French Open QF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Dimitrov

In the week leading up to the French Open, there were reports in the Italian media that Jannik Sinner would not even play because of a hip injury.

It’s safe to say that said reports were woefully inaccurate.

Sinner is not only playing but also into the quarterfinals at Roland Garros for the second time in his career. The world No. 2 has continued his dominant 2024 campaign with victories over Chris Eubanks, Richard Gasquet, Pavel Kotov, and Corentin Moutet. Aside from a first-set aberration against Moutet (which Sinner lost 6-2), no set has been more competitive than 6-4.

Although the competition level gets tougher in the form of Grigor Dimitrov on Tuesday, this is a matchup that Sinner has handled without any trouble dating back to the spring of 2023. Since losing their first encounter at the Rome Masters in the fall of 2020, the Italian has reeled off three wins in a row–6-3, 6-4 at last year’s Miami Masters, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in the Beijing quarters, and 6-3, 6-1 a few months ago in the Miami title match.

Thanks to yet another impressive run at a significant tournament, Dimitrov has given himself another shot at the current best player in the world. The 33-year-old Bulgarian booked his spot in the last eight by beating Aleksandar Kovacevic, Fabian Marozsan, Zizou Bergs, and Hubert Hurkacz. Only Bergs managed to take just a single set. Dimitrov is now 28-8 this season–better than almost anyone else, but still nowhere close to his next opponent’s 32-2 mark.

Asking the world No. 10 to beat–or even be competitive with–Sinner may be too much. As Moutet found out the hard way in the last three sets on Sunday night, variety does not give Sinner any real problems. He can send back his own shots with just as much variety and significantly more power.

Moreover, Dimitrov was clearly emotional after finally reaching the French Open quarterfinals for the first time in his career (he has advanced to the semifinals at every other slam). There is nothing wrong with his emotion, of course, but the bottom line is that this is already an awesome result for the veteran. For Sinner, on the other hand, it’s title or bust.

It’s a title quest that will almost certainly continue.

Pick: Sinner in 3