Expert picks: Nadal vs. the field at the French Open

Expert picks will continue during the latter stages of the French Open, but first they partake in a pre-tournament debate over whether Rafael Nadal or the entire field should be the title pick. A three-team panel weighs in.

Ricky: Until Nadal loses again at the French Open, I’m not betting against him–unless maybe he failed to win any clay-court title in the buildup to Roland Garros and suffered some terrible losses along the way. That isn’t the case now. Sure the world No. 3 has not been at his dominant best this spring, but he has endured worse pre-FO clay-court swings in the past and still ended up triumphing in Paris. Beating him in a best-of-five situation on his primary stomping grounds is just a whole different beast compared to taking him down in places like Monte-Carlo or Madrid.

I am picking Nadal as the champ without hesitation. There is no one player who looks like a more likely champion. The better debate, of course, is Nadal vs. the entire field. Give me 127 other players and I would at least have to think about it. The odds suggest as much; Nadal is -125 to win the tournament; a huge favorite over everyone individually, but just a slight favorite over the field. His draw is somewhat concerning, with Novak Djokovic in the same half and Jannik Sinner a potential fourth-round opponent. At the same time, avoiding a potential quarterfinal clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas was important. The Spaniard will have worked himself into the tournament by the time he could face Sinner and then Djokovic, and I certainly wouldn’t pick Tsitsipas or Alexander Zverev over him in a French Open final. Nadal isn’t an absolute slam dunk like he sometimes is, but I’m not about to bet against him when he has won this thing 13 times and begins his bid for 14 with the momentum of a recent title in Rome.

Cheryl: The French Open offers an annual opportunity to ruminate on the chances the other 127 singles players in the field have against Rafael Nadal. Usually, that answer is “why even bother to ask?” This season is perhaps a bit more nuanced. Is Nadal the favorite? Of course. When I make my pre-tournament selection, I will ink (not pencil) Nadal in as the winner. The difference is that the field is closer than it normally is–close enough that it is worth discussing. In fact, as a whole it may have enough to topple Nadal. I’m going to go off-script and pick Tsitsipas over Djokovic as the next most likely player to lift La Coupe des Mousquetaires in a fortnight’s time. Djokovic has looked a little…shaky…on the dirt. As of this publication, he has no clay titles in 2021 (that could change on Saturday) and while he made the finals in Rome (where he lost to Nadal), he was neither dominant nor in particularly impressive form. Tsitsipas HAS been impressive, even though he lost to Nadal in the Barcelona final. Other notable non-Nadal contenders are Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner–who are both in Nadal’s section–and Casper Ruud, who is in the ghost-town bottom section of the draw with Tsitsipas. 

Conspicuously absent from my contenders list are Thiem–who has been knocking on Nadal’s throne room door for years–and Federer. Thiem, who last made the French Open final in 2019, has gone on a mental walkabout since he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s in the favorable third section of the draw and Ruud is still my pick to advance in that quarter. As for Federer, well…he just isn’t match-fit enough to be a contender in Paris. Still, Djokovic and Tsitsipas are formidable. If I had to pick only one player as the champ I would go with Nadal, but give me the entire field and I like my chances with 127 guys vs. one.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Match play….. THAT is what Nadal needed. Enough match play and he is more than good to go to defend his Roland Garros crown against Djokovic and the rest of the field in 2021. All of these years many have questioned and even criticized Nadal for playing Barcelona, a 500 in the midst of three significantly more prestigious Masters 1000 events on clay. Nadal did things HIS way, this year and every year for the last decade and a half. These extra–and in some cases excessive matches–were what he believed he needed to prepare for winning Roland Garros. To date, that strategy and formula have worked exceptionally well. An atypical Nadal meandered through the clay-court season, eventually correcting course and winning the title in Rome against Djokovic in the final.  Somehow, the next meeting they may have would occur in the semifinals because they are on the same side of the draw this time.  With all due respect to the field in his portion of the draw, let us fast forward to the quarterfinals–where the Spaniard will most likely run into Andrey Rublev, the crafty young Russian who defeated him last month in the Monte-Carlo quarters. Rublev won the first and third sets at 6-2. However, that was extremely early in the clay-court season for the 34-year old Nadal. He then rebounded in Barcelona (won that title against Tsitsipas), faltered against Zverev in the Madrid quarters, and then went on a most impressive run by defeating Sinner, Shapopalov, Zverev, Opelka, and finally Djokovic to win Rome for the 10th time. In total, 16 clay-court matches played in 2021 with two titles…enough match play and not too much for Nadal at this point in his career.

Expect Nadal to continue his assault against those who stand in his way yet again and win his quarter against Rublev to reach the semis. Next, Nadal would most likely face Djokovic for the NINTH time at Roland Garros. Nadal leads the H2H in Paris 7-1 and has a massive 20-7 sets won differential in those contests. Djokovic will have work to do to reach this point, as potential quarter final opponents include Berrettini and Federer. All signs point to a Nadal-Djokovic semifinal. Nadal may find himself down a break or even 0-40 while serving a few times in the match, but just as in the past, he will find ways to get through those deficits and bad patches and win.

Everyone on the bottom half congratulated themselves on their good fortune when they saw the draw. The contenders that were drawn here include: Zverev, Thiem and Tsitsipas, with Dimitrov and Ruud also announcing the fact that they think they can win this half of the draw and then hope for an exhausted opponent in the final. Realistic quarterfinals here would be Zverev vs. Thiem and Tsitsipas vs. Dimitrov.  Despite the focus being on the top half of the draw, these quarterfinals will be intriguing. Obviously much remains to be seen, but my pre-tourney picks here will be Zverev to play Tsitsipas in the semifinals with the Greek winning the match. Thus, the Roland Garros final will be a rematch of the Barcelona final–in which Nadal outfoxed Tsistipas and stole the title. Tsitsipas will have learned from that match and will attempt a slightly different gameplan this time. Historically, Tsitsipas’ losses at Roland Garros have been against Djokovic, Wawrinka, Thiem, and Karlovic. Nadal, a 13-time RG champion, may join that list.