Dubai, Acapulco, and Sao Paulo previews and predictions

Dubai rarely takes a backseat to anything going on at the same time, but that will certainly be the case in 2018. For the final February week, Acapulco is the best of the trio—and it isn’t even close. Rafael Nadal is back from the hip injury that he sustained Down Under, and the world No. 2 is joined in the Acapulco field by Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, and Juan Martin Del Potro. Grigor Dimitrov headlines an unusually weak field in Dubai, while the Golden Swing wraps up unceremoniously in Sao Paulo.

Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Where: Acapulco, Mexico
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $1,642,795

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Sam Querrey

Draw analysis: Nadal has slipped to second in the rankings behind Roger Federer, but that is just about where the bad news ends for the Spaniard. The most important news (no?) is that Nadal has apparently recovered from his hip issue and is ready to take the court for the first time since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Aussie Open quarterfinals. What looks like a friendly draw features a showdown against countryman Feliciano Lopez in the first round followed by either Thanasi Kokkinakis or a qualifier in the last 16. With two matches under his belt, Nadal could get a shot at revenge on Sam Querrey in the quarterfinals (Querrey’s incredible march to the 2017 title included upsets of David Goffin, Thiem, Nick Kyrgios, and Nadal). Also in the top half of the bracket this week are Jack Sock, Kevin Anderson, and Australian Open semifinalist Hyeon Chung.

Whoever emerges from the third quarter of the draw to reach the Acapulco semis will probably deserve a trophy even if he does not eventually capture the title. It is home to Thiem, Del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Denis Shapovalov, Andrey Rublev, and David Ferrer. Nishikori and Shapovalov are going head-to-head right off the bat, with the winner likely to face Thiem. Another blockbuster first-rounder pits Rublev against Ferrer and the winner of that one will be on course to meet Del Potro. At the bottom of the bracket, Diego Schwartzman (Rio de Janeiro champion), Fernando Verdasco (Rio de Janeiro runner-up), and Peter Gojowyczk (Delray Beach runner-up) are all making quick turnarounds. A more rested Zverev may be able to take advantage.

First-round upset alert: Ryan Harrison over (8) John Isner. Isner leads the head-to-head series 6-2, but Harrison has won one of their two encounters since 2013 (at the 2016 Canada Masters) and the other one he lost 7-6(6), 7-6(7) in the 2017 Atlanta final. Harrison will be happy face his fellow American somewhere other than Atlanta, where Isner is a four-time champion. And the 25-year-old certainly won’t be mind facing Isner right now, because the world No. 18 is slumping to the tune of a 2-4 record this season with recent losses to Matthew Ebden, Radu Albot, and Peter Gojowyczk.

Hot: Dominic Thiem, Andrey Rublev, Peter Gojowyczk, Diego Schwartzman, Fernando Verdasco, Radu Albot

Cold: Alexander Zverev, Jack Sock, John Isner, Kei Nishikori, Mischa Zverev

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Jared Donaldson, Kevin Anderson over Jack Sock, Andrey Rublev over Kei Nishikori, and Alexander Zverev over Ryan Harrison

Semifinals: Anderson over Nadal and Rublev over Zverev

Final: Anderson over Rublev

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Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

Where: Dubai, U.A.E.
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,623,485

Top seed: Grigor Dimitrov
2017 champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

Draw analysis: Novak Djokovic (hurt), Andy Murray (hurt), and Roger Federer (already back to No. 1 in the world) are Dubai mainstays who are on the sideline this time around. That leaves the top-seeded Dimitrov as the obvious title favorite. The reigning Nitto ATP Finals champion is 10-3 in 2018 with a semifinal showing in Brisbane, a quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open, and a runner-up performance in Rotterdam (lost to Federer). Dimitrov should not have much trouble until running into either Richard Gasquet or Roberto Bautista Agut in the semis, although potential quarterfinal foe Philipp Kohlschreiber is dangerous whenever he is at his best (rarely).

A softer bottom half of the Dubai draw is alarmingly wide open. Lucas Pouille is the only one of the four seeds in particularly strong form at the moment, and he has already endured a frantic February campaign with a title in Montpellier and a runner-up result in Marseille. Fatigue is almost certain to be a factor for the Frenchman. Marseille champion Karen Khachanov could be running on fumes, as well, so opportunities may await Filip Krajinovic, Yuichi Sugita, and Evgeny Donskoy—who stunned Federer last year in Dubai.

First-round upset alert: (Q) Ernests Gulbis over (2) Lucas Pouille. Should it happen? No. Could it happen? Yes. The best news for Gulbis is that Pouille just played the Marseille final on Sunday will be making an especially quick turnaround because this match has to take place on Tuesday instead of Wednesday since the Dubai schedule includes a Saturday finish. Although the 29-year-old Latvian has fallen off the map at No. 199 in the world, he crushed both Lukas Lacko and Stefano Travaglia in qualifying.

Hot: Grigor Dimitrov, Lucas Pouille, Karen Khachanov, Ilya Ivashka

Cold: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Ernests Gulbis, Yoshihito Nishioka, Andreas Haider-Maurer

Quarterfinal predictions: Grigor Dimitrov over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Richard Gasquet over Joao Sousa, Filip Krajinovic over Evgeny Donskoy, and Jan-Lennard Struff over Karen Khachanov

Semifinals: Dimitrov over Gasquet and Krajinovic over Struff

Final: Dimitrov over Krajinovic

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Brasil Open

Where: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $516,205

Top seed: Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Defending champion: Pablo Cuevas

Draw analysis: Thiem, Schwartzman, and Verdasco are all taking their talents back to hard courts in advance of Indian Wells and Miami. That is disappointing news for Sao Paulo tournament organizers; that is super news for everyone else in the Sao Paulo draw. It may be an especially important development for Cuevas, who is basically to this tournament what Victor Estrella Burgos is to Quito. The 33^rd-ranked Uruguayan is the three-time defending champion and he should have a great chance of making it four straight—and keeping his 250 points—even though is current form is questionable, mainly because the likes of Thiem, Schwartzman, and Verdasco are absent. Cuevas also has a favorable draw, with Fabio Fognini, Leonardo Mayer, and Federico Delbonis perhaps the only danger in the bottom half.

The Brazilian crowd will be entertained by the other side of the bracket, where Thomaz Bellucci, Thiago Monteiro, and Guilherme Clezar are all playing. Monteiro and Clezar have to go head-to-head in round one, with the winner earning a matchup against No. 1 seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Coming off respective Rio collapses against Fognini and Gael Monfils, Bellucci and Horacio Zeballos are set for an all-lefty affair in round one. The winner will meet none other than Monfils for a place in the quarterfinals.

First-round upset alert: Rogerio Dutra Silva over (7) Tennys Sandgren. Sandgren is quite capable on the slow stuff, but he is far from a clay-court specialist like Dutra Silva. Although the Brazilian has been a disaster so far in 2018, he should at least benefit from the home crowd that is never shy in terms getting behind its players.

Hot: Tennys Sandgren, Roberto Carballes Baena, Nicolas Jarry

Cold: Victor Estrella Burgos, Thomaz Bellucci, Carlos Berlocq

Semifinal predictions: Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Nicolas Kicker and Pablo Cuevas over Federico Delbonis

Final: Cuevas over Ramos-Vinolas

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