French Open QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Berrettini

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will try to set up their highly-anticipated semifinal showdown when they take the court on Wednesday at Roland Garros. They are going up against Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini, respectively.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (10) Diego Schwartzman


Nadal and Schwartzman will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers and for the second time in a row at the French Open when they clash in the quarterfinals on Wednesday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 10-1 in the Spaniard’s favor, including 5-1 on clay. Nadal avenged a surprising 6-2, 7-5 loss last fall in Rome by cruising 6-3, 6-3, 7-6(0) in the semis at Roland Garros. Those two matches are indicative of how much tougher it is to beat Nadal in Paris compared to other clay-court tournaments. This spring has been no different. Although the King of Clay triumphed in Barcelona and Rome, he also lost in Monte-Carlo and Madrid–and was one point away from losing in Barcelona. So far this fortnight he has not dropped a set in victories over Alexei Popyrin, Richard Gasquet, Cameron Norrie and Jannik Sinner. Nine of the 12 sets have been 6-3 or worse for the opponent.

Schwartzman’s quarterfinal appearance is far more surprising, even though he made a run to the semis in 2020. The 10th-ranked Argentine lost his opening match in a hard-to-believe four of five clay-court warmup events. Nonetheless, he has managed to defeat Yen-Hsun Lu, Aljaz Bedene, Philipp Kohlschreber, and Jan-Lennard Struff–all of whom were unseeded. This is obviously where Schwartzman’s favorable draw ends, and his stay in Paris will likely end in swift fashion. Nothing about his current form or past history against Nadal suggests the underdog can be competitive.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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How many games will Schwartzman win?


(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Matteo Berrettini

Djokovic was one set away from bowing out of the tournament on Monday, but in reality that never came close to happening. The world No. 1 quickly erased a two-set deficit against Lorenzo Musetti, surging ahead 6-7(7), 6-7(2), 6-1, 6-0, 4-0 before the Italian retired. Djokovic had previously been in cruise control this fortnight, completely destroying Tennys Sandgren, Pablo Cuevas, and Ricardas Berankis.

The 34-year old Serb was somewhat all over the place earlier in the clay-court swing, as well, so the question is which Djokovic will show up on Wednesday. The answer, of course, should not be in much doubt. After all, he is an unbelievable 31-4 in his last 35 Grand Slam quarterfinal matches. That is bad news for Berrettini, whose luck (getting a fourth-round walkover from Roger Federer) appears to have run out. The ninth-ranked Italian’s only previous effort against Djokovic also doesn’t bode well; he lost 6-2, 6-1 at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals. Expect Djokovic to answer Monday’s wakeup call and dominate from start to finish.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Berrettini?

108 Comments on French Open QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Berrettini

  1. Most likely Nadal in 3 (losing 8-10 games) although I would not be surprised if he sacrifices a set to the Gods of tennis.

    Djokovic… hard to tell. He will play knowing that Nadal awaits in the SF and normally not really fancying his chances for the next round. Can he convince himself that he’s up to the task or at least believe in his luck? Does he really want to take another beating from Rafa and ruin his favourable H2H? Is the elbow fine? Is the shoulder hanging on? This distraction might just cost him dearly.

      • AFAIK he has some chronic elbow and shoulder issues. When things go bad, he often appears to start feeling those issues, or any other less important physical issues which he would normally ignore.

    • I honestly have to say that Novak will not avoid Rafa. He is a top level professional athlete and they live for challenges and playing the best. These guys don’t think about crapping out. So I just don’t buy that Novak will try to lose to avoid Rafa. I may not be his fan, but I have enough respect for him to know that.

      Novak is playing. Whatever physical issues he has, he obviously is managing them. Periodically we read comments like this about a top player trying to avoid his rival. I think Novak knows it’s tough to take on Rafa at RG. But I think he looks forward to the opportunity and goes out with the belief that he can win. That is the mindset of champions.

    • I honestly have to say that Novak will not avoid Rafa. He is a top level professional athlete and they live for challenges and playing the best. These guys don’t think about crapping out. So I just don’t buy that Novak will try to lose to avoid Rafa. I may not be his fan, but I have enough respect for him to know that.

      Novak is playing. Whatever physical issues he has, he obviously is managing them. Periodically we read comments like this about a top player trying to avoid his rival. I think Novak knows it’s tough to take on Rafa at RG. But I think he looks forward to the opportunity and goes out with the belief that he can win. That is the mindset of champions.

  2. I hope Rafa’s ludicrous Diego complex isn’t going to turn up today!😠
    I may physically assault the tv if it does.

  3. This is something that I find concerning at this stage of the tournament. Rafa not being abkr to consolidate the break. But at least now he has broken back!

    My nerves are kicking in already!

  4. Rafa got me so mad I just left the room and decided to do some work, lol. By the time I decided to check again I see he’d won first set!

    But that aside, he can’t afford to lose bp opps like that and get broken in the process. He needs to tidy up his game. Vamos!!

  5. Rafa’s level has really dropped. Making so many ues.
    It’s so bizarre given he won the first set easily.
    What is it about these strange drops in form this year.

