French Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Groth, Berdych vs. Pospisil

Rafael Nadal will begin his bid for a 10th French Open title when he takes the court against Sam Groth on Tuesday. Meanwhile, something will have to give when Tomas Berdych faces Vasek Pospisil–who is 2-0 versus the Czech but has never won an ATP match on clay.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Sam Groth

Nadal and Groth will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round one of the French Open on Tuesday. If Nadal is to capture a 10th career Roland Garros title, it will not be because of a favorable draw–unless some major upsets occur before the fifth-ranked Spaniard runs into his dangerous projected opponents. Unlike last year, however, Nadal is playing like it may not matter who stands in his way. The fourth seed is understandably far from being the favorite, but his clay-court swing includes a title in Monte-Carlo and he recently played Djokovic tough in a 7-5, 7-6(4) Rome quarterfinal setback.

While Nadal’s draw may be difficult, his opener should not be a problem. Groth is a huge-serving Australian who likes to keep rallies as short as possible. Needless to say, the world No. 100 would much prefer to contest this one on either grass or a lightning-fast hard court; heck, he would choose such conditions to face any opponent–not just Nadal. Groth has not played on clay since the 2015 French Open first round and he owns just a single ATP-level victory on this surface in his entire career. Nadal’s fortnight is almost certain to get off to a short and dominant day at the office.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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Vasek Pospisil vs. (7) Tomas Berdych

Berdych and Pospisil will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they battle for a place in round two of the French Open on Tuesday. Pospisil has won both of their previous encounters; 7-5, 2-6, 7-6(5) at the 2013 Rogers Cup and 6-2, 6-4 one summer later in Washington, D.C. Clay, however, has always spelled disaster for Pospisil. In fact, the 47th-ranked Canadian has never won a match in the main draw of a clay-court ATP tournament throughout his entire career. His current season on the red stuff includes opening losses to Jan-Lennard Struff (Munich), Radek Stepanek (Madrid), and Andreas Seppi (Rome).

Similarly, there is almost no good news in the Berdych camp–or what’s left of the Berdych camp. The eighth-ranked Czech split from coach Dani Vallverdu after getting double-bageled by David Goffin in the Rome third round. His 2016 campaign had already been mediocre at best, with only two appearances in a semifinal–both coming at 250-point events in the first two months of the year. That being said, tales of Berdych’s demise may be greatly exaggerated because of his 6-0, 6-0 loss to Goffin. He has still managed to win some matches on clay, which is more than Pospisil can say. Moreover, the seventh seed has advanced to the fourth round at Roland Garros five times and he was one set away from reaching the final in 2010.

Pick: Berdych in 4

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157 Comments on French Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Groth, Berdych vs. Pospisil

  1. Just because Pospy is so bad right now and always not so good on clay, I’ll take Berdych in straights. As for Nadal and Groth, I’m taking Rafa in straights losing 5-7 games. I’m expecting something like 2 3 and 2. Honestly when I first saw that matchup I thought ‘triple bagel for sure’ lol. Groth has been losing to guys in the 400s and 500s at hard court challengers in Asia and now he has to play the king of clay in the first round of RG. Hopefully he can swing freely and maybe make things somewhat interesting or close in a set. It’ll probably be a blowout though.

  2. I am picking Berdy because he has had some good results on the clay at RG. I do not expect bagel sets! Berdy should win in 3 sets.

    Rafa should have an easy time of it against Groth. On clay his serve is not going to be as big of a factor. He will come out with no pressure but Rafa should win this in 3 easy sets, losing 8-10 games.

    • And, it will be sunny tomorrow 🙂 Come on Rafa! Stamp your authority! Would’ve liked to have this one on Chatrier though.

      • I’d rather Rafa get his Lenglen visits over with so hopefully he will be on Chartrier if he comes up against Fabio or Thiem later.

        • Granollers is quietly dealing with Foggy – two sets up so far. With luck he’ll remove him from Rafa’s path.

      • Very optimistic rc.

        Rafa has only lost 4 or less in his first round at RG once in his career!

