Expert picks are back for the French Open quarterfinals, which despite a fair number of top players exiting early has produced at least one blockbuster matchup: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev. A three-team panel makes its predictions.
Ricky: Like everyone else, I didn’t think Medvedev would make it to the quarterfinals. And if I was told he did, I wouldn’t think it would be in impressive enough fashion for him to be considered a legitimate threat to Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, or even Stefanos Tsitsipas. But fast forward a little more than a week and that is the case now. Previously winless all time at Roland Garros (0-4), Medvedev has dropped only one set through four rounds. That being said, Tsitsipas is a massive step up in competition from Alexander Bublik, Tommy Paul, Reilly Opelka, and Cristian Garin. Paul is a decent clay-courter, Garin is a very good clay-courter, Tsitsipas is one of the best clay-courters on tour. Medvedev is…an improved clay-courter. Tsitsipas trailed John Isner by a set in round three, and since then the Greek has reeled off six consecutive sets while looking every bit like a serious title contender. Medvedev is playing well enough to turn the latest chapter in one of tennis’ most fun rivalries into an interesting contest, but on this surface I’m just not prepared to pick him to beat one of the world’s best. Tsitsipas in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(6), 6-4.
Cheryl: Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Tsitsipas is a better clay-courter than Medvedev. He performed beautifully in the lead-up to Roland Garros, including capturing his first ever Masters 1000 title in Monte-Carlo. Sure he lost to Nadal in the Barcelona final, but that can hardly be a surprise, since…you know…it’s Nadal. What did Medvedev do to prep for the French Open? He won a match. ONE. And it was in Madrid, which is the least clay-like clay court in all of Europe. The rest of the time he spent losing and complaining about how much he hates the surface. The data says that Tsitsipas wins this quarterfinal. But here’s the thing. Tennis matches aren’t decided ahead of time on a stats sheet. Tsitsipas has difficulty with Medvedev. He’s 1-6 and his single win came at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2019, when Medvdev was exhausted from his superhuman second half of the season. Medvedev’s brand of chess-like tennis, his ability to be everywhere all at once, makes it difficult for Tsitsipas to find an opening. Furthermore, there is an undercurrent of hostility between them stemming partially from a disagreement that erupted in 2018 in Miami in which Tsitsipas allegedly called Medvedev a “bulls**t Russian.” And while many a great tennis rivalry has its roots in personal dislike, this one seems to have left Tsitsipas intimidated, Medvedev disdainful, and the scoreboard lopsided. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Two years ago in Monte-Carlo, Medvedev defeated Tsitsipas and Djokovic in back-to-back matches, so–despite his self belittlement–he is able to win important matches on clay. Following a run to the Barcelona final the next week, Medvedev went 1-7 on clay until he arrived at Roland Garros this year. To watch and realize that he is in the quarterfinals in Paris at the moment is almost beyond belief. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas appears to be on a mission. He has two clay-court titles in 2021 and most likely should have had a third in Barcelona against Nadal. All aspects of the Greek’s game are clicking, especially his play at net. In his second-round match against Pedro Martinez, Tsitsipas was 26-for-27 in points won at net. Despite the lopsided 6-1 H2H in this series that favors Medvedev, Tsitsipas has been experiencing a solid wave of momentum all year while Medvedev has only been able to rediscover his again since arriving in Paris. How very ironic it would be if Medvedev would actually live up to his No. 2 seed, and two more victories would do just that! However, Tsitsipas has been playing too well for the last five months not to win this match and advance. Tsitsipas in 4: 7-5, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(5).
who ya got?
Ricky, dear, the attached poll is apparently for the Rome final?
“Tennis matches aren’t decided ahead of time on a stats sheet.”
That’s true but stats sheets have a very strong predictive ability because a player’s performance usually won’t deviate enough from their historical performance to change the outcome.
And in that “usually” lies the fascination.
Cheryl,
As always I loved reading your take on this match. I can see why people are picking Tsitsipas, since he has looked so good during this clay season. But I think you were spot on in talking about matches not being de used upon a stats sheet.
