There are unseeded finalists at both ATP 500 events this week in Basel and Vienna. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will battle Ben Shelton for the title at the former, while the latter pits Karen Khachanov against Jack Draper.
Swiss Indoors Basel: (6) Ben Shelton vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shelton has been very consistent in 2024, but prior to arriving in Basel he had not made a particularly deep run since capturing a clay-court title in Houston. The 23rd-ranked American is putting it all together this week with victories over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Stan Wawrinka, Andrey Rublev, and Arthur Fils, losing just one set to the top-seeded Rublev along the way. A red-hot Fils had won 13 consecutive matches at the ATP 500 level before falling to his doubles partner 6-3, 7-6(9) on Saturday.
Up next for Shelton in Sunday’s championship match is a second meeting with Mpetshi Perricard. Their only previous encounter came this summer on the grass courts of Queen’s Club, where the 6’8” Frenchman prevailed 6-3, 7-6(3). Unsurprisingly, Mpetshi Perricard did not face a single break point in that match. The 21-year-old has not yet dropped serve in Basel and has been required to save just three break points–all in the quarterfinals against Denis Shapovalov. It would not be surprising if this match features zero service breaks and multiple tiebreakers (perhaps even three), but a slight edge goes to Shelton as an ATP 500 winner (Tokyo 2023) and given his extremely impressive form so far in Basel.
Pick: Shelton in 3
Erste Bank Open: (7) Jack Draper vs. Karen Khachanov
Draper and Khachanov will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers on Sunday in Vienna. Khachanov leads the head-to-head series 2-1, but their first match ended in a retirement by Draper while the score was level at a set apiece at the 2022 U.S. Open. They proceeded to split a pair of Adelaide contests in back-to-back weeks during the 2023 campaign.
Both guys are red hot right now. Khachanov is turning around a lackluster season just prior to the finish line, with a title last week in Almaty followed by Vienna defeats of Thiago Seyboth Wild, Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Berrettini, and Alex de Minaur. Draper’s success has been more consistent throughout 2024. The 22-year-old Brit is up to No. 18 in the world and is 14-3 in his last 17 tournament matches dating back to Cincinnati. He punched his ticket to this week’s final by beating Kei Nishikori, Luciano Darderi, Tomas Machac, and Lorenzo Musetti. You have to think Khachanov will hit the wall at some point–but even if he doesn’t, Draper is a slightly superior indoor player.
Pick: Draper in 3
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Mpetshi Perricard @ 3.20
Khachanov @ 2.40