  6. What did I say about y s Diego complex returning!
    This is really ludicrous.
    He has to get a grip on his mind.
    Come on Rafa!

  7. Arghhh!!….What’s wrong with Rafa huh??..He should play aggressively!…not the other way around!..

    Amy!…u go to RG & k8ck his 8$$ now!…That’s an order! ..

    • He is so nervy mira! It’s painful to watch.
      I agree he should be more aggressive but when he is he makes mistakes.
      The control on his fh has gone again. That’s always the index of how nervous he is.

        • Rafa has clearly had problems with nerves all.season.
          Moya said so!
          I hoped that he had overcome them in Rome but they have returned.
          All tournament he has seemed very nervous to me. One minute terrible, then brilliant. These dramatic sudden changes are clearly mental.

  8. Rafa’s serve is just terrible! Against Schwartzman he’s already in deep trouble; even if he wins this (well he may not, judging at how well Schwartzman plays), he’s going to have even bigger troubles against Djoko or Berretinni.

    I can see that Rafa is already in the decline, not only the serve, but his shots too, mis-hitting so often, giving away cheap points. It’s like he’s running out of ideas how to beat this Schwartzman, hence he’s tense when serving to stay in set two and so lost the set. And, what’s with going CC all the time, and stingy with his FH DTL?

    It’s not looking good for Rafa now, especially when Schwartzman is serving first in the third set.

  9. Schwartzman is good at changing directions and good with DTL shots from both wings. What Rafa should do is not to hit right back at Schwartzman but to hit to the open court and makes Schwartzman runs for the ball, that way there’ll be a better chance for Schwartzman to make mistakes.

    Rafa simply has too much respect for Schwartzman and so plays too conservatively; also, he’s standing too far back behind the baseline, why not move forward and be more aggressive and takes time away from Schwartzman?

  10. Rafa likes to do things the hard way all the time sigh

    I am not watching instead keeping abreast with the score. It’s really no fun watching Rafa play anymore

  11. Mona,

    I am doing the same. For the sake of my health I have to just follow the score, I am recording the match. Rafa is doing it the hard way. It’s not like he doesn’t know what to expect from Diego.

  12. U guys noticedA Rafa’s body language start to change a little bit?A spring in his step?Maybe turning point has arrived??

  13. Well let’s hope so, and he needs to win the fourth with maximin a breadstick. VAMOS, Rafa!! My heart really can’t take it!!!!!

  14. I’ll just have to assume Rafa was feeling generous today and donated his dear friend a set, box’s looking back I can’t c y he lost that set!

  15. Okay let’s have some perspective here. I turned it on in time to see Rafa win the third set. He was shaking his fist! There is no way he is losing this match.

    Let’s remember that Novak was down two sets to Mussetti. He has not looked invincible either. I usually get bad nerves starting with the quarterfinals. But Rafa is ahead. I am hoping that getting through this will help him work through his nerves.

  16. When Rafa serves well he can win the point. And, he hitting his I/O CC FH to the open court works against Schwartzman (see, don’t have to hit right back at your opponent all the time!).

    Why must Rafa play crappy to give his opponent an edge over him, and when his back is against the wall then he produces some brilliant tennis? Why makes things so difficult for himself?

    I know Schwartzman can play well and he’s indeed playing very well in this match, and he knows he has the game to give Rafa problems; but, Rafa after playing so often against him, should come with a proper game plan to counter Schwartzman’s game!

    Rafa simply has too much respect for his opponents, esp those tough ones.

  17. Uhmmm, we say that about the nerves every time, lol! New match new set of nerves! I think it happens with age, I also think bcos Rafa feels the pressure of trying to make history here! It’s bound to get under your skin, after all, he’s human, and added to that he knows his game is not 100%, especially the serve. So to some extent I understand but I don’t care, I want him to win it all, damn it!!! Lol!!

  18. And thank God too Rafa still standing!!…And the time also still not reach 3hrs…which is very good!!….Woooohoooo!!

  19. Rafa is now making Schwartzman runs for the ball, that’s the way! Rafa’s game > Schwartzman’s game, so Rafa has to stay calm each time he sees Schwartzman across the net!

    It seems like Rafa is playing with some mental block in his head; losing concentration here and there and so getting his serve broken so often and after breaking his opponents’ serves. Perhaps, it’s the weight of history plus his serve issue (because of his back problem).

  20. Oh my God!…How a simple confidence & belief can bring such a tremendous change in Rafa’s game??And Schwartzy was bombarded with his ferocious FH dtl how many times in a row??

  21. Mira, I honestly find it very odd that people haven’t been able to see what I have seen every match to do.with his nerves.
    That’s all it is.

  22. Schwartzman has lost his belief now. Schwartzman has proven that he’s one of the toughest opponent for Rafa at the FO; if I’m not wrong, he had pushed Djoko to five sets here at RG one year. He’s a tough opponent on clay for anyone!

    Congrats to Rafa, into another SF at the FO. Please play your best to win the next match and hopefully to win the final on Sunday! Vamos Rafa, I almost lost hope today seeing the way you played the second set!

