Finals previews and picks: Nadal vs. Troicki, Goffin vs. Mahut

June 13, 2015 Ricky Match previews 154

Troicki 4Rafael Nadal is one win away from the Stuttgart title, with Viktor Troicki standing in his way on Sunday. In ‘s-Hertogenbosch, meanwhile, David Goffin and Gilles Muller are battling in the final.

Stuttgart: (1) Rafael Nadal vs. (8) Viktor Troicki

Nadal and Troicki will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers when they meet in the final of the Mercedes Cup on Sunday. All four of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, but they have never faced each other on anything other than hard courts. The two veterans have also not squared off since 2010, when the Spaniard prevailed 6-1, 6-3 in Doha and 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(7) in Tokyo.

This is the first-ever grass-court final for Troicki, who has advanced with wins over Borna Coric, Alexander Zverev, Sam Groth, and Marin Cilic–the latter in a third-set tiebreaker. The 28th-ranked Serb is 23-12 on the season and bidding for his second title (he previously triumphed in Sydney as a qualifier). Nadal has also dropped two sets this week, in successive matches against Marcos Baghdatis and Bernard Tomic. The world No. 10 then picked up the pace with a 6-3, 6-4 defeat of Gael Monfils on Saturday. Nadal is through to his first final on grass since Wimbledon in 2011. With his confidence finally growing, Nadal should be able to take care of business without too much trouble.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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‘s-Hertogenbosch: (WC) Nicolas Mahut vs. (2) David Goffin

Each of Mahut’s two career ATP titles have come at 250-point grass-court events. In fact, they came in the span of just a few weeks during the summer of 2013, when the Frenchman triumphed in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Newport. Two years later he is looking to win the Topshelf Open title once again, and for the second straight time as a qualifier. So far this week the world No. 97 has taken out Lleyton Hewitt, Roberto Bautista Agut, Adrian Mannarino, and Robin Haase following qualification victories over Oliver Marach, Jurgen Zopp, and Kenny De Schepper.

Mahut will look to cap off his run in Sunday’s final against Goffin. Their only previous meeting came three seasons ago on the hard courts of Winston-Salem, where the Belgian scored a 7-6(3), 6-1 win. Goffin earned his place in this title match by defeating Jurgen Melzer, Illya Marchenko, and Gilles Muller. The world No. 15 is also looking for his third ATP title, having twice lifted trophies in 2014 (on the clay of Kitzbuhel and the indoor hard courts of Metz). Although both men have enjoyed at least some success on all surfaces, grass is obviously what Mahut would choose to contest this matchup. He will be helped additionally by the fact that three of his main-draw conquests have relatively similar playing styles to that of Goffin. It will not be easy, but don’t be surprised if Mahut pulls off one more upset at what may have to be considered his favorite tournament.

Pick: Mahut in 3

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154 Comments on Finals previews and picks: Nadal vs. Troicki, Goffin vs. Mahut

      • Girl, I have no idea what happen there…lol!!!!!! I tried to edit but it proved futile but at least u still know its me!!! But I see you as Nadline10, now ,any versions of you you’ve got!!!lol!!!

        Reply

        • I’ve had problems too. I think I was nadline to start with then something happened and my posts were going to spam so I re-registered as nadline10.

          Reply

  8. Mahut-Goffin is going to be some pretty tennis.

    I enjoy Goffin’s tennis, but I’d very much like Mahut to win a title.

    May the best man win that one.

    Reply

  9. Now that I have seen both Rafa/Monfils and Cilic/Troicki, I feel confident that Rafa will win this final. I did vote for two sets. Hopefully, Rafa will get it done in straight sets. I was quite impressed with Rafa, now that I have seen the whole match. He is hitting his shots with accuracy and confidence. Some beautiful DTL forehand and backhands for winners. Also, he is looking to move into the court and hit volleys to close out points. Much more aggressive play from Rafa.

