French Open draw analysis: Djokovic, Murray looking good

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have already faced each other in three finals this season: at the Australian Open and in each of the two most recent clay-court Masters 1000 events in Madrid and Rome. Although Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal will have other ideas, the French Open draw has certainly given Djokovic and Murray every opportunity to write another chapter of their rivalry in the title match on June 5. The rest of Djokovic’s quarter is alarmingly weak and Murray should have an easy time of things until possibly running into Kei Nishikori in the last eight. As for Nadal, his section is positively loaded.

Djokovic’s quarter

Djokovic could not have asked for a better draw prior to the semifinals. The other seeds in his section are Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Roberto Bautista Agut, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, Pablo Cuevas, and Federico Delbonis. Berdych and Ferrer are slumping, Bautista Agut is 0-21 in his last 21 matches against top 10 opponents other than Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Tomic is hopeless on clay. Lopez, Cuevas, and Delbonis are in decent enough form, but none is a threat to Djokovic.

As the world No. 1 cruises into the quarterfinals, things could get particularly interesting in the Berdych-Ferrer part of this section. Cuevas and Lopez will be eager to crash the party and book a spot alongside Djokovic in the last eight. Juan Monaco, Hyeon Chung, and Vasek Pospisil will have similar aspirations.

Best first-round matchup – Borna Coric vs. Taylor Fritz

It will be an all-teenager showdown when Coric and Fritz square off for the first time in their careers. Coric, 19, is already an established force on tour with 47 ATP-level match victories and a ranking of No. 44 in the world. Fritz, 18, has enjoyed a sudden and meteoric rise dating back to last fall. The American’s 2016 campaign includes a runner-up performance in Memphis and a quarterfinal run in Acapulco as a qualifier. Fritz, however, has played only one main-draw match at a Grand Slam (lost to Jack Sock in five sets at this season’s Australian Open) and clay also favors Coric.

Best potential second-round matchup – (11) David Ferrer vs. Juan Monaco
Best potential third-round matchup – (25) Pablo Cuevas vs. (7) Tomas Berdych

Possible surprises – Djokovic is going to the semifinals—there is no doubt about it. But the other half of this section is wide open with the two highest seeds, Berdych and Ferrer, in woeful form. Berdych may not even be there by the time Cuevas reaches the third round and the case may be the same with Ferrer in the fourth round. The Uruguayan could be in line for a quarterfinal run, as could Monaco if he upsets Ferrer in the last 64.

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Nadal’s quarter

Nadal seemingly got a major assist from Roger Federer when the 34-year-old Swiss withdrew because of a back injury. Although that development did bump Nadal to the No. 4 seed, the Spaniard’s good fortune came to an end in a hurry one day later. His eighth of the bracket also includes familiar foe Fabio Fognini and recent Nice champion Dominic Thiem. If the seeds hold to form, Nadal will have to beat both of those guys just to reach the quarterfinals.

On the bright side for the nine-time Roland Garros champion, he drew Tsonga as his 5-8 seed instead of Kei Nishikori (Berdych, of course, also would have been favorable). Tsonga is just 15-8 this season and an abbreviated 4-2 on clay, as another knee issue prevented the Frenchman from getting more matches under his belt these past two months. David Goffin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Joao Sousa are among those who could take advantage.

Best first-round matchup — (24) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Nicolas Almagro

The two veterans will be facing each other for the ninth time in their careers but for the first time in more than three years. Almagro holds a 5-3 edge in the head-to-head series, including 4-1 on clay. Interestingly, their first-ever meeting also came in round one of the French Open; Almagro got the job done 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-3 back in 2005. At the moment, though, it is Kohlschreiber who is still going especially strong at 32 years old. He is 20-10 this season with a recent semifinal showing in Barcelona and a title in Munich. Almagro is slowly working his way back up the rankings in the aftermath of a 2014 foot injury.

Best potential second-round matchup – (18) Kevin Anderson vs. Alexander Zverev
Best potential third-round matchup – (4) Rafael Nadal vs. (32) Fabio Fognini

Possible surprises — Goffin going deep in tournaments is not exactly a surprise at this point given that he recently advanced to consecutive semifinals in Indian Wells and Miami before reaching the quarters in Rome. But he has never been to the last eight of a Grand Slam. That could change at Roland Garros, where the 12^th-seeded should be able to sleepwalk through his first two matches and his nearest 5-8 seed is a vulnerable Tsonga.

