French Open R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Almagro, Sock vs. Carreno Busta

SockAn all-Spanish affair between Rafael Nadal and Nicolas Almagro is set for Thursday at the French Open. Another Spaniard, Pablo Carreno Busta, is in second-round action against Jack Sock.

Nicolas Almagro vs. (6) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Almagro will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time during this current clay-court swing when they collide in round two of the French Open on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 12-1 in favor of Nadal, who is 9-1 at the expense of his fellow Spaniard on red dirt. They most recently faced each other last month in Barcelona, where Nadal turned in one of his best performances of the season en route to a commanding 6-3, 6-1 victory. Almagro’s lone win came last fall at the same Barcelona event, where he prevailed 2-6, 7-6(5), 6-4.

Despite his recent lopsided loss and Nadal’s 67-1 lifetime record at Roland Garros, Almagro should not consider this a lost cause. After all, Nadal has an alarming five losses on clay (nine overall) in 2015. Almagro, meanwhile, is coming back nicely from a foot injury with 13 match wins on the year following a 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(6) defeat of Alexandr Dolgopolov on Tuesday. Nadal kicked off his bid for a 10th title by cruising past French wild card Quentin Halys 6-3, 6-3, 6-4. Almagro will put up a fight, but he would rather contest this matchup on a fast hard court. Conditions are by all accounts slow and heavy in Paris and the underdog in all likelihood will once again be undone by Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand directed at his one-handed backhand.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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Jack Sock vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

To say Sock is making up for lost time would be a considerable understatement. The 22-year-old American missed the first two months of this season because of a hip injury and did not play until Indian Wells. He promptly reached the fourth round there, the third round in Miami, and captured a title on the clay courts of Houston. Sock, who is up to No. 37 in the world, opened in Paris on Tuesday with the biggest upset of the first round–a 7-6(7), 6-2, 6-3 drubbing of 10th-seeded Grigor Dimirov.

Up next for Sock on Thursday is Carreno Busta, whom he has never faced. The 61st-ranked Spaniard also kicked off his tournament in impressive fashion as he hammered Victor Estrella Burgos 6-3, 6-1, 6-0. Carreno Busta is just 8-13 on the season, but he appears to have emerged from a major slump. The 23-year-old reached the Estoril semifinals earlier this month to pick up some momentum prior to Roland Garros. Although the surface slightly favors Carreno Busta, Sock is underrated on clay and will have too much game for his opponent.

Pick: Sock in 4

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101 Comments on French Open R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Almagro, Sock vs. Carreno Busta

  1. I think that Rafa will have a bigger challenge in this match. If Almagro is getting back to good form, then this one could be tough. I am not sure that it’s going to be as lopsided as it was in Barcelona. I can see it being three close sets.

    I am going with Sock for the win in four against Carenno Busta. It is clay, but Sock is playing so well right now.

      • Ricky,

        You predicted 12 games or fewer, so that could include one really tight set. I think that Almagro is playing better. I know that Rafa is playing better for sure.

        Anyway, we will see. If it turns out to be fairly routine, then that will be good news. I set it to record since it starts at 5:00 am my time.

      • @filter

        You’re quite right but you conveniently don’t mention he was playing with wrecked knees and was out of tennis after RG for something like three months for treatment on them.

    • I can live with three tight sets if Rafa wins. When Nico’s backhand is clicking, he can be dangerous. Every time they play in Barcelona it’s like war out there.

  2. I expect the slow conditions on Chatrier to neutralize Nico’s devastating serve and help Rafa set up his shots to devastating effect. I also expect the 1st set to be an almighty tussle with Nico folding tamely in the 3rd.

    Vamos Rafa!

    • There are two atp stories in 2015 (so far): novak 2011 redux (more or less), and the greatest rivalry going: rafa vs rafa.

  3. If Almagro holds it together this could be tight, he’s improved a lot but that’s his whim (not as much as Verdasco though)

  4. I’m sorry nadline if I convey negativity. I’m not trying to unnerve anybody. I’m just expressing my thoughts for the match.
    I think my post is actually positive about Rafa’s prospects because I’m predicting he’ll win, easily if Almagro isn’t 100 % focused today.

  5. I don’t think there is any love lost between these two. Almagro’s overt triumphalism after his one and only win in their h2h was particularly distasteful to watch and didn’t go down well with Rafa at all. Even if he were ever to repeat the feat, it certainly will not be at RG.
    I agree with Shireling, this one might be tighter than previous years but the outcome is NID.

  6. I just got up to try to see what happened with Rafa’s match. On ESPN they are showing Serena! I thought it would be over. So from what I see Rafa won the first set. Now I have to find a way to watch it!

