French Open R3 previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Korda, Rublev vs. Arnaldi

The French Open heats up on Friday, literally and figuratively with the rain having finally moved out and seeded players starting to go head-to-head. One such showdown pits Carlos Alcaraz against Sebastain Korda.

(27) Sebastian Korda vs. (3) Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz and Korda will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time at the French Open when they meet again on Friday. They faced each other during third-round action in 2022, as well, when Alcaraz cruised 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. The Spaniard also dominated 6-3, 6-4 last summer at Queen’s Club to take a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head series. Korda’s lone victory came via a 7-6(2), 6-7(5), 6-3 decision at the 2022 Monte-Carlo Masters.

Having played only the Madrid Masters (lost to Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals) on clay because of a right-arm injury, Alcaraz went into Roland Garros with plenty of questions. Although the world No. 3 had more than enough answers to beat J.J. Wolf in straight sets and Jesper de Jong in four, he was far from his best in round two. Korda has also advanced with the loss of just one set, beating Harold Mayot and Soonwoo Kwon. Still, the 28th-ranked American is a modest 15-12 this season and 5-4 on clay. This could be another rout in Alcaraz’s favor if he is 100 percent physically, but even if it’s close he should still have the edge given Korda’s mental fragility at the business end of high-pressure matches throughout his career.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4

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(6) Andrey Rublev vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Rublev is–amazingly enough–still searching for first-ever Grand Slam semifinal appearance. The sixth-ranked Russian may have a difficult time even making an 11th quarterfinal because this is where his Roland Garros draw starts getting tricky, with Arnaldi in round three and perhaps Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last 16. That being said, it is one Rublev can navigate when he is at his best–and he is back to his best following a bad slump in March and April. The 26-year-old won the Madrid title and has opened in Paris with relatively routine defeats of Taro Daniel and Pedro Martinez.

Arnaldi is up to No. 35 in the world and this will probably be the last time in the foreseeable future that he is unseeded at a Grand Slam. The 23-year-old Italian has won 17 tour-level matches in 2024, including two this week at the expense of Arthur Fils and Alexandre Muller. Arnaldi is a very tough opponent, but he is 2-8 lifetime against top-10 opponents and lost his only previous matchup with Rublev 7-5, 6-3 last fall on the indoor hard courts of Vienna. Look for the favorite to have the upper hand in what should be an extremely entertaining contest.

Pick: Rublev in 4

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