    I thought Monfils played well, except for a few botched volleys at the net and other mistakes. Rafa was just too good. I just wish that I could see the final live. They have not shown any matches live on the tennis channel. All matches are tape delayed. And I do mean delayed, like at 6:00 pm my time.

    I have not been watching the other tournament, so I will not make any prediction.

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  11. My guess is Troicki will be the one with nerves this afternoon. Rafa is doing a good job controlling his. Now I just have to learn to watch with more ‘com’ 🙂

    Rafa in two sets

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  13. Happy yo see that Rafa seems to have risen from the ashes of his loss at RG. He seems yo be focused on making a good run at Wimby which I am so happy about. He xAm still won LA decimal any time but I would like m so much to win another Wimby and AO and then its OK for me. I get the feeling that Rafa’mentality is right where it needs to be!! I have a good feeling about Rafa’s game going forward! Vamos Rafa!!!

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  21. I wish Frew McMillan would just shut up about what he thinks Nadal should be doing. He was just a mediocre doubles player in his day.

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  22. Rafa comes up with a MONSTER 2nd serve! that one was going away from troicki and had plenty of kick ! one of the best second serves I am ever seen him hit.

    He wins the game with a powerful serve down the middle. 4-4

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  25. DF troicki…30-30…. troicki controls the next point..he is not allowing rafa to set up for his shots…really flattening out his groundies! 4-5 rafa to serve .

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  26. this final is all on rafa’s racket which means all between his ears
    this week with this opponent that should be ok

    next week with bigger fish hopefully too

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    • I spoke a little too soon… but hopefully rafa will be ok once ‘warmed up’

      else I’ll blame it squarely on his anxiety…
      yesterday over lunch long chat with my wife (with the psych background) telling her more of rafa’s peculiars over the years and the increased number of pre and during match rituals and other stuff. Clearly anxiety and ocd and it is the expected way for it to get worse over time, especially when not treated, alas.

      If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, smells like a duck.. you might think I am criticising our dear boy from the island but far from… just getting clarity of what it is that is ailing him… no shame on him in that… just wish he would get the appropriate pro help that anyone in his place needs and deserves.

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  30. Rafa DEFINITELY going for more on his second serves… 30-30

    A rally ensues and rafa’s backhand CC rules the court! 40-30

    Strong serve… 5-5! pheww

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  34. Good first serve 15-0

    Ace out-wide 30-0

    Magnificent swinging serve 40-0

    BOOM , ace up the middle . game Nadal. 6-6

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  36. it was not a high quality tie break at all but again, rafa served extremely well! he finished the set with his NINTH ace so far! Bravo

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      • yep! his baseline game is not close to the level we saw against Monfils but Troicki is also putting a lot of pressure with his flat ground strokes.

        So far he has made one great return off a first serve and that was the first point of the TB…a solid CC backhand return

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      • No, it is more about rafa’s standard being so high! I judge him according to that standard…

        Fantastic backhand drop volley and a series of great serves…love hold!

        Rafa’s volleying is so good! He has struggled lately so not much positive has been said about his game but I was impressed with his volleying even during the clay season!

        Certainly one of the best volleyers. His drop volleys are better than federer’s , in my opinion.

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  38. A short angled CC backhand by rafa forced Troicki approach the net with a forehand slice and rafa made him pay with a vicious CC backhand pass…

    Rafa now hits a perfect backhand 2nd serve return which landed on the baseline 0-30

    Troicki serves big ! 30-30

    D.fault ! 30-40

    2nd serve…rafa electing to retreat and hits a forehand return from deep behind the baseline…defends with the forehand with plenty of spin AND troicki sends a forehand long! BREAK !! 😀 3-1 rafa

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  40. This tournament , rafa’s service peformance has been the best since USO 2010 or Tokyo 2010 (when he beat Troicki in the final, hitting 18 aces )

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  41. Wow! I just got here to catch up on the score and how the match is going!

    vamosrafa,

    Love the play-by-play! It’s really a great help to know how Rafa is doing. I wondered how his nerves would hold up.