  23. Amy!…I am with u all along about nerves & mental..I knew he’s gonna have some nerves to deal with tonite…Just like in Sinner’s match & many other matches b4 this as well…and he’s going to have this problem as long as he’s playing…

    But gud thing is,he also very amazing in finding back his mojo & confidence while he is down!…So,that’s still hope for us amy!..Fud hob Rafa!!..

  24. Also I always fear the quarters in slams mira!
    Recently he has got nervous in the quarters in slams.
    Please God he will be ok now…
    Good to talk with you darling.

    • Yeah amy!…Quarters,semis,final…it’s very mental for all of us too amy!

      If he go thru to the final(very likely! insyaallah),i’ll bet on my cow’s barn amy that he once again will be like this!…Esp when facing Tsitsi!..Nice talking to u too amy!😁😍

      • One match at a time mira .not sure he will get past novak in semi with this perf..

        N against tsitsi don’t even think it will be str8fwd..tsitsi is playing excellent..that will be a 4 or 5 setter

        • Insyaallah Rafa will get past Novak Sanju…I have 100% believe in him..

          Ohh…of coz it’s going to be 4 or 5 sets against Tsitsi Sanju!…Tsitsi was scary gud last nite!(that damn kid!)…I am not for 1 minute think that it’s going to be an easy ride sanju!..but that’s a topic that we have to discuss on saturday!hehe..For now!…Wooohoò!…Rafa win!!

          • I’m definitely more nervous about Novak than stephanos. The Greek was red as a lobster and could hardly breathe in third set. Look if Stephanos has the beat Rafa here it MUST be in 3!!! Otherwise, he has NO chance!!

            In the mean time Novak dropped third set in TB and now match is suspended, sigh! I’m not sure about Novak’s performance either!

    • amy,

      I had to go to the store, so it was a good time for a break. I needed to just come down from all the anxiety.

      It’s not going to get any easier.
      😱

  25. Rafa playing Diego in qf has always been a slugfest..nothing new ..

    Rewind back to fo 18 , uso 19 ..all qf matches ..fo18 he dropped a set , uso19 it was str8 sets but I think the first 2 sets were crazy up n down n at times rafa lost 4 games in a row too ..

    So well I don’t know if this level will cut against novak..I don’t understand why nerves now when going for 21 but not when tying for 20. .he shld have been more nervous then no .

    Let’s see if n when novak is going to play to tie the record .how will he handle .I don’t think it will be str8fwd…look at serena too now ..when she was to tie 18, she botched up thrice n now to reach 24..underperformed all the time

  26. I can testify that nerves do not get better with age. Otoh, Rafa has always had to deal with his nerves in big matches, at least since I started watching him at Wimbly 08. He’s always come out on top, too.

    Happy-for-the-win today and scared-for-the-next-two-matches. Rafa can win or he can lose but he’ll deal with it. And I’ll deal with it! I don’t know if it’s so much the sadness if he loses or loss of the elation when he wins. He says it’s good for a week or two of happiness, but some of his victories….well, they’ve given me a lifetime of blissful feeling. I’d love to see him win more and more but really, for me, he’s done enough. He’s a wonderful player, and what’s more, an amazing man.

  27. I think we should give Rafa a break. He is not a teenager anymore or even as a teenager or when he was in his 20s he used to lose sets in Roland Garros. He is able to find solutions and he always struggles against players like Diego. He struggled more in 2018 against Diego and I think Diego is a much better player than what he was in 2018.

    Good part is it did not became a physical battle and he was able to finish it in 2 hours 45 minutes with very good feelings in the end. But Rafa’s draw is brutal, but I think he has the game to beat 3 tough opponents back to back provided he did not get into a really long battle in matches before final. He has Novak to deal with, it wont be easy but Novak is not on fire. I still think Rafa made a statement in the end.

    • I’m just hoping Rafa gets through the Djoker, assuming ND does indeed get through Berretini. After that, bring it on!

  28. I think that Zverev would be the easier finalist for Rafa. He’s such a choker in GSs and he has less technical options than Tsistsipas. Granted, he has a double handed backhand, but other than that I see him as a lesser player than Stefanos, especially on clay.

  29. Sorry for the fans getting booted out of the night match because of the curfew. They had to take the players off the court to get the fans to leave!

  30. I felt bad for the fans having to leave. They were rightfully very unhappy about it!

    This looks like it’s going to a tiebreak. Can Berrettini push it to five sets? It took him until the third set to start playing good tennis.

    • Eugene,

      Thank you for saying it! I was appalled by his behavior. He kicked in the pliant of the court that protects the fans in the stands. Hus behavior was atrocious.

  31. Berrettini’s game is a bit one dimensional. I like that Mussetti’s game; he looks a promising youngster, but needs to improve his stamina!

    Mussetti’s game looks like it’s a combination of Fed’s and Murray’s – varieties plus the BH slices, and then the cat and mouse game. His is the game that could give Djoko plenty of problems.

    Berrettini’s is too dependent on his serve, and once Djoko reads it, Berrettini won’t have much to trouble Djoko.

    Well, hopefully Rafa can and will beat Djoko here and even the H2H, and gets his hands on the trophy again. And, hopefully Rafa could do it without giving us heart attacks.

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