        On the other hand, he’s only surrendered a set in his first round once also so maybe I’m a pessimist!

        Nah!

  3. Groth is too optimistic about this match, and he does it in public to mess with Rafa’s head! I expect Rafa to come out nervous…and I am so irritated with acknowledgement that low ranked players just know Rafa is not that confident and they intentionally involve in these kind of mind games with him…

  4. Robbie gets it…

    RT @RobKoenigTennis: Crowd on Chatrier is so poor…it’s gotta be the worst supported Major by a long way. #RollandGarros

    #EmptySeats

  5. Toni gets it (sometimes)…

    Rafa’s always a bit nervous during the first rounds here. He always has been in the past. I don’t think anything will change this year.
    Read more at http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/news/articles/2016-05-23/toni_nadal_rafas_always_a_bit_nervous_at_rolandgarros.html#TJX3TpVU8z7z45gk.99
    Read more at http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/news/articles/2016-05-23/toni_nadal_rafas_always_a_bit_nervous_at_rolandgarros.html#B7tOkf1FyztVPjCV.99

  6. Rafa was already in the tunnel waiting to come on but ran back to his dressing room for some reason.

    Vamos Rafa!

  7. Rafa’s through 6-1 6-1 6-1. Well done, vamos Rafa, good start to the championship!
    Murray got out of pickle buy winning the deuce

  8. Rafa did not even break a sweat!
    I wonder how embarrassed Groth is after his rhetorics and verbal threats addressed at Rafa!

    Great match for Rafa! He lost I think only 5 points on his serve in the whole match! Amazing!
    Vamos Champ!

    • nats where did he make these threats? I haven’t seen any apart from Groth saying he wished he could sew some grass seeds on the court with all the rain they’ve had.

      • @ nadline 1:02 PM,

        I read the following at the RG site and thought it was rather pretentious thing to say…even the Serbian commentator said how Groth spoke about a possible upset here sow it was not only me to thing that way…

        [4] Rafael Nadal v Sam Groth

        Suzanne-Lenglen Court, second match

        Nadal, the only true King of Clay, is back in his realm and ready to launch his crack at a scarcely credible 10th Roland-Garros title. Groth, the 28-year-old Aussie whose claim to fame is delivering the fastest serve ever seen – a mere 263kph effort he boomed down in Korea – admits he’s probably the only bloke on the planet who believes he can win this. “Whether it’s a reality or not … maybe I’ll live in my own little dream world for a few days but I’m not going to walk out there and think I’m beaten before I get out there.” That’s the spirit, Sam. Game on!

          • Groth said that he was the only one thinking he could win this! He was actually talking about beating Rafa here where he managed to win only 3 games…it’s kind of pretentious thinking IMO…

            we may have a different sense of humor, hawks…but even you thought Groth could win a set…so, enjoy your laugh! 🙂

          • I thought Rafa would donate a set because of nerves.

            Sorry nats, any professional tennis player who starts a match NOT thinking they CAN win, shouldn’t be out there.

            Every pro player will say this.

            I will enjoy my laugh nats! Sorry!

            But enough is enough.

  9. I haven’t been following on what Groth has said about Rafa but it’s not very wise to brag against a 9 time champion…

    • All I could see in my minds’ eye was bagels and breadsticks. ? …and you may very well be right about who wins RG, hawkstra!

      Andy Murray gave me a heart attack! Benneteau and Stepanek – wonders never cease — stunning performances. Thank goodness Pouille got out of that one the winner, too.

  10. Rafa has now been promoted to 2nd favourite since the 2nd favourite showed he is a flash in the pan claycourter player. All this talk about favourites is such a waste of time.

  11. the flash in the pan claycourter manged to beat Djokovic in straight sets though… I wish Rafa would put an end to his Novak-shivers

    • I was not talking about beating Novak, I was referring to the fact that the two victories Murray had over Rafa and Novak coming into RG made him a bigger favourite to win RG in the eyes of the commies. Not that it counts for a row of beans who anyone’s favourite is, I just find the whole basis of judging favourites a little bit childish.

