the third set it all seemed to come together. He was in control all the way. No serving woes. Then his game comes together. He finished this match very strong and that is a good thing.

    This the fourth round. Now Rafa needs to go up a gear or two. Rafa has never been a player who DFs often. If he can deal with the serving issues, then I feel good about his chances.

    I did not think Sinner could beat Rafa. I thought that maybe he would take a set. But I hoped for a straight set win. Especially with Diego coming up. Rafa did what he had to do despite his serving yips. He knows what to expect with Diego. Hopefully we will see it all start coming together.

  16. Diego himself started slow today. Struff served for the first set TWICE and lost it!! Diego will certainly have his chances but only if Rafa allows it.

    A lot of the tennis players can’t play Rafa, especially on clay. They feel all they need to do is hit the ball hard to try to blow him off court. If that fails they then just crumble and die! And that’s what happened today with Sinner.

    I was very impressed with Rafa’s speed and movement. Ppl say he’s gotten slow but I didn’t find that today. They way he was moving from side to side and getting those balls back in play was just mind blowing! Rafa is 35 for real?!

  17. I didn’t realise either he or Nole will play the last night match.
    That’s not what I want for rafa. I bet it will be him though. 😠
    Diego has had a poor clay court season and hasn’t beaten any top players here. He surely can’t just lift his game out of nowhere.

  18. It’s going to be 26/ 27 Degrees when they go on court with a mixture of Sun and cloud.
    Rafa’s ball should be jumping up high.

    • Ohh..that’s great amy!..Everythings must be tip top for Rafa to face Schwartzy!…We all know how dangerous he can be!..
      Tho,if they were to meet in nite session,i also have no doubt Rafa will win!(Insyaallah!)😁

      • A little advantage here and there doesn’t hurt does it mira!😀
        The ball bouncing up high definitely helps him.
        Also easier for you to watch because of the time difference??

        • Though I don’t watch live. I can atleast sleep on time .the night match starts at 1230 am india time n till rafa wins , no sleep till 3/330 depending on duration of match

        • Hehehe…Definitely amy!…Every matches that r play day sessions is a bless amy!…but..for nite session?It’s a bit tough to wake at 3am!..tho not impossible!…esp when Rafa is playing!😁

          • Amy…well…yeah!…in a way i want Tsitsi win too..maybe if he go thru to the final,maybe it’s easier for Rafa to handle him compared to Zverev or Meddy😁…

            But,somehow i think Meddy will get away with a win today based on his h2h & some factor that we’ve already discussed here..

          • Ohh yeah Sanju!(insyaallah!)…Unless something unexpected appeared(of coz we don’t want that!)..

  19. I saw the highlights amy of yest..rafa was clearly sub-par first set ..forget 7 df..he was making many ue too..third set though was master class

    • He played really badly in the first set for several games sanju. Am sure it’s nerves because when he relaxes he plays amazing…

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