French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Norrie, Struff vs. Alcaraz

Rafael Nadal continues his quest for French Open title No. 14 against fellow left-hander Cameron Norrie of Great Britain on Saturday, while Spanish teenager Carlos Alcaraz faces big-serving German Jan-Lennard Struff.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Cameron Norrie

Rafael Nadal has faced Cameron Norrie twice already in 2021. The two men met at the Australian Open, while Nadal was nursing a back injury and again in Barcelona. Nadal won both matches in straight sets, but their encounter in Barcelona was a full-on drubbing–with Nadal dispatching Norrie 6-1, 6-4.

Nadal actually came close to dropping a set in the first round to talented Aussie Alexei Popyrin. The world No. 3 was forced to fight his way back from a break down to force a tiebreaker in the third, but break back he did; then he closed out the tiebreaker comfortably. Richard Gasquet, who has never beaten Nadal, was similarly sent packing in straight sets.

Perhaps on a low-bouncing hard court, Norrie would have a better shot at pushing Nadal. But in what has been Nadal’s playground for a decade and a half, the Brit simply doesn’t have the clay-court game to make trouble for the Spaniard.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 3

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How many games will Norrie win?

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (Q) Carlos Alcaraz

Spanish teen Carlos Alcaraz captured the tennis world’s attention in Melbourne at the start of the season in one of the Australian Open tune-up events. He took out David Goffin 6-3, 6-3 in the second round. He struggled a bit this spring, but he had an impressive run to the semifinals in Marbella just prior to coming to Paris. Alcaraz earned his spot in the main draw through qualifying. He’s currently No. 97 in the world.

Carlos Alcaraz

Jan-Lennard Struff scored a monster first-round upset win over No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev earlier this week, which went to five sets. He picked up a tidy straight-set win over Facundo Bagnis of Argentina in the second round, so he should have enough left in the tank for Friday.

Alcaraz has a bigger upside than Struff. He’s a teenager and poised perhaps for a Jannik Sinner-like breakthrough at any moment. However, Grand Slam results are often related to how well players handle pressure. In that sense, Struff has more experience and he has already exceeded expectations in Paris–owing to the difficulty of drawing Rublev in the first round.

Cheryl pick: Struff in 5

Ricky pick: Alcaraz in 5

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WWW: Struff vs. Alcaraz?

46 Comments on French Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Norrie, Struff vs. Alcaraz

  1. Alcarez in 4 (great value at 1.60 imo)
    I’ll go Cecchinato in 5 (it’s close)
    Federer in 3 (and it will need to be)
    Nadal in 3
    Schwartzman in 5
    Sinner in 4 (maybe 3)
    Djokovic in 3
    Berrettini in 3

  2. Can we just give Rafa credit for that cc backhand? That is how it’s done!

    Rafa does not have to be at his best now.he has to get through the early rounds and peak in the second week. So far he has done it without even dropping a set.

    This is to be expected. I had to mute the commies on the tennis channel because they were going on and on about this guy Norrie.

      • You’re right Amy. Not very convincing. And the draw is only getting tougher.
        At this point in the tournament, Djokovic looks like the most unbeatable/solid player.
        Also, on a good day Tsitsi, Med or Zverev can win vs top2 in the final.

      • Nole is super confident.
        If Rafa gets to the semis he will already have lifted his game so that will be completely different.
        Sinner is a big test because he can’t play as he did today. This has happened before of course.

        • But Djoker hasn’t played anyone who’s anyone!

          I saw only the last few games of Rafa’s match. Took me half an hour to recover, lol. Looked to me like Norrie has a pretty good return.

          • I was about to say the same thing, who has Novak played?!! Wait till Rafa meets somebody that matters and you will c a different Rafa!! Rafa has been so formidable at the FO that we have come to expect such a lofty standard from him, but it will not always be so year on year. His play has been a but sloppy at times here but he has not lost a set. I will start worrying if his level remains flat in the second week. Rafa knows how to win this tournament better than ANYONE else! I would cut him some slack! VAMOS!!

  3. So the match is over. Rafa wins in straight sets. He responded well in the third set. This time he finished the match strong,

    He has had ups and downs. The goal is to get through the early round matches. Rafa does not have to give a master class.

    Sinner will be his first challenge. I expect Rafa to be ready.

    • I hope you are right nny!
      He is making me incredibly nervous.
      I haven’t seen any of the last few tourneys while you have so your perspective is way better than mine. I hope!😀

  4. amy,

    I sense your nervousness, I know you posted that you couldn’t watch until RG. Rafa did very well in Rome. He served much better and just seemed more comfortable. He looked more like himself.

    It was a close battle with Novak, but Rafa won. He finished the warm up tournaments strong. I am just furious about the seeding and Rafa ending up in Novak’s half of the draw. Having Rafa, Fed and Novak all on the same half of the draw is bad for tennis. Now we have qualifiers getting to the fourth round because there is not enough depth in the other half of the draw.

    I know that Rafa has been up and down in the early rounds. But I think that is to be expected. He will get pushed by Sinner. The6 said that last year Sinner had a set point against Rafa. This should be his first real challenge. I expect him to step it up. I think he is on track to peak in the second week.

