French Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Korda, Thiem vs. Gaston

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are on a collision course for the French Open semifinals. They first have surprising fourth-round matchups on their hands against Sebastian Korda and Hugo Gaston, respectively, on Saturday.

(Q) Sebastian Korda vs. (2) Rafael Nadal


The good news for Nadal is that he has been so good for so long that he is now playing against opponents who idolize him. By his own admission, the bad news is that means he is old. Whatever the case, the 19-time Grand Slam champion will be going up against one such opponent–Korda–in the French Open fourth round on Saturday afternoon. The 20-year-old American had never won an ATP-level match prior to this fortnight, but he qualified for the main draw and followed up that success with defeats of Andreas Seppi, John Isner, and Pedro Martinez.

Nadal did not come close to dropping a set during victories over Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, and Stefano Travaglia. The second-ranked Spaniard has been in fine form even though conditions for him in Paris are not ideal in September and October as they are in May and June. That does mean Korda has a chance, but the world No. 213 is the kind of player who can withstand the patterns that make Nadal so ruthless on clay. Korda stands at 6’5”, hits a big ball, and wields a rock-solid two-handed backhand. It’s hard to see Korda winning a set, but it may not be a complete beatdown.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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How many games will Korda win?


(WC) Hugo Gaston vs. (3) Dominic Thiem

Thiem and Gaston will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers, which is no surprise given that Gaston had also never won a match on the main tour prior to this event. A wild card has proven to be life-changing for the 20-year-old Frenchman, who has made the most of his opportunity in the form of victories over Maxime Janvier, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Stan Wawrinka. Although Wawrinka had been showcasing good form through two rounds, Gaston managed to pull off a 2-6, 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-0 stunner on Friday.

It only gets much, much tougher for the world No. 239 on Sunday. Thiem has been the second-best player at the French Open over the past three year years, including two runner-up performances (both to Nadal). Fresh off his first Grand Slam title at the U.S. Open, the third-ranked Austrian has gotten right back in gear to beat Marin Cilic, Jack Sock, and Casper Ruud all in easy straight sets. Consistency and defense has sometimes been enough to break Thiem down at times, but based on how well he is playing right now the only way to beat him–or even compete with him–is meet fire with fire. Gaston certainly does not have the offensive tools with which to do that.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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WWW: Thiem vs. Gaston?

80 Comments on French Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Korda, Thiem vs. Gaston

    • Not so much! Rafa’s bakery still doing a fine business. I just woke up so haven’t seen the match yet, but looks like we’re with the “windy”. Maybe Korda not great in the windy.

  1. Korda, Gaston and Sinner “should” all be competitive.

    At this level there’s fine line between being competitive and getting rolled easily which makes it difficult to predict upsets with confidence.

    I haven’t watched a lot so far but these 4th round matches are getting me interested.

  2. Korda, Gazton and Sinner “should” all be competitive.

    At this level there’s fine line between being competitive and getting rolled easily which makes it difficult to predict upsets with confidence.

    I haven’t watched a lot so far but these 4th round matches are getting me interested.

    • I particularly like Sinner’s chances. If he beat Goffin in straight and Tsitsipas in Rome then he has to be a very good chance of beating Zverev on clay.

  3. The way the commies are talking just during the first game in Rafa’s match the match, seems like were might be in for an upset, sigh!!!

  4. Yeah, he’s gone down a gear in this set and is not very aggressive. At least his opponent has him on his heels, Rafa needs a match like this

  5. Jannik Sinner is showing that it is possible to hit through the court. Rafa’s doing fine, guys. Zverev, not so much. (Sorry Tennis Channel has switched to the Sinner-Zverev match and my other tennis channel is showing some random women’s match. Sigh. Sinner is now up 6-3, 6-3.

    • But, there are many deuces and BPs so it’s not like Sinner has it easy against Zverev. Zverev is not even playing that well to begin with.

      • It’s very surprising how little strategy Zverev has used. Why keep bashing the ball from the back of the court! Play slice and slower balls and make him play at net..I would be amazed if Rafa plays like this..

  6. Rafa beating who he is supposed to as relentlessly as at the spring rg😀 sinner if he gets thru may be a great test on what rafas level is like

  7. As windy as it is out there, that was actually quite well done by Rafa. He did exactly what he needed to do.

    Sascha generally plays badly in the wind, so I am not surprised to see him struggling, but Sinner is also taking it to him. Nicely done by the Italian.

      • Well, any time you have a kid like Sinner who is playing as well as he is, it’s wise to…be on guard. But generally, I would say no. I think Nadal’s brand of physicality on clay is going to be too much for him. He for certain would need to be physically fit enough to go the distance, and I’m not sure he is.

  8. Amy..been worried about sinner from the very start..I hope the zverev match goes 5..it’s rainy n cloudy on Tuesday which means roof may close .

    What do you reckon ? Rafa didn’t play well ? Will he be ready for sinner ?

    • Sanju I am hoping they go 5! Zverev is fighting back so is entirely possible.
      It was very windy today so rafa was hitting short quite a lot..
      Let’s see what happens between sinner and zverev..if they play a long match that will.help rafa..

    • Why are you worried of Sinner? It’s not like Sinner is beating Zverev handily, and Zverev isn’t playing well to start with.

      Rafa will beat Sinner, and it will be a good preparation for Rafa to face Thiem in the SF. I expect Thiem to beat the French guy and then Schwartzman to reach the SF, unless Schwartzman plays like there’s no tomorrow to beat Thiem.

      • Amen to that! But y all those landmines in Rafa’s draw?!!! A bunch of nobodies in Novak’s!!!!!! Just really mind boggling!!!

      • It’s a shame that Stan lost; a Stan in full force vs Thiem would be a mouthwatering match, and might go the distance. Gaston simply doesn’t have the fire power or the guile to deal with Thiem’s power game.

  9. The windy conditions show you can never be sure..ie the commentators saying Novak is invincible!!😠
    We all know he doesn’t play well in the wind..

  10. What is the roof policy at RG ? Is it as stupid as at wimby where they let players decide n have a say like Novak insisted for wimby 2018 semis

  11. I really don’t care about the conditions to be honest bcos if Rafa is playing well he will adjust accordingly. I’m more concerned about his state of play rather than the conditions he plays in……and if he is playing WELL Sinner/Zverev really does not have any chance!! Period!!!

    Vamos Rafa!!

  12. Is Zverev overrated? He frequently plays dodgy matches..
    His lack of strategy today in giving Sinner the same ball over and over again and not mixing things up was quite bizarre..

    • The love affair between Korda and Rafa is threatening to get out of control..
      Rafa has given him signed shirts now and Korda says Rafa and his cat are both “super nice..”
      💜💜💜

  13. C what I mean? Theim just needs to play with calm! He just keeps beating himself! Well let’s c what he does in final set, I’m still not giving up on him! In the end it might be just the match he needs.

  14. Gaston turns out to be full of guile, like a Murray. I mean he’s able to beat Stan, and pushes Thiem to five sets, and both of them are power players!

    The guy is very smart, using the drop shots so often and passing Thiem at the net with his DTL shots, so impressive. He actually exposed and exploited the flaw in Thiem’s game. Thiem played from far behind the baseline, and so drop shots against him really worked for Gaston. Thiem was rushed and so he overhit often when getting to those drop shots.

    Schwartzman will be a tough opponent for Thiem now, as Schwartzman is physically fresh, could run after every shot and is so quick.

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