Intangibles do win matches. If Med is in Tsitsipas’ head then that could determine the outcome. Before the tournament I did not exiect Med to last long. But he is in the quarterfinals. The lopsided H2H is also important. Thus could be the time that Tsitsipas breaks through for the big win. Or Med could take the intimidation factor and favorable match up to the semis.
I expect this one to live up to the hype.
DECIDED!
I understand why people picked Tsitsipas, too. He was my pre-tournament pick after Nadal as the next most likely champ. But at that time, I had no reason to think that Medvedev would come anywhere near the quarters. Now that he has? Well, I had to adjust my expectations.
I don’t necessarily disagree…I guess what I’m saying is that their historical collective performance when they’re on the court at the same time suggests that Tsitsipas has a very, VERY difficult time with Medvedev’s game. And I also think he’s just flat-out intimidated by Med.
I agree, Cheryl. Medvedev is in Tsitsi’s head. Please prove me wrong, Stefanos.
Loved your write up Cheryl! However, I’m hedging my bets as to the outcome but I think Tsitsi better come prepared for a heck of a scrap.
It is true, and I can imagine a little smirk on Medvedev’s face. One player loves this match-up, but the other would rather play anyone else. 😏
My bracket is depending on a Tsitsipas win. But I think this tussle will go at least 4 sets and Medvedev will win.
Medvedev can win. His last performance was right up there and he has the H2H edge as well. I don’t think there will be much between them.
Ricky, dear, the attached poll is apparently for the Rome final?
Anyway, I think it’ll be Tsitsi in 4. He’s looking really strong. Of course his draw was in the easy side.
Given that this is going to be a night match, it wont be too different conditions would be similar to slow hard court and Medvedev can trouble Tsitsipas, however Greek is still the favorite as he looks really solid and has just come off age. He is a delightful shot maker
Stefanos in 4 was my pick, but it could easily go to 5.
I don’t like the odds though, as bet365 have Tsitsi @ 1.44
Time and time again you see ‘favourites’ in the decimal 1.4 -1.5 range end up losing.
The match being played at night surely helps Med?
If they were playing in the heat and sun I think Tsitsi could get through his head to head problems. At night I worry he will capitulate.
Having said that, there is one psych factor not mentioned here which is Med’s longstanding lack of belief on this surface. If Tsitsi starts aggressive and takes the opening set Med might very well start spraying errors around. So if Tsitsi starts well and makes Med doubt himself I think he wins.
Very fun to read all of your opinions, and this really should be the best “popcorn” match at RG….so far….Tpas in a very entertaining 4.
Could be a great match. I agree!
Don’t want to see the Med smirk if Tsitsi starts capitulating..😡
Stef outplaying Med.
I said before that I thought if he started strong he would win and I am definitely sticking to that.
Tsitsi takes second set. I don’t see Med winning this.
I hope Tsitsi wins in 3, so he plays well with Zverev.
Well I certainly don’t want Zverev to reach the final!
Tsitsi is great, but I don’t know if that’s enough to beat Rafa or Nole.
Why,Amy? Worried for Rafa vs Zverev?
No Eugene. I just don’t like Zverev as a person.
That was an insanely awful underarm serve by Med on match point. Ridiculous really! He could have tried to hit an ace!
What that match showed is that winning clay court matches beforehand does matter. Tsitsi knew exactly what he was doing and Med was improvising and making strange mistakes.
Med also does have this clown streak in him!
Tsitsi was stunning. Loved it.
I love both of them fighting it out. Medvedev is learning as he goes, and he is funny, funny, haha, that is. Tsttsipas is a Greek adonis, I agree with the commie that said it first.
That was (maybe) the most stunning 3 sets of tennis I have seen. I was screaming at the TV for Medvedev to win the third set…for more tennis!
Great match ..loved it .tsitsi in the final for sure I think…had him from the start .it’s his time
How I just hope rafa reaches final too