French Open QF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Tsitsipas

For the second time in the last two years, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be squaring off in the French Open quarterfinals when they meet again on Tuesday.

Just like every other occasion on which they have faced each other, their 2023 Roland Garros encounter did not end well for Tsitsipas. Alcaraz rolled to a 6-2, 6-1, 7-6(5) victory, seizing a 5-0 lead in the head-to-head series. He has defeated Tsitsipas three times on clay and also won their only other Grand Slam matchup–6-3, 4-6, 7-6(2), 0-6, 7-6(5) at the 2021 U.S. Open.

Can Tsitsipas finally get over the hump? It’s not out of the question, as the Greek has rebounded from a slow start to the season to pick up the pace on his beloved clay. Tsitsipas advanced to finals in Monte-Carlo (champion) and Barcelona (runner-up), and now he is back in the French Open quarters thanks to wins over Marton Fucsovics, Daniel Altmaier, Zhizhen Zhang, and Matteo Arnaldi. The world No. 9 trailed Arnaldi by a set and was down four set points in the second, but he stormed back to win in four.

Alcaraz was looking vulnerable heading into Paris due to a right-arm injury, but that is clearly a thing of the past at this point. The Spaniard has been at his best–or at least close to it–through four rounds, taking care of J.J. Wolf, Jesper de Jong, Sebastian Korda, and Felix Auger-Aliassime while surrendering only one set to De Jong.

Now Alcaraz faces an opponent whom he absolutely owns.

“I think I have the key against him,” the world No. 3 said of Tsitsipas during his on-court interview after beating Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 6-3, 6-1.

“The matches that we’ve played, I won all of them,” Alcaraz responded when asked about that comment during his press conference. “So that’s what I wanted to mean when I said that I have the key against him–because I think it’s five or six. It doesn’t mean I have to play at my 50 percent. I know that Stefanos is playing great, but I know tactically what I have to do in the match–which I’m not going to say, obviously. But I know what I have to do.”

It’s not exactly a secret of course. Alcaraz will pepper the Tsitsipas backhand with relentless pressure and then go hard to the forehand side when that part of the court is open. That recipe has worked to perfection for 21-year-old every single time in the past and it will likely work yet again.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3