French Open R4 previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Khachanov, Carreno Busta vs. Altmaier

Novak Djokovic will face his first seeded opponent of the French Open fortnight in Karen Khachanov on Monday. Pablo Carreno Busta and Daniel Altmaier are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (15) Karen Khachanov

Djokovic and Khachanov will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they clash in round four of the French Open on Monday. Khachanov has upset Djokovic in Paris before–but that most certainly did not come at Roland Garros (the Russian triumphed 7-5, 6-4 in the final of the 2018 Paris Masters). Djokovic, though, leads the head-to-head series 3-1; he has won two in a row at Khachanov’s expense with scores of 6-3, 6-3 (2019 Davis Cup Finals) and 6-2, 6-2 (Doha 2020).

That Doha match was the last time Khachanov played prior to the coronavirus shutdown, and he has been unable to get back in gear. The world No. 16 lost in the third round of the Cincinnati Masters and the U.S. Open before compiling a 1-2 record in his first two clay-court tournaments. Khachanov’s third-round win over Cristian Garin on Saturday was impressive, but it does nothing to suggest he can trouble Djokovic. The top-ranked Serb has not even dropped more than three games in any set through three rounds. He might not on Monday, either.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing 8-10 games

(17) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (Q) Daniel Altmaier

Djokovic could run into an all-too-familiar foe in the quarterfinals. In fact, is is quite likely that turns out to be the case. Carreno Busta is a also huge favorite in his fourth-round match, which will come against Altmaier–a qualifier ranked No. 186 in the world. After playing his way into the main draw, Altmaier knocked out Feliciano Lopez, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Matteo Berrettini to improbably reach the second week. The 22-year-old German had never won a single match at the ATP level prior to this event.

Carreno Busta will present a much different challenge. That’s not to say that the Spaniard is decidedly better than Struff or Berrettini, but he will be tougher for young, underdog opponent. The 18th-ranked Spaniard is one of the most consistent baseliners on tour, and his firepower off both wings also should not be underestimated. Carreno Busta is also playing some of the best tennis of his career right now, having reached the U.S. Open semifinals prior to this Roland Garros performance that includes a four-set win over Roberto Bautista Agut. Altmaier will be hard-pressed to make this one competitive.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 3