  12. Those comments are just for show, I agree with you that Murray can’t realistically be considered a favourite to win RG, not yet anyway.

    • yeah, I agree…this Murray can not beat either Nishi or Kyrgios IMO…he will need to perform a whole lot better to be able to reach the semis…

      • Murray will be in much better form by the time he gets to the semis. This is the way it is in the early rounds. The point is to get through. Murray and Stan both did just that. I think that surviving tough five set matches and coming from behind always helps a player.

          • It’s not uncommon for players to need to play themselves into their best form. The goal is to get through the early rounds and then peak in the second week.

            Ultimately, Rosol and Steps put a scare in their respective opponents, but still lost.

      • Yes, it’s way too early to predict if Murray can beat Nishi or Kyrgios. These are best of five set matches and physical fitness counts for a lot and so does mental strength.

        Murray beating Novak in Rome seems to be the reason that he is now in the conversation to win RG. I think the fact that Rafa has not beaten Novak for a while now is the reason why he is not being favored to win, especially since he will most likely meet him in the semis.

        The key could well be that Rafa has beaten Novak at RG until last year. Rafa at RG has always been a force of nature.

        • That and Murray won more lead up clay matches than any other player.

          However, the BIGGEST factor was when Rafa fell into Nole’s half. That’s when Rafa and Murray switched places.

          It wasn’t “commies” LOL, it was the betting public that made Murray the slight favourite over Rafa.

          It’s how betting works.

          Hilarious the number of straw man statements here today from so-called “knowledgeable” fans nny!

          • not true…the commies, or so called tennis experts(which you yourself continuously quote here) made Murray the second favorite…all the betting public does is obviously based on the recent history of wins/losses…they know nothing about tennis…

            strange how your comments can be disrespectful at times…do you really want to fight all the time? Or is it just that you here find it the proper place to release your inner tension…maybe going for a walk out on the fresh air would be a better cure? 🙂

          • And you are going to single me out as disrespectful?

            That’s also strange.

            I haven’t said anything personal about you nats. But yet you get personal with me? ok.

            Have you seen how many personal comments about me (not tennis) I’ve ignored from others?

          • Wow nats, when did I get personal with you?

            You’re better than that! (At least I always thought so.)

          • I just thought nobody here can be labeled not knowledgeable fan or different…we are here to discuss and we all can be wrong or right…why build tension about comments? Or be sarcastic about it? We come here to enjoy and to share our concerns or joy, not to fight…

            I thought we would all be happy about Rafa’s performance today and share our views about it…we run into Novak’s celebration videos instead and endless disagreements among Rafans over stupid things…I don’t know, it just does not seem right to me…or it’s just me being sensitive about things…then just forget about it…

          • “…we run into Novak’s celebration videos”

            And yet you ignore the personal statements to which led to them.

            Strange.

          • nats, it’s not you. The Djoker celebration videos says it all about the usual suspect and his supporters.

          • Hawkeye,

            Yes, you broke it down really well. It was the bettors who bumped Murray up to second favorite after he finally got the win over Novak. Rafa being in novak’s half of the draw was the biggest factor in not making him the top favorite.

            Now if Rafa had beaten Novak in Rome and been in Murray’s part of the draw, then he might well have been the favorite.

            I think it’s better for Rafa if he goes in kind of under the radar. Less pressure. Let Novak have the pressure of expectations,

          • Exactly nny.

            You get it and are able to discuss/debate tennis without the need to make it personal.

            One of the best posters here.

  13. I don’t think my grandchildren are going to see another 9 time RG champion…. and they’re not even born yet!

    • That’s what I said after Martina won her 9th Wimbly! (But that’s grass not clay I know I know.)

      #NeverSayNever

    • I am watching my recording of rafa’s match now. They switched over to Murray and Steps resuming their match from yesterday because rafa’s match was so non competitive.

      From the little that I did see of the first set, Groth was pretty bad.

