French Open qualifying picks

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand, Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds, and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic make their picks for the 16 men who will qualify for the main draw of the French Open.

Ricky:

1. Hyeon Chung – Chung has been borderline dominant on the Challenger circuit and he will face similar competition in French Open qualifying. Having to go up against Jared Donaldson right away is a tough draw, and the winner of that showdown should go all the way. It will likely be Chung.

2. Alexandr Zverev – Similarly, the winner of a first-round matchup in pod No. 2 should have the green light to the main draw. Horacio Zeballos may be the favorite in terms of experience and because of the surface, but Zverev just recently took him to the woodshed at the Heilbronn Challenger.

3. Pierre-Hugues Herbert – Facundo Bagnis won a five-set marathon against Julien Benneteau in the main draw last year, paving the way for Ernests Gulbis’ run to the semifinals (Gulbis likely would have lost to Benneteau in round two). He is the favorite on paper and because of the surface, but I’m going with Hugues-Herbert at home in France.

4. Thiemo De Bakker – This section may the most interesting of the 16 in the qualifying draw, with the likes of Blaz Rola, Elias Ymer, and Peter Gojowyczk joining De Bakker. It also has Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, who is basically 100 years old. De Bakker’s talent has never been questioned, and he appears to have a clean bill of health at the moment to go along with it.

5. Dustin Brown – Brown ended Marinko Matosevic’s streak of futility at Grand Slams, and it happened right here at the French Open in 2014. The German is by no means at his best on clay, but neither is anyone else in this wide-open section. As always, it would be good for the game if Brown is in the main draw.

6. Luca Vanni – Vanni made a memorable run to the Sao Paulo final as a qualifier before losing in a third-set tiebreaker to Pablo Cuevas. He unsurprisingly disappeared thereafter but resurfaced at the Madrid Masters, qualifying for the main draw and making it to the second round. If the Italian can get past Adrian Ungur right off the bat, he should get the job done.

7. Guilherme Clezar – This section is pretty much there for the taking, but it should be Clezar who takes it based on the surface. If you recognize his name, it’s probably because he played Janko Tipsarevic in Tipsy’s first match back from injury. Clezar qualified for the Houston main draw then lost to the Serb 9-7 in a third-set tiebreaker.

8. Daniel Munoz-De La Nava – This could be the worst section of all. You can throw James Ward’s name out the window because this is not Davis Cup competition. Christian Garin’s recent results suggest the young Chilean is still several years away. As long as DMDLN gets past Garin in round one, he should cruise.

9. Alejandro Gonzalez – Gonzalez is on a collision course for the final qualifying round with Albert Montanes. Given the surface, I can’t see it coming down to anyone else. Montanes’ best days are obviously behind him, so Gonzo gets the nod.

10. Kimmer Coppejans – This section is not good–which means it’s a great one for Coppejans. In a recent span of three tournaments, the 21-year-old Belgian won a Challenger title and finished runner-up at another (both on clay). He is on the cusp of the top 100 at No. 109 in the world.

11. Rui Machado – On a hard court the main-draw bid would likely go to Alejandro Falla or Alexander Kudryavtsev, but Machado has a chance to get the job done on clay. The 31-year-old from Portugal recently beat Joao Sousa in Estroil before losing to Borna Coric in three sets.

12. Gerald Melzer – Jurgen’s brother recently advanced to the Munich semifinals as a qualifier. He will have a tough second-round test against either Victor Hanescu or Potito Starace, but Melzer should have an edge.

13. Facundo Arguello – Nothing screams “I’m good on clay” quite like the first name “Facundo.” The 22-year-old Argentine won the Tallahassee Challenger earlier this month, so he should be playing with some confidence. Of course, there is also a guy named “Guido” in this section; it will come down to those two players.

14. Matthias Bachinger – Bachinger is one of those guys who is just going to wallow between No. 75 and No. 150 in the world for his entire career. He will never do anything notable, but qualifying for main draws of slams is well within his talent level. This is a section with no real clay-court specialists.

15. Tobias Kamke – A year ago, Kamke vs. Evgeny Donskoy would have been a decent first-round match in the first round of a Grand Slam. It’s a qualifying clash this time around and the winner will have a good chance of making it into the 128-man field.