    I always get very nervous when it’s RG. Novak could sleep his way to the semis. Even if Fed should manage to get to the quarterfinals to meet Novak. I don’t see him winning. I thought Rafa responded well after having a dip in the second set. There were a few vintage Rafa shots in the third set.

    I will get more stressed with each match. We will see how he handles Sinner.

    • Nny, thanks for that darling.
      I have a lot of respect for your opinion.
      I really hope you are right as I am really suffering with nerves watching.
      Sorry if I am being over the top.

      • amy,

        I don’t usually get too nervous in the early rounds. I know that the goal is to just win. Even if it’s not pretty. I have noticed Rafa’s ups and downs. That’s why I am interested in the match with Sinner. Thus us where Rafa needs to start stepping it up.

        I thought he got a break when Rublev got knocked out. But if he has to face Schwartzman who may now be in decent form, that could be a physical battle. Rafa has a few more gears. He needs to start raising his level of play.

        You are not over the top! You are just being a Rafa fan who wants him to win this again!
        😘

  5. It’s true that after first three rounds ,novak is looking the sharpest and best. Let’s see how it will evolve next week

    Sinner ,Schwartz ,novak will not be easy .

    Rc must be very happy seeing novak ,no arm issues ..did you change your pick rc already ?

    • I can’t change my pick, nor would I, if I could, Sanju.

      My pick to win is Rafa.

      It was very hard for me to SEE Novak today because the only way I can watch him is if Tennis Channel chooses, and they chose to broadcast the American women’s match with Pegula v Kenin at that time. Novak’s match was broadcast on Tennis Channel Plus. TC plus is an expensive streaming service. If I was wealthier, I could budget it in. You can tell that I am cheesed off, but there is nothing I can do about it. lol, I should be used to Novak being shunned in America.

      • Oh gosh, I see Tennis Channel isn’t even showing the Federer match! Wow, I’m feeling the hard press to buy TC Plus. (Just kidding) What sort of desperate greed is this? Is this the new way? To even watch the RG final or say, Wimbledon, I have to buy TC plus. It should be criminal.

        • TC is going to show a replay of the Federer match at 6 pm edt today. Lord knows why they did not carry it live. I checked NBC and TC’s alternate (thanks so much, Rupert Murdock. NOT!) but nada.

          Unbelievable that NONE of the channels showed the #1 men’s player’s match except for the last 2 games. Do most American sports fans only watch Americans? I swear, if I were 20 years younger I’d move to Mallorca!

          I think we lucked out with Rafa’s match. Djoker finished early and the American womens’ match was on Lenglen before Rafa’s so…

          And why on earth is TC not showing Fed’s match live? They’re just doing junk stuff.

      • Agreed. Well, I can wait and watch Roger later. I’ve been tracking it on the RG app – which I like a lot! Very close so far but hopefully Roger will pull it out – and have a little something in the tank for Berretini. But RG isn’t really Fed’s goal this year. He’s gotten 3 good matches in so he’s met his objective.

      • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_Channel

        I already pay an arm and a leg to get DirecTV and Tennis Channel, and now I have to get TC plus to enjoy tennis. Sinclair Broadcast Group owns the whole thing. In fact, Sinclair Broadcast Group is eating up everything, year by year.

        As it is, Sinclair is a perfect situation if you want one entity to have this much power. To me, it is the worst nightmare situation. Even PBS is broadcasting programs with a certain slant, depending on where you live in America.

        It’s all about the money.

        • U guys have to move to my neighbourhood!..seriously!U guys only have to pay about 30USD per/month..and u guys can watch a Rafa,Roger,Novak’s match as much as u want!…There’s MLB,MLS,cycling,football,NBA,American football,Euro,..Anything!😃…Come!

          • Lol, I watch the matches on ESPN but today they didn’t show Rafa’s match for some reason and were playing the women’s match, can’t even remember who. So I was forced to live stream (free) to watch Rafa, sigh!

  6. Just from checking the score it seems to be very competitive. This is one that I wanted to watch, Fed has been gone so long and I wanted to see how he would do in his first tournament back.

    • Competitive is the word for it! TC isn’t showing Roger’s match yet, but they’re still promising to do it. Maybe they have to wait until it’s over to get it started. Dunno. Anyway the Old Man of the Alps is putting up a fight. 🙂

    • NNY, I suspect that NBC probably has the broadcast rights. I thought FOR SURE I was going to turn on NBC and find them airing it delayed at 4:00. I was wrong. hahahahaaaha.

      Still, how many people are actually PAYING for Peacock’s premium service to watch one match?

  7. Cheryl,

    I thought it had to be something to do with broadcast rights. I actually did check NBC to see if they had it just on a hunch. I was looking everywhere.

    I think it’s crazy to pay to watch one match!

    Fed won it in four sets. The old man lives to fight another day.

  8. In the third set I thought Fed looked done and dusted but the wiley coyote that he is just would not throw in the towel. Would love to see him play Novak though!!

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