      Then they went back to Murray and Steps in the fifth set. So I am not going to see much of rafa’s match. When it is so lopsided, then in the early rounds they tend to switch away to a more competitive match.

  14. Rafa’s own words today.
    ATP staff, May 24, 2016: ¤¤ Like Old Times For Nadal At Roland Garros.
    (Excerpts)
    “It’s obvious that was a good start for me. The most important thing that I had to do today I did well, which was return, and then I was playing with not many mistakes,” Nadal said.
    “It’s great to play here in France and in Roland Garros. I feel always the support of the crowd here,” Nadal said. “[This] is the most important place in my career, so to feel the support of the people here is something very special for me…Thank you very much to them for that.” ¤¤
    Read more at:
    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/nadal-thiem-isner-roland-garros-2016-tuesday

    • it’s beautiful point, indeed! Rafa smiling at it is priceless!

      the Serbian commentator said this tweener winner will sure win the contest for the ‘best point of the day’ and will be replayed many times…

  15. I’m ashamed to say I missed Rafa’s match completely. Had an appointment and it was all over by the time I was able to tune in.

    • Well I think if you blinked, you missed rafa’s match!

      I tried to watch it on my recording, but they showed the Murray/Steps match. I can’t really blame them. That was an entertaining fifth set!

      They managed to show the end of sets 2 and 3 of rafa’s match.

    • ed, Rafa played very well, returned great (considering Groth is regarded as big serving machine), played some amazing shots, served great and never broke a sweat! Really! This was the first time I saw Rafa finishing the match without having to sweat AT ALL!

      they may not replay it because it was one-sided match…but rest assured Rafa is on the run here! He never allowed Groth play any better than this, because Rafa kept hitting the lines and being agressive from return…of course, it will get tougher for Rafa, but it is so nice to see our boy cruising in such fine manner…

  16. I honestly don’t understand all the whoa about Rafa playing Fog. When Fog beat him he was not playing at half his best.

  17. A Rafog meeting would have been a non-event.

    Well I just hope that you not comparing this Rafa to that Rafa. Don’t you? Or do you.

    (Same for Thiem.)

  18. But for Rafans peace of mind it is preferable he is not lurking. You can never tell when he is going to catch fire.

    I think Granollers was determined to give his mate a helping hand 🙂

      • Thiem can’t take out Rafa in a best of five set match. He may make things interesting, but he can’t hang with Rafa.

        Have we forgotten how tough it is to take out Rafa at RG? He’s only lost twice in his entire career there!

    • Sometimes a tough draw can end up not being as tough because some opponents don’t get through. Fog is one who is now out of the way. We have to see who gets through to meet Rafa. So it pays not to worry too much until it happens!

        • Yes, but I fret when there is a reason to fret! I was not fretting about Fog and that’s the truth. I am always nervous for the early rounds. Even when Rafa was at his best.

          I feel better this year because Rafa is himself again. He will have some challenges along the way, but he seems to relish them.

          Should Rafa meet Novak in the semis, then I am going to be in full on fret mode!

  19. Jeff Sackmann ‏@tennisabstract
    It’s official — at 1:22, that’s Rafael Nadal’s fastest Roland Garros win. Previous speed record was 1:33, vs Lajovic in 2014.

  20. How did Rafa play today? The highlights slow we was awesome, but those are just 4-5 points that I have seen. The stats look amazing though

      • vr,

        Thanks for the highlights, because the tennis channel really didn’t show most of it.

        Rafa looked sharp, but was helped by Groth’s poor play. I am sure it did help any nerves that he might have felt before his first match.

        He’s going to be tested along the way. So it was nice for him to have it easy in this one.

      • bravo Hawkeye! This has to be the most confident start he has ever made here. Even better than the start he had in 2008 when he started with nerves against Bellucci and barely won set 1 7-5.

        Groth was an easy opponent but Rafa did exactly what he had to .Vamos! Keep building that steam…

      • I am with you @ vamosrafa & hawkeye! I just love when you two are optimistic! it means volume…

        Rafa will further build his game and his stamina during this RG…each round will be another confidence boost…

        and so pleased to learn that this was the fastest RG win Rafa ever had! Yet another record! 🙂

        Go for the 10th Rafa!
        Vamos!