16. Marco Ceccinato – The Italian is up to No. 122 in the world at just 22 years old. Already this month he has a Futures title and a Challenger semifinal (the latter including a defeat of in-form Russian teenager Andrey Rublev). The rest of this section has players who are either washed up or not skilled on clay.

Joey:

1. Bjorn Fratangelo – This is an absolutely loaded section that features young guns Chung and Donaldson. Nikoloz Basilashvili is also a great ball-striker but has been struggling on clay. I think this one comes down to Fratangelo vs. Chung and they’ve already played twice this year, spitting the two matches. On red clay, I’ll take the American (he once won the French Open junior title).

2. Horacio Zeballos – Another strong section is headlined by the second-seeded Zverev, who just won the title in Heilbronn on Sunday. I think the young German is going to be a little fatigued and Zeballos’ clay-court skills will out. Watch for American Mitchell Krueger to make some noise, as well.

3. Denis Kudla – Kudla has had underwhelming year, but he has a decent draw in Paris. His biggest test will be Bagnis in the final round, but Kudla’s backhand should neutralize the Argentine’s biggest weapon, his lefty forehand. Hugues-Herbert could also ride home-court advantage to a few wins.

4. Elias Ymer – This is one of the most intriguing sections for me. Rola is usually solid on clay, but he’s been very inconsistent this year. Gojowczyk, returning from injury, has an incredibly tough draw in Carballes Baena. In the end, I think the young Swede Ymer finds a way through to the main draw.

5. Taro Daniel – On other surfaces, this would be a strong section. Brown, De Schepper, and Przysiezny are all big servers who tend to struggle on clay. I believe the winner of Daniel-Brown wins the section, and the Japanese youngster has enjoyed some recent success on clay at the Challenger level.

6. Adrian Ungur – Golubev stands out as the biggest name in this total toss-up section, but I’m not sure I trust him to play three good matches in a row. I’ll take Ungur, who absolutely loves to play on clay.

7. Guilherme Clezar — Gombos and Farrukh Dustov are both fun players to watch but are probably not good enough to qualify on clay. Clezar has a big forehand and is comfortable on the red stuff. It will also be interesting to see how Yoshihito Nishioka fares.

8. Daniel Munoz-De La Nava — Very few players in this section are good on clay, and I think the winner of Munuz-De La Nava vs. Garin will ultimately prevail. James McGee vs. James Ward is a fun Anglo-Irish matchup. McGee is a warrior who could make another heroic run, but it’s hard for me to pick against a Spaniard on clay.

9. Alejandro Gonzalez – In stark contrast to the previous section, most of these players are excellent on clay. Montanes is old but can still play great tennis at times. Andre Ghem and Frank Dancevic could each make a run, but Gonzo will grind for his life and qualify for the main draw.

10. Johan Tatlot – I’m definitely going off the board and take a long-shot here. Tatlot is a great athlete who has a bright future on tour. My first instinct was Coppejans, but the Belgian has folded in big moments in the past.

11. Alejandro Falla – This is a fairly legendary section, if only for Lamine Ouahab. If you haven’t seen him play, you need to. Falla will probably be too much, but the winner of that match will likely get the main-draw spot.

12. Gerald Melzer – The Spanish players in this toss-up section are comfortable on clay, but Melzer has the biggest weapons. I’ll take the Austrian to qualify and make his Grand Slam main-draw debut. Nicolas Jarry is a talented young player who could also contend.

13. Guido Pella – I think this comes down to an all-Argentine final-rounder between Pella and Arguello. I actually think Arguello has a higher ceiling, but he’s fairly hit or miss. Pella is pretty reliable and should get through on clay.

14. Yuki Bhambri – This is probably the weakest section of the entire draw. It’s hard to find any clear favorite. My heart says Golden Set Tim Puetz, but he’s coming back from injury and hasn’t played singles in months. I’ll take Bhambri simply given his recent form (reached final of Challenger in Uzbekistan).

15. Tobias Kamke – There is a lot of experience in this section. Marchenko, Devvarman, Donskoy, Kamke, Illya Marchenko, and Somdev Devvarman have each played in a lot of main draws throughout their careers. Kamke is a great ball-striker and–if he’s playing well–should qualify.