    Winning the tb in the first set is a good thing! It sounds like Troicki came to play. After watching Cilic/Troicki, I thought he might make a match of this.

    Now Rafa, let’s get this done in two sets!

    Reply

    • no problem 🙂

      Yes, Troicki has played some good grass court tennis! Rafa has been very sharp in terms of exploiting any slip ups by his opponent.

      You have to watch his serving performance! such a treat

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  42. I just checked the live score – Rafa up 4-1!

    Come on Rafa ! You can do this!

    I want you to bite that trophy!

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  43. Rafa’s ground strokes have been up and down today…not that great but he has been solid enough….his SERVE has been the winning shot so far!

    As I write this, another free point off his serve! Phenomenal ! 4-2 15-0

    Another well placed serve, good forehand DTL and a splendid forehand drop volley winner 😉 so cool!

    LOL, is he listening to me lol… good forehand DTL, followed by a vicious CC forehand in the open court , followed by a forehand volley winner! 40-0

    BOOM , ACE! 5-2

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  44. just following here… it would be a good sign to see rafa not have a sudden dip in confidence close to a possible match end

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  45. It’s great news to hear that it’s Rafa serve that is doing the job. That has been his Achilles heel for too long. So it’s a good thing!

    Just one more game! Hold your serve Rafa and the title is yours!

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  55. WHAT A SUPERB FOREHAND SMASH to seal the match!

    WOHOOOO!!! first title on grass since 2010 😀 😀

    Congrats , rafans!!

    suchhhhhhhh a great week! massive confidence boost

    to all those haters who have jumped to conclusions that rafa no longer can get it done on grass, watch out! He certainly has the game! He can go one more gear up from here . Keep it up, rafa!

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    • fantastic result vamosrafa!! so happy for rafa! thanks for your great game by game commentary….
      Satan holds the copyright on the atp website and the liveapp is an utter misnomer as it is dead as a dodo….

      Reply

      • hahaha…you’ve a good sense of humor , amy 🙂

        Glad my game by game commentary came in handy for you guys 🙂

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      • This morning they apologised for the teething problems and went on to invite feed back.
        Had pleasure in giving them my two cents worth.

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  57. The serving stats for Rafa are unreal! Eleven aces!

    This is going to be such a big confidence boost for Rafa going into Queens. Just what he needed! Another title on the grass!

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  59. I know this is only a 250 tourney but the matches have been of very high quality, at least the ones I saw, apart from the Troicki/Cilic SF where Cilic had a sore arm.

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      • For some reason, Novak never plays any grass warm up tournaments leading up to Wimby. However, with that extra week one would think he might take advantage of it.

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  61. Rafa is not #7 in the ATP race for 2015 . He currently has 2,810 points and trails federer by only 15 points (federer has 2,825 points).

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  62. I am pleased that Rafa faced some solid competition on the way to this win. It’s not like some 250 tournaments where there are a lot of lower ranked players.

    That’s why I think this is going to give him more confidence.

    His serve has been so good throughout the tournament. Stats are the best I’ve seen in some time. His movement looks strong on the court. His groundstrokes seem to have depth and accuracy.

    Whatever nerves he might have had, in the end he was able to get this done in straight sets! Well done, Rafa! 🙂

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    • exactly! the competition was solid ! He did not have any easy matches and he dispatched some in-form players .

      -His serve was majestic the whole week
      -His forehand has regained a lot of steadiness
      -His backhand was very aggressive and precise
      -ROS was generally good but he has to improve as this is his biggest challenge on grass
      -His movement was explosive!