        • nats, for me it always comes down to Rafa’s confidence and today he had it 100%.

          One might argue Groth was easy pickings but I’ve seen Rafa too nervous against “easy” opponents before and that was completely absent.

          Sure doubts and nerves can return but today along with Rafa’s play in Rome (I disagree with Ricky) and his lead up interviews are a great sign that he’s there with a real chance, as good as anyone else including Nole, IMO.

          Vamos!!!

          • you are so right…I particularly noticed that Rafa was not sweating, so the nerves were not an issue…I was also afraid he would come out nervous…as you said it happened before and against nobodies…

            I fully support your opinion on Rafa meeting Thiem…he needs a real opponent before colliding with Nole…

            Vamos!

  21. I don’t get the Fog fear factor iro of Rafa at all. When Fog beat him in Rio, Rafa has issues with the humidity on top of the fact that he had played well into the early hours of the morning in his previous match plus Carlos Bernardes winding him up in his match against Fog. Rafa had won the first 2 sets 61 62 and lost the 3rd set 7:5. At the USO, Rafa was leading by 2 sets to love before he imploded all by himself and allowed Fog to win the match. Everyone knows that Rafa was losing to just about everyone last year.

    • The rest is fine but the USO match was not only about Rafa imploding. Fog played absurdly well after being 2-0 down. The reason why he was able to do that was his back to back victories over Rafa coming into that match. Fog had belief. Rafa could not respond as he was a pack of nerves himself.

      Right now, Rafa will sweep him aside in 3 sets.

          • vr,

            Yes, I think you make a good point. Rafa does have a chance to wipe away the bad memories from last year.

            I had such a feeling of dread before RG last year, but this year I feel a lot better!

            That’s because Rafa is back to being himself!

      • I think USO had A LOT to do with Rafa suddenly hitting short midway through the 3rd set and for most of the rest of the match allowing Fog to dictate.

        • I never thought that Fog reinvented the wheel. It was the fact that Rafa was unable to make the kind of tactical adjustments that he has been known for throughout his career.

          He kept doing the same thing, hitting short balls that were easy pickings for Fog.

          Now we have seen that Rafa is capable of making key changes and adjustments mid match. He is thinking out there on the court.

  22. For years Rafa’s ability to regroup and change tactics when necessary was one of his greatest strengths, That skill has been missing for the best part of two years ever since he was plagued with a series of injuries (following the back injury which put paid to his AO chances in 2014) which were not related to his dodgy knees. I’ve long suspected it was the fear his body was breaking down rather than a mental block which precipitated the crisis in confidence.

    We’ve been pontificating on this matter for nigh on two years: we may never know the real truth. The main thing is we have reason to believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Whether it translates into another RG crown remains to be seen. Even if it’s not this year I’m certain there will be a No.10 crown one of these days.

    Onwards and upwards.

    • ed251137 (AT 11:26 PM),
      —I’ve long suspected it was the fear his body was breaking down rather than a mental block which precipitated the crisis in confidence.—
      ===
      .
      You don’t need to “suspect”. U.Toni has explained it and I have posted his explanation several times.
      U.Toni in his interview with COP, a radio network in Spain, in Dec.2015: “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”

      [augusta08 DECEMBER 23, 2015 AT 2:15 PM]
      https://tenngrand.com/social/player-pages/rafael-nadal/comment-page-115/#comment-69324

      • Gussie: you will have to be patient with me. It was only yesterday I finally got my computer correctly reinitialised after 3 weeks of endless problems so there are reams of comments I have not kept abreast of.

        Premature senility doesn’t help either 🙁
        It’s said you know you are getting old when you remember the name of who you sat next too on your first day at school but cant remember what you ate for lunch yesterday’. This goes with ‘I remember everything about my life –
        but can’t remember how many times I’ve told you about them’.

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