The first championship Sunday of 2013 grass-court action will take place in Halle and London. Roger Federer is facing Mikhail Youzhny and Andy Murray is going up against Marin Cilic.
(1) Roger Federer vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Federer and Youzhny will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when the two veterans collide in the Gerry Weber Open final on Sunday. One of the most lopsided head-to-head series in the entire sport has Federer leading 14-0, including 6-0 on grass and 4-0 already at this Halle event. Their two most recent encounters came last season on the green stuff; Federer prevailed 6-1, 6-4 in the Halle semis and 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 in the Wimbledon quarters.
At the moment, Youzhny is surging into form almost entirely out of nowhere. The 30-year-old Russian was a horrendous 7-10 for the season heading into Madrid, but he advanced two rounds there before making a run to the fourth round of the French Open. So far in Halle, Youzhny has taken out Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Kei Nishikori, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and second-seeded Richard Gasquet. Federer is bouncing back nicely from blowout losses in Rome (to Rafael Nadal) and at Roland Garros (to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). Finding comfort at one of his favorite tournaments, the five-time Halle champion booked his spot in the title match with scalps of Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, Mischa Zverev (by a 6-0, 6-0 scoreline), and Tommy Haas.
Youzhny is playing great tennis right now and he is surprisingly accomplished on grass, but this is simply a terrible matchup for the world No. 29. In addition to his winless mark against Federer, Youzhny is 3-32 lifetime in 35 contested sets and 2-14 in 16 grass-court sets. While the underdog went nine for nine in service games against Gasquet on Saturday, his serve is by no means his biggest attribute and he will likely need a poor serving day from Federer in order to stay competitive. The quality and shot-making in this one should be stellar, but the top-seeded Swiss will likely once again have too much game.
Pick: Federer 6-3, 6-4
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(1) Andy Murray vs. (5) Marin Cilic
Cilic is at least on the scoreboard against Murray heading into their 10th career meeting in the final of the AEGON Championships on Sunday afternoon. The Croat’s lone win in the series came at the 2009 U.S. Open via a surprising 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 romp. Murray has won eight of their nine previous clashes, including two on grass. They most recently faced each other three months ago in Miami, where Murray scored a 6-4, 6-3 victory. Cilic very nearly notched one other scalp of Murray at the 2012 U.S. Open, but he squandered all of a 6-3, 5-1 lead and lost 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2, 6-0.
The defending Queen’s Club champion has to be feeling comfortable at this event, because he just now rounding into form following a dismal stretch in April and May. Cilic’s bid for a repeat title includes defeats of Ivan Dodig, Feliciano Lopez, Tomas Berdych, and Lleyton Hewitt. The world No. 12, who had won only half of his last 10 matches prior to this week, is now 24-10 for his 2013 campaign. Murray, a two-time king of Queen’s (2009 and 2011), advanced to the final with victories over Nicolas Mahut, Marinko Matosevic, Benjamin Becker, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Although the second-ranked Scot’s clay-court season was derailed by a back problem, he is still an outstanding 26-5 for the year.
Cilic’s 2012 and 2013 Queen’s Club performances notwithstanding, he is not at his best on grass. Murray, on the other hand, is a former Wimbledon runner-up and he triumphed at the All-England Club during the London Olympics (both accomplishments achieved last summer). Cilic is not going to get a gift like he did in last year’s final (David Nalbandian was disqualified for unsportsmanlike conduct) from this kind of opponent.
Pick: Murray in 2
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