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Wawrinka’s quarter

Wawrinka just went up against Lukas Rosol in the Geneva semifinals, winning in three sets on his way to the title. They will square off again in the French Open first round, marking the start of Wawrinka’s title defense. That is by no means the easiest of openers for the fourth-ranked Swiss, but the draw should open up once Rosol is out of the way. If Wawrinka advances, he will run into either Martin Klizan or Taro Daniel before possibly getting Jeremy Chardy in the last 32.

The rest of the fourth-round spots are more up for grabs in this quarter. Milos Raonic may encounter some difficulty in the form of a red-hot Lucas Pouille in round three. Sock could give Geneva runner-up Marin Cilic some problems, but the American would first have to get past Robin Haase and then potentially Dustin Brown. Gilles Simon and Viktor Troicki are by no means locks to get through a section that also features Grigor Dimitrov and Guido Pella.

Best first-round matchup — (22) Viktor Troicki vs. Grigor Dimitrov

These guys have already battled each other through two thrillers in 2016. Dimitrov survived 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-2 in Brisbane before Troicki lifted the Sydney trophy thanks to a 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(7) final victory. The Bulgarian missed out on French Open seeding by one ranking spot and by 40 ranking points, so that loss to Troicki in the Sydney title match really made the difference between being seeded or unseeded at Roland Garros. But this unfamiliar status has not exactly hurt Dimitrov, because his draw is as favorable as he could have hoped. Troicki is averse to clay and he is just 2-4 on the red stuff this spring. Dimitrov is also slumping, so just about anything could happen in this one.

Best potential second-round matchup – (23) Jack Sock vs. (Q) Dustin Brown
Best potential third-round matchup – (8) Milos Raonic vs. (29) Lucas Pouille

Possible surprises — Appearances in the second week of majors used to be commonplace for Dimitrov. Another such run may come when fans least expect it. The unseeded Bulgarian was a disaster last season and he has not been much better during the first half of 2016. But his draw sets up nicely, with Troicki and Simon as his nearest seeds. On the other side of this quarter, watch out for Sock. Raonic and Cilic are playing well enough right now, but both are beatable on clay.

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Murray’s quarter

Murray and Nishikori are on a collision course for what would be the most intriguing of the four quarterfinal matchups. The second-ranked Scot is coming off consecutive final appearances in Madrid and Rome (lost to Djokovic and then beat Djokovic). He has reached the semifinals in three of his last four trips to Roland Garros. Nishikori has advanced to at least the semis of his last four events, including in Madrid and Rome. The world No. 6 is a mere 8-5 lifetime at the French Open, but he made a run to the quarters for the first time last season.

Murray should not have any difficulty on the way to his potential showdown against Nishikori. The second seed opens with qualifier Radek Stepanek, will face either a qualifier or a wild card in the last 64, and his nearest seed is a rusty Ivo Karlovic. Murray’s possible seeded fourth-round opponents are John Isner and Benoit Paire, who are both painfully short on confidence. The story is a much different one for Nishikori, who could face Andrey Kuznetsov in the second round, Fernando Verdasco immediately thereafter, and then either Richard Gasquet or Nick Kyrgios in the last 16.

Best first-round matchup — (33) Steve Johnson vs. Fernando Verdasco

Johnson was initially unseeded and scheduled to go up against Lopez. But then Alexandr Dolgopolov withdrew and the American assumed the Ukrainian’s place in the draw…against another lefty Spaniard (fortunately another left Spaniard not named Rafael Nadal). Although Johnson went from being unseeded and playing a seed to being seeded and playing an unseeded floater, it is not exactly a major upgrade. Verdasco likes clay more than Lopez does and he is 2-0 lifetime against Johnson, with both previous meetings having come on the red stuff in Houston. The 32-year-old prevailed in straight sets in 2013 and in three sets one season later. Johnson is much-improved now, so he may be able to turn the tide.

Best potential second-round matchup – (5) Kei Nishikori vs. Andrey Kuznetsov
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) Richard Gasquet vs. (17) Nick Kyrgios

Possible surprises — Either Isner or Paire is heading for the fourth round. Strictly by numbers, that is nothing out of the ordinary (Isner is the No. 15 seed; Paire 19^th). But neither one could have been expected to go that far until the draw ceremony was held. Isner missed most of the clay-court swing with a knee injury and lost his Geneva opener to Rosol in a third-set tiebreaker. Paire turned in decent results in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona but has otherwise been downright bad and—not surprisingly—disinterested this spring. One of them will get on track by taking advantage of an amazing draw.

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