      • ed,

        It’s okay. I am on ESPN3 as I said in my post. But I have to go to the eye doctor in about an hour and a half, so I will watch it on the computer as best I can.

        Is Rafa playing well?

  7. I am watching it on ESPN3, but I have to go to the eye doctor this morning. Since they are not showing in on tv, I can’t record it.

    I should remember this is the way it is in the early rounds. If there is an American playing then we don’t get to see Rafa.

    Come on, Rafa! Keep it up!

  8. That was a nice hold by Rafa in a tight service game. From what I have seen since I started watching, Almagro seems to be playing pretty well.

    Come on, Rafa!

  9. ^^^ As several people have said, Almagro has improved recently and Rafa has had to fight hard largely because his service stats leave a lot to be desired. RITB thinks this might be a legacy from his back injury last year. If this is the cause it would explain his erratic results this year.

  10. Good job! Rafa gets the second break!

    Ricky predicted the scoreline to be 7-5, 6-2, 6-4 up thread. Close and quite accurate! Just off a game for the first set and spot on for the second!

    I hope that Rafa can close it out in the third set.

  11. I can’t believe I can’t see the match because they are showing women’s matches on BOTH Eurosport channels…and these two weird ladies Schiavone and Kuznetsova will never finish!!! I am so angry!

  12. ESPN briefly switched to Rafa’s match in time for me to see him get broken serving for the second set. This is the kind of thing that has been so concerning with Rafa. Fortunately, he’s up two breaks. But I don’t like seeing him get broken serving for the second set.

  13. Here’s hoping RITB’s prediction comes good and Almagro goes away quietly in the 3rd set…………. 🙂

  14. I liked Rafa’s attitude though after he was broken serving for the set, he did not get down on himself, did not panic as he has been wont to do recently. Just stayed calm and broke Nico to win the set.

    I also like that Rafa is chasing down balls, no physical issues……….

  15. Yes I noticed he’s chasing down balls more aggressively too.

    Fortunately, mugro can barely hold serve himself now broken four of 10 service games yielding 14 break points!

    Rafa’s going the have to be so much better against Djokovic.

    • Agree. He will have to serve better……much better. I hope my optics are right, he appears to be conserving energy out there. Yes, he’s chasing down balls but he appears a little subdued……….

      • ^^^ I’ve been thinking the same thing. Hope we’re right………or maybe he’s bluffing to give YKW a false sense of security 😉

  16. Almagro’s 2nd serve is far more potent than Rafa’s but then it has never been his strong point and today is downright dismal.

  17. Rafa’s serve stats were better except for second serve points won. That has to improve. Fortunately, Rafa doesn’t have to be at his best to win this match. Almagro has never been mentally strong enough to hand with Rafa for the most part.

    Rafa has a few more matches until he bumps up against Novak. Hopefully he can continue to play better.

  18. I did not see much of Rafa during this RG but from what I have seen so far Rafa is playing better than the whole clay season…his defense is amazing…movement improved much…it must be the RG clay that motivates Rafa and brings the best out of him…or the Parisians… 🙂

  19. On the one hand you could say it’s because it’s two Spanish players and since the FR don’t give a toss about anything Spanish (especially if they don’t think Almagro has any chance of beating Rafa) why would they see the match?
    On the other hand, you could say Rafa is a 9-time champion ,,… imagine what a crowd at Wimby would do?
    Different cultures, different attitudes to their legacy…

  20. btw nadline,

    Unfortunately I couldn’t see the match but I’m very glad Rafa is getting back his mojo and dispatched Almagro in straight sets 🙂

  21. Rafa was nice enough to win before I had to leave for the eye doctor! Thank you Rafa! 🙂
    I will have to catch the match later on the tennis channel replay. I was able to see some of it on ESPN3 and then they switched to Rafa’s match late in the third set.

    I saw enough to believe that Rafa is playing well, especially for only his second match. He’s got two more matches to get even better before you-know-who!

    It’s just nice to see Rafa feeling good and playing well on his favorite court. This is a good win against a quality opponent.

    Murray had a tougher time than expected. The American commentators are going to be pulling their hair out as American men are dropping out all over the place. I thought Isner would beat Chardy. So the only American man left is Sock battling Carreno Busta.

  22. Rafa’s backhand was brilliant throughout the match. The way he was striking the ball for full three sets was quite impressive. The forehand was decent but definitely he needs to move up a gear and he knows that. He did hit some nice and aggressive forehands but overall he is a little conservative with his forehand and that is understandable; he is building confidence on that wing.

    I think rafa is making really good progress. If he plays the next match even better and continues to build momentum, he will get stronger and stronger mentally and fear will once again take over the locker rooms.

    Keep going rafa! Avoiding inconsistencies in the next match is the biggest challenge and I have a positive feeling about his prospects of doing that. VAMOS

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