      *Rafa’s backhand is such a big weapon on grass. The shot is very well suited to grass courts actually. I used to rate his backhand as one of the best on grass when he was making finals and winning wimbledon. His compact swing, follow through are well suited to the surface. The fact that the ball does not bounce too high on grass probably also helps him execute his backhand. Murray and Novak pummel his backhand with heavy forehands and Murray once said that rafa is prone to making errors if you give him heavy, high bouncing balls on the backhand side (yes , murray said that!) . Hence, rafa is able to control and flatten out his backhands on grass well. He also possesses the best backhand passing shots on the tour and that is crucial on grass.

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      • i remember even back in 06 the commies saying that they could not believe the shots rafa was able to hit off his backhand in the final. before, they were saying that it would not hold up on grass but in the second and third sets he hit some absolutely fantastic shots off the backhand. his numbers for both the second and third set were amazing…i seem to remember he had sth like 15 winners 3 UE in the third set (he should have won the second as well). people like not to remember that even in this first meeting on grass rafa had fed in loads of trouble and it should really have been a five setter.

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      • absolutely! he was up a break in the second and he missed an easy overhead too I think. He could also have won the tie break. Lack of experience and federer’s aura let to his undoing . He almost did it in 2007 but winning it in 2008 was really sweet so no regrets.

        I am glad you remember how big a weapon his backhand was even in 2006 wimby! Do you remember how well he hit it against Agassi in the 3rd rnd! Spectacular

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      • vamosrafa,

        My sense after watching the tape delayed broadcasts of Rafa’s matches, is that his DTL backhand is really firing right now. He was hitting that shot with some accuracy and precision. As you said, Rafa is able to flatten it out on grass and I think it’s even more of a weapon.

        I was happy to see his serving improve quite a bit. Also, as you said his movement was explosive. That’s the word I was searching for earlier. That has also been missing for a good part of this year. His movement is so crucial to his overall game. When he is moving with power and speed, then his shots are that much harder to deal with in matches.

        There are so many good things to take out of this tournament. It’s just what Rafa needed right now. You can see it on his face, too! He seems so much more relaxed.

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  63. I have been waiting for this extra week between RG and Wimby for a long time! I always thought an additional week would help rafa a lot as long as he is healthy. His knees seem to be in great condition right now and he did not have a taxing RG this time ! He left RG with plenty of juice. Had a couple of days to practice before the tournament and then he goes on to win it! IDEAL. He is fresh, playing great and more practice coming up for him!

    If he can beat stan in the qtr final, that would be sooo awesome!

    Any news on Raonic? is he fit to play?

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    • I don’t know anything about Raonic. He’s just coming back from that foot injury that cost him RG. I don’t know what his form will be like coming back from injury.

      Now I am already thinking about the draw at Queens. Rafa won’t have an easy match right out of the gate with Dolgo. Tricky player who can be brilliant or awful. But coming off this win, I think Rafa will be so much better prepared for Queens.

      Also, Rafa has gained rankings points! Yippee!!!

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  64. Rafa is smiling so much he’s going to break his face! Lol. Reminds me of when he won USO in 2010 and got his career GS. Love a smiley Rafa.

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  65. I cannot wait to see the replay later on! It will be good see a smiley Rafa! Finally, he’s got something to be happy about this year!

    The best thing that could have happened to Rafa right now! 🙂

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  66. Asked about the Mercedes super car Rafa says with a huge grin: “It is not a Kia, but it is still good.”

    Superb!

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  68. Congrats Rafa!!! Congrats Rafans.

    Slow and steady on the way UP. He will have a better period post RG I told and I am sure he will deliver barring injury. The pressure of coming back from injury and expected to be performing on clay was a big monster and since that monkey is off the back, he can play freely.

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  69. Thanks vamosrafa..saw the highlights

    Triocki hits so hard off both wings.. I rem in 2010 after Rafa won USO..Triocki really pushed him so hard in next tourney and Rafa won the match by a whisker.

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    • I remember that match back in 2010. Was it Shanghai? That was when Rafa still had the big USO serve. He must have served a record number of aces to pull out the win in that one.

