The five most surprising ATP final matchups of 2018

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer may dominate the slams and Masters 1000s for the most part, but the rule at the 250-point level–to which top players in the world rarely stoop–is to expect the unexpected. That was certainly the case this past season.

Let’s take a look back at the five most surprising ATP finals of 2018.

Honorable mention. Stockholm: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Ernests Gulbis

At this point in the year, Tsitsipas was already well-established force on tour. Heck, he had already reached a Masters 1000 final (Montreal). The Greek’s appearance in the Stockholm title match was no surprise, but the same cannot be said of his opponent. A resurgent Gulbis, who basically disappeared in 2015 and 2016, had not advanced to an ATP final since 2014 and he had to qualify just to get in the Stockholm main draw. The Latvian did that, ousted Denis Shapovalov, got breadsticked by John Isner only to come back and win and three, and finally fell to Tsitsipas on championship Sunday.

5. Budapest: John Millman vs. Marco Cecchinato

In hindsight, of course, Cecchinato appearing in the final of a small clay-court event is no surprise whatsoever. But this Budapest tournament came before the French Open–before Cecchinato was a household name. In fact, the Italian was still so obscure at the time that he had to play in qualifying. He actually lost in qualies but received a lucky-loser spot in the main draw and the rest is history. Millman, the eventual runner-up, turned in a similarly unexpected run. The most bizarre thing about it is that the Aussie isn’t even any good on clay! But he knocked off No. 1 seed Lucas Pouille in round two on the way to his first and only ATP title match.

4. Kitzbuhel: Martin Klizan vs. Denis Istomin

This was a rare–but not entirely unheard of–qualifier vs. qualifier showdown in a final. Klizan’s run began by losing the first set of his first qualifying match, which he eventually survived in a third-set ‘breaker against Facundo Bagnis. The Slovak eventually took down No. 1 seed and second-best clay-courter in the world Dominic Thiem during second-round action. Whereas Klizan is really good on the red stuff, it is by far Istomin’s worst surface–making this matchup all the more improbable. The Uzbek defeated second-seeded Philipp Kohlschreiber before eventually getting run over by Klizan in the title match.

3. Sydney: Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex de Minaur

If we also had the benefit of hindsight for this one, it would not have been surprising. Both Medevedev and de Minaur went on to have massive years. Heading into the Australian summer, though, de Minaur was basically a no-name. The Aussie teenager paved the way for his Sydney run by reaching the Brisbane semis, so it did not entirely come out of nowhere. Medvedev had previously never captured an ATP title and had been to only one final–none in more than a full year. The Russian outlasted de Minaur in a three-set thriller and eventually won two more tournaments in 2018.

2. Istanbul: Taro Daniel vs. Malek Jaziri

Damn, Daniel! How did he win the Istanbul title?!?! This was a truly bizarre matchup that absolutely nobody could have predicted when the week started. It can be somewhat explained only because Istanbul is a relatively new, under-the-radar event that basically no one played in 2018 other than Marin Cilic and Cilic clearly wasn’t interested (Jaziri destroyed him 6-4, 6-2 in round two). Unsurprisingly, it remains the only ATP final appearance in their careers for both Daniel and Jaziri.

1. Sofia: Marius Copil vs. Mirza Basic

This was an equally shocking matchup and it gets the nod over Daniel vs. Jaziri simply because this tournament took place during the February indoor swing when a lot of decent players are both active and healthy. The Sofia field featured Stan Wawrinka as the top seed, but Wawrinka’s rust/injury woes opened the door for everyone else and Basic beat the Swiss in the semis. Basic then held off Copil in a tight three-setter in what remains his only ATP final. It was also Copil’s first title-match appearance, and he eventually went on to make an even more stunning run to the Basel final (lost to Roger Federer).

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