16. Filippo Volandri – I can’t quite believe I’m picking Volandri, but this is not a strong section whatsoever. Cecchinato could take it, but he’s not a convincing pick. Also, I’m sure Ricky will enjoy my picking of Volandri. Fun fact: Volandri strings his rackets at about 30 lbs; LOL.

Steen:

1. Hyeon Chung – The Korean teen has three Challenger titles and two Challenger finals in 2015, and he’s poised to finally break through at this level. Fatigue could be a factor along with surface since he was playing a Challenger in Korea on a hard court as preparation, but he’s still the best player in the first section.

2. Alexander Zverev – Another young gun, Zverev has had some success on the ATP and he’s riding a hot streak right now. Zeballos could be tricky in round one, but Zverev should be the favorite to qualify.

3. Facundo Bagnis – This is somewhat of a tricky section. Bagnis, though, is the best on clay here. Also look out for Kudla, who could surprise.

4. Thiemo De Bakker – The underperforming De Bakker just reached a Challenger final and he’s had a decent season. A lot of folks believe Ymer and the seeded Blaz Rola is an interesting choice, but De Bakker has the most upside.

5. Taro Daniel – I’ve been a firm believer in Daniel for a while now. He’s a lanky Japanese youngster with American ties and a quality all0court game; in fac, his best surface seems to be clay. He just won a Challenger title on the surface. Kenny De Schepper could also qualify here, but Daniel is my pick.

6. Luca Vanni – Vanni has been impressive this season (reached the final in Sao Paulo, beat Bernard Tomic in Madrid), so look for him to get through this section and reach his first slam main draw. H’s a junkballing late-bloomer

7. Yoshihito Nishioka – Look for Nishioka to join his countryman Daniel in the main draw, as Japan actually has a pair of players that aren’t bad on clay. The 19-year-old has been rising as of late and he’s in a winnable section

8. Daniel Munoz-De La Nava – DMDLN has a knack for qualifying for slams, though he’s accomplished little else in his journeyman career. This is a weak section, but Aslan Karatsev of Russia could challenge the Spaniard.

9. Alejandro Gonzalez – Both Gonzalez and Montanes have top-level tour experience in this section and are the favorites. Andre Ghem of Brazil is also here. Gonzalez has struggled as of late, but he may be returning to form and he’s the most talented player here on clay given Montanes has suffered a major decline with age.

10. Kimmer Coppejans – Coppejans, who recently won a title and reached a final on clay on the Challenger tour, has always seemed to be near a breakthrough but has yet to do so. With this section, he should be able to pull that off given it has three French wild cards, a pair of aging veterans, and a non-clay-courter.

11. Lamine Ouahab – This is a bit of a reckless pick. Ouahab is one of the most talented shot-makers in tennis and the variety of his game is remarkable, but his fitness is perhaps the worst in pro tennis and he’s never performed well outside of Morocco (he did beat Nadal in juniors, though). Given his fine play on clay in Casablanca and elsewhere, why not roll the dice? Also keep an eye on comeback kids Machado and Maxime Authom (I say “kids” in jest because they are veterans who were formerly notable.

12. Gerald Melzer – I’m going with Jurgen’s younger brother to qualify. He reached the semis in Munich, and this section has a pair of washed-up veterans (Hanescu and Starace). It’s time to go with some fresh blood.

13. Facundo Arguello – The feisty Argentine shouldn’t have much trouble in his first two matches. Pella, his countryman, or perhaps Arthur De Greef (a young, dirtballing Belgian) could pose a problem. But Arguello has been impressive this year and he’s solid on clay

14. Matthias Bachinger – This is a weak section that is hard to pick. Jason Kubler, a young Aussie who only plays tennis on clay and thus is trying to master the surface (he avoids other surfaces due to knee problems), could qualify and make a nice story. Aleksandr Nedovyesov has top-level experience, but Bachinger has both experience and prowess on clay.

15. Pere Riba – In a very weak section, most of the players here rarely play on clay and Kamke is struggling. Although he is the essence of a journeyman, Riba has experience on clay and thus I have him qualifying.

16. Marco Cecchinato – There are two other names who could feasibly qualify: Michael Berrer, who is in his last year on tour, and Andrej Martin. Volandri also may have an outside chance, but Cecchinato is in the best form.