Finals previews and picks: Nishikori vs. Giraldo, Dimitrov vs. Rosol

Dimitrov 1An unexpected Barcelona final will pit Kei Nishikori against Santiago Giraldo on Sunday. In Bucharest, meanwhile, Grigor Dimitrov and Lukas Rosol are battling for the title.

Santiago Giraldo vs. (4) Kei Nishikori

Giraldo and Nishikori will be going head-to-head for the seventh time in their careers when they square off in the final of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Sunday. Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 5-1 after dominating Giraldo 6-1, 6-3 last month in Indian Wells. Their only previous clay-court meeting came at the 2010 French Open, with the Japanese star mounting a 2-6, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-2, 6-4 comeback.

It has been a dream week for Giraldo, who certainly benefited from Rafael Nadal’s early exit in the top half of the draw when the Colombian knocked off Nicolas Almagro in straight sets on Saturday. Giraldo had to save multiple match points in a third-round thriller against Dominic Thiem. Nishikori has advanced with defeats of Roberto Bautista Agut, Andrey Golubev, Marin Cilic, and Ernests Gulbis. The No. 4 seed, who has looked better and better with each match this week, is bidding for his fifth career ATP title. Giraldo is a modest 0-1 lifetime in ATP finals. Clay should help the underdog to be more competitive than he was in the desert, but all signs point to a Nishikori victory.

Pick: Nishikori in 2

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(1) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Lukas Rosol

Don’t mess with Rosol at the BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy. The 28-year-old Czech had never reached an ATP final prior to last year’s installment of this event and he had not reached one since–at least not until this week. Bucharest’s defending champion is back in the title match thanks to wins over Filippo Volandri, Jarkko Nieminen, Gilles Simon, and Robin Haase. Rosol is now 12-10 for his 2014 campaign and has maintained fine form following a third-round performance in Monte-Carlo.

Standing in Rosol’s way on Sunday is Dimitrov, whom is in the midst of his most consistent season on tour. The 16th-ranked Bulgarian is an awesome 19-6 for the year with a title in Acapulco. He cooled off slightly in Indian Wells and Miami before advancing to the Monte-Carlo third round and taking out Jiri Vesely, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Gael Monfils (via first-set retirement) so far in Bucharest. Rosol moves well on clay, can hit through it, and has time to set up for his shots. Nonetheless, Dimitrov’s athletic defensive skills will be on display in this one and the top seed will likely force his opponent to play too many extended rallies.

Pick: Dimitrov in 2

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64 Comments on Finals previews and picks: Nishikori vs. Giraldo, Dimitrov vs. Rosol

  1. I think Nishi will beat Giraldo in two, possibly three sets. Nishi has been looking good this week. I had no doubt that he would beat Gulbis.

  2. Giraldo has done well to make it to the final, but Kei should win in 2. As for Rosol/Dimitrov, regardless of the logic of it, I’ll never pick Rosol…not ever. It just so happens that, in this case, I also happen to actually think that Dimi will win, hopefully in 2.

  3. The above comment is a response to JPA @5.55am

    Dimitriov for the win but more likely in 3 (not 2)

    @6:01 am.
    So you reckon Rosol would beat Fed should they play each other?

  4. Well played Dimi. His first clay court title. Thought he’d improved a lot since I last saw him, a while ago. Moved really well on clay and played with lots of variety. No 13 now. Would like to see him in the top 10 soon.
    Now go Kei!

  5. It’s Kei for me…………..what decided it for me is the colour of the shirt Giraldo’s wearing, same as the one Rafa wore that fateful day at RG……………..

  6. Ricky, are you watching? This Kei fellow ain’t half bad on clay, no? The way he’s changing direction is a dream…………….

  7. His success rate as top seed at the French Open is not great. He’s undefeated there when he is not so maybe this is his strategy. 🙂

    • How about this silver lining, ed251137: If Kei wins, the Federazzi will have a bone to hang on to, especially with Grisha having won in Bucharest as well. They will ooh and aah about the young ‘uns making a push for the top table and we will be spared the doom-laden theories about Rafa…………….

      • Hahaha! What did I tell you? Kei hasn’t finished swigging the champagne and they are already penciling him in as a dark horse for RG…

        RT @tennisabstract : “If you’re looking for a Roland Garros dark horse, Nishikori is making a case right now.”

    • For me it is, I am sick of all the gloom and doom about Rafa, he ain’t dead, nor has he forgotten how to play tennis! Let them ooh and aah about Grisha, Kei whoever……………

      So yes, being spared the negative chatter about Rafa is a silver lining for me………

  8. Well played Kei. Boring match though, as soon as a rally started Giraldo was stuffed!
    Guys ‘n gals in best of 3 anything can happen, and usually does. best of 5, cream usually rises to the top, so don’t go writing off RG quite yet!

  9. I know it’s only a 500 match but I bet the fans who paid good money to watch the SF and Final are feeling disappointed.

  10. I’m glad ‘Elvis’ left the building before the final.

    In a way, it’s good that someone other than the Big 4 has won a worthy title. It can’t be fun to be a camp follower and see the same players win everything all the time.

    • The real Rafa should be able to handle them all; Gulbis is the one player I don’t like to see in Rafa’s draw because he’s on a mission, although Rafa beat him pretty easily in Doha this year.

  11. @Nadline re: your hypothetical draw:

    I will be in despair if Rafa ever offers Elvis a 2nd bite at the cherry!

    Dimitrov has made the most progress and IMO is the most promising of the New Wave: I doubt I wouldI fall apart if he were to score a win over Rafa.

    Gulbis as always is a loose cannon but is less of a threat on clay. I agree. Rafa knows how to handle him. It will be a bitter pill to swallow if he
    catches Rafa on a bad day.