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  71. Short distance in points to be #4… esp with very few points to defend through October.

    Rafa PLEASE get a bit of pro help with the anxiety and PLEASE get pro help from a former champion.. 🙂

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    • Yes, this is true when you look at the rankings. With only points to defend at Wimby, Rafa should be able to get back up in the rankings.

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      • I do know the difference with the Race points after all these years 🙂

        I read so fast earlier (busy on a project and just dipping in here) I forgot these were race points, I thought he was miraculously that much closer in 12 months rolling points getting him to a number 4 seeding 🙂

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    • You think I did not know that? 🙂 Why are you such a matron? 🙂

      There will always be ups n downs between tournaments..What matters is points End of year as Rafa always says. You can follow his advise since you like him so much.

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      • I don’t know why anyone has to be corrected or admonished as they were were children. My comment was merely stating the fact that Rafa does not have any points to defend for the rest of the year, with the exception of Wimbledon.

        My focus is not on the race to London. My focus is on Rafa getting back up in the rankings. I hope that is now clear.

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      • I don’t know why should anyone who looks at the Race write: “Yes, this is true when you look at the rankings. With only points to defend at Wimby…” (NNY at 4:09 pm to chloro at 4:08 pm).

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    • There was an interesting interview with McIlroy in the Times Review two weeks ago (30th May) where he talks about how he managed to overcame his nerves after his humiliating defeat at of the Augusta Open in 2011.

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      • @augusta 6:32 pm

        Maybe because my mind is mainly on the rankings! Just because I inserted my comment after you posted the status of the race to London, does not mean that I was referring to that. It was coincidence.

        Again one more time, my main focus is on Rafa getting back up in the rankings. I regularly check on the rankings both on VB and on the ATP website. My comments are being misinterpreted and not for the first time either! 🙂

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  72. Rafa at the trophy ceremony: “[It] has been a couple of tough years for me to play on grass, [I had] a lot of problems with my knees, but today I am ready to play again on grass, my knees are well.” [Source: a video]

    That’s great to hear, Rafa!

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  74. Wow..Rafa is leader in outdoor titles

    Genny SS ‏@genny_ss 3h3 hours ago
    CORRECTION: Titles outdoors in Open Era: Nadal 64, Federer 64, Vilas 56, Connors 55, Lendl 52, Agassi 48, Djokovic 43, Murray 21

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  75. Take a bow all those who predicted a straight sets win. Had to miss the match (my mother’s 97th birthday took precedence. Looking forward to watch it later on Catch Up.

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  76. I will take a bow! This time I did predict a straight sets win for Rafa! I felt confident, especially after seeing his performance against Monfils. I thought he was playing well enough to get it done in two sets for the win.

    I am still celebrating! It’s a good feeling.

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  77. There was one funny moment in that video Vamosrafa posted of the trophy ceremony. When they gave Rafa the keys to that Mercedes and then he got in to kind of get the sense of it, then he said that the color was a bit too much for him. He doesn’t seem crazy about that bright yellow! I agree with him!

    He’s always so diplomatic, even when he is not thrilled with the color of the car that he won!

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  78. I predict this win will put a stop to the “off with Uncle Toni’s head” whispering campaign………….until his next loss.

    Oh Rafa…………………………you will be the death of us.

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    • ^^^^RITB
      Did you notice the oblique dig at the ‘anti’ U.Toni smear campaign in his acceptance speech when he acknowledged their role by saying: “he might’ve done it without them but it was much easier with them”.

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      • @ed251137, I continue to marvel at Rafa’s grasp of the English language. That was one “pregnant” phrase you quoted there. His subtlety is amazing.

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  79. Really happy to know Rafa won, had to run off to church but thank God he won!! Hope that that is a prelude to what is to come in then glass season! Now on go basket ball, hope Lebron makes me happy today too!!!!! My two KINGS and I………..lol!!!

    Reply

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