Dubai final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Verdasco

Andy Murray and Fernando Verdasco will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers at the ATP level when they battle for the title at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships on Saturday night.

Murray is dominating the head-to-head series 12-1, including 9-1 on hard courts. Verdasco’s lone victory came via a 2-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 decision in round four of the 2009 Australian Open, a memorable event that saw the Spaniard reach the semifinals before losing a five-set epic against Rafael Nadal. Murray has since defeated Verdasco seven straight times, including in five sets in 2013 Wimbledon quarterfinals and 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-5 at the Paris Masters last fall.

The world No. 1’s trek to this championship match was straightforward 75 percent of the time (straight-set wins over Malek Jaziri, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Lucas Pouille). The other 25 percent was nothing of the sort. In a wild quarterfinal on Thursday, Murray saved seven match points against Philipp Kohlschreiber during a second-tiebreaker that last 31 minutes and eventually survived 6-7(4), 7-6(18), 6-1. The top-seeded Scot is now 11-2 this season and one victory away from his first title.

Verdasco is through to the final following defeats of Andreas Seppi, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gael Monfils, and Robin Haase. This run came mostly out of nowhere for the world No. 35, who had been 1-4 in his last five matches prior to arriving in Dubai. He did, however, reach the Doha semifinals in early January before squandering multiple match points against Novak Djokovic.

“He’s had a pretty good start to the year,” Murray cautioned. “Obviously (he had a) tough draw in Australia (lost to Djokovic in the first round), but he played well in Doha. Had the match points against Novak–couldn’t quite get that one done, but I think he played very well there.

“Obviously this week he’s had some good wins. I think where the balls are fairly heavy here on a quick court, he can generate a lot of power, he can control the ball. And when he’s dictating the points, he’s one of the best in the world at doing that.”

Unfortunately Verdasco, Murray is one of the best in the world at countering opponents who dictate the points. The favorite will be well-rested, too, because he bounced back from his grueling effort against Kohlschreiber to slide past Pouille in routine fashion. Verdasco’s victories have been nothing to sneeze at, but producing the same kind of stuff at Murray’s expense is a whole different beast from doing so against the likes of Haase, Bautista Agut, and even Monfils.

And even though Murray is expected to win, Verdasco will feel plenty of pressure. The underdog has not captured a title of this size since 2010 in Barcelona.

Pick: Murray in 2

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