    Nishi is sneaking up on the top 10 but right now I very much doubt he will be a threat at Madrid. He still lacks the staying power to keep up his good form in back to back tourneys particularly at 1000 event,

    Ferru; Not impossible but unlikely.

    WaWa: No Wa(y)Wa(y)

    The unknown factor is how much Nadal is prepared to leave on the court prior to RG.

  12. I think Elvis celebrated so much on Friday night that he had a hangover on Saturday for the SF; He said in his PM interview that it was an important victory for his career. He can retire now.

    • I read somewhere some time back that Elvis was touted as the next big thing in Spanish tennis when he and Rafa when on the Junior Tour. It must have rankled to see Rafa’s spectacular ascendency, leaving him in the shade. Also read that the first Olympics Rafa attended, he shared a room with Elvis, apparently they were close then…………..

  13. If any of those players are considered to be a threat to Rafa, then things are worse than I thought. The one that I don’t like seeing in Rafa’s draw is Gulbis. He always comes out playing his best against Rafa and gives him a tough time.

    But if we are accepting the fact that Rafa is losing to players that he should and has beaten, then there would be cause for concern over those players being his draw. The simple truth is that there is no way to avoid some challenging players in any Masters event these days.

    It’s still up to Rafa. If he can sort it all out, then it’s on his racket.

  14. NNY: I doubt anybody is even thinking let alone suggesting those guys are capable of being a serious threat to Rafa. All of them are capable of beating him – three of them already have – so It is unrealistic to believe it won’t happen again. The time to be seriously alarmed is if one or more of them make a habit of it 🙁

    • ed,

      I know that we are all having a difficult time right now. At this point we just don’t know what to expect in Madrid. That was the one tournament that I thought would be most problematic for Rafa to win again. But that was before all these recent losses. I figured that Rafa had an excellent shot at winning MC and Barcelona. That didn’t happen, so I am not looking to Madrid with good feelings. There will be challenges even in the early rounds of that tournament. I honestly do not know what to expect. But I don’t think the problem is with who will be in Rafa’s draw. Unfortunately, the problem is with Rafa right now.

      I agree with you that we should be alarmed if one or more of them make a habit of beating him. You are absolutely right there.

  15. none of these players are a serious threat to Rafa if they meet him before the quarters…the “quarterfinal curse” is what I am worried about and on that given day any of them can beat Rafa…If Rafa is able to cross that line and moves to semis he will win the title… 🙂

    Rafa is superstitious and so are we his fans!

    Vamos Rafa!

    • ^^^Oh man……….why did Fed have to get back into the Top 4 then? Out of the Top 4 we could still count on him meeting Rafa in the quarters thus GUARANTEEING Rafa a pass into the semis!

      Instead, he might meet Elvis and his banjo……………….. :'(

      • @nadline10, April 28, 2014 at 1:39 pm,

        Truth be told, I’m a nervous wreck…………and it’s Rafa’s fault! Don’t know if I could bear to see him mauled the way he was by Elvis in the 3rd set……..stuff of nightmares. *gulp*

        But, we have to believe, no?

  16. @ nadline28,

    it’s time to put your lucky shirt on again…I have a feeling that it might help… 🙂

    Hello, we definitely have to do something to help our Rafa! We all agree Rafa this year has had a lot of bad luck… 🙁

    I will start again with my rituals which I implemented before each Rafa’s match during 2013…call me crazy but let’s see if it does any good… 🙂

    • Please do @natashao2013, the Rafanation will be eternally grateful!! Science be danged!So tired of ruined weekends………..

    • nats, the last time I had that top on was when Rafa lost to Davy in Doha in 2010. I decided not to wear it again. I don’t even know where it is now. I used to tie myself up in knots with superstitions over Rafa, then I decided it was silly because why should any of it affect anything as he has millions of fans doing all kinds of wishful thinking.

      I think Rafa will come out of his slump sooner or later. Let’s not forget that this time last year, Nole was losing everything in early rounds.

      • @nadline10,

        I know dear, I know…it is just that I am looking for any type of “infused luck” that can come from our side but deep inside I am aware that it makes little sense…however, I know Rafa is superstitious so why not try some of those that worked before… 😀

  17. At this point I can agree that if Rafa can get past the quarterfinals, that would be a breakthrough. That’s where things get really tough. I am for any rituals or good luck charms or whatever to send good vibes to Rafa.

    Rafa needs our support now more than ever. I will be cheering him on, every step of the way. He needs a little bit of luck and maybe winning a difficult match against a quality opponent to get back on track. I truly hope it happens for him in Madrid.

    • then please no more sleeping through Rafa’s matches. We need you all the way…I know the time difference is a huge problem, I understand you are tired, but we have this big task right now! Rafa needs every one of us to send him some good vibes! 😀

      Next time Rafa plays we need you to stay with us and watch the match from the very beginning…deal? 🙂

      • @natashao,

        Is this for me? I always try to stay up and watch Rafa’s matches. I absolutely will do my best to be there cheering him on all the way!

        I will be looking for you as I stay up until all hours! 🙂

        • Great! Thank you!

          We have to stick together! 🙂 Rafa needs us! I know he is far from knowing that we exist 🙂 but I believe our joint support will send some good vibes to our Rafa and will provide him with some luck that he needs and did not have these last couple of months…

          Vamos Tenngrand Brigade! 😀

  18. Djokovic is engaged in one of his ‘misinformation’ campaigns (last year it was the ankle, this year it’s the wrist). I’m harbouring the secret hope that Rafa is hiding his light under a bushel up until RG and will storm back to blow all his opponents off the court.

    #What’sGoodForTheGooseIsGoodForTheGander

  19. It’s kinda neat that Dimitrov and Sharapova won title matches on the same day.

    A gal can’t have too many Porsches lol.

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