The dog days (of February) are almost over, but they will go out with a bang. Following an extremely entertaining week in Doha and Rio de Janeiro, we should be in store for more fireworks in Dubai, Acapulco, and Santiago. Among the stars taking the court are Doha champion Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Tommy Paul, Holger Rune, and Ben Shelton.
Let’s break down the upcoming busy week on the ATP Tour.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Where: Dubai, U.A.E.
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $3,237,670
Top seed: Daniil Medvedev
Defending champion: Ugo Humbert
Draw analysis: There will be no rematch of the Doha final in the Dubai quarters after Jack Draper withdrew. That opens up Rublev’s draw, as the Doha champion tries to stay hot in the Middle East. Rublev infamously got defaulted from Dubai last year (against Alexander Bublik in the semifinals) but has otherwise been awesome at this tournament. The third seed is 17-4 lifetime with a title in 2022 and a runner-up effort in 2023. If Rublev still has enough left in the tank, he should sail into the semis for a contest against De Minaur, Arthur Fils, or Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The other side of the bracket is riddled with intriguing first-round matchups. Among them are Ugo Humbert vs. Jiri Lehecka, Matteo Berrettini vs. Gael Monfils, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Lorenzo Sonego, and Karen Khachanov vs. Dan Evans. Khachanov-Evans is a rematch of the longest match in U.S. Open history from last summer, when Evans came back from 4-0 down in the fifth set to prevail 6-7(8), 7-6(2), 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-4 after five hours and 35 minutes. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who could meet Medvedev in round two, is also one to watch this week.
Hot: Andrey Rublev, Ugo Humbert, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Nuno Borges, Zizou Bergs, Jiri Lehecka
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexei Popyrin, Alexander Bublik, Roberto Bautista Agut, Dan Evans, Jan-Lennard Struff
Quarterfinal predictions: Tallon Griekspoor over Daniil Medvedev, Matteo Berrettini over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev over Zizou Bergs, and Alex de Minaur over Felix Auger-Aliassime
Semifinals: Griekspoor over Berrettini and De Minaur over Rublev
Final: De Minaur over Griekspoor
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
Where: Acapulco, Mexico
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,585,410
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Alex de Minaur
Draw analysis: Despite the withdrawal of Taylor Fritz due to an abdominal injury, the Acapulco field is stacked–and its depth is especially impressive. Look no further than the fact that the unseeded contingent includes guys like Jakub Mensik, Denis Shapovalov, Alex Michelsen, Brandon Nakashima, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. If you aren’t in the top 24 of the rankings, you aren’t seeded. Zverev, Ruud, Paul, Rune, Shelton, Lorenzo Musetti, Frances Tiafoe, and Tomas Machac are the seeds.
The top half of the draw is loaded. Zverev opens with Matteo Arnaldi before possibly facing Shapovalov in round two, Machac or Mensik in the quarterfinals, and Rune or Shelton in the semis. Shapovalov captured the Dallas title earlier this month and will try to stay hot against Cameron Norrie in the first round. Ruud probably has the friendliest path at the bottom of the bracket. His projected quarterfinal foe is a struggling Tiafoe and Davidovich Fokina–the Delray Beach runner-up–is the only real notable unseeded floater in that section. Meanwhile, Paul is likely to meet Marcos Giron in the last 16 and Musetti or Michelsen in the quarters.
Hot: Alexander Zverev, Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, Tomas Machac, Alexandre Muller, Miomir Kecmanovic, Denis Shapovalov
Cold: Frances Tiafoe, Flavio Cobolli
Quarterfinal predictions: Jakub Mensik over Denis Shapovalov, Ben Shelton over Holger Rune, Alex Michelsen over Tommy Paul, and Casper Ruud over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Semifinals: Mensik over Shelton and Ruud over Michelsen
Final: Ruud over Mensik
Movistar Open
Where: Santiago, Chile
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $680,140
Top seed: Francisco Cerundolo
Defending champion: Sebastian Baez
Draw analysis: The Golden Swing comes to an end in Santiago, where the draw looks relatively similar to those of Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro aside from the absences of Zverev, Fonseca, and a couple of defectors from South America to Acapulco (including Rio de Janeiro finalist Alexandre Muller). Francisco Cerundolo takes over as the No. 1 seed, a slumping Alejandro Tabilo is No. 2, and 2024 winner Sebastian Baez looks to maintain his stellar form as the No. 3 seed.
It’s not a particularly appealing bracket for the for the raucous Chilean fans. Tabilo and No. 7 seed Nicolas Jarry find themselves in the same section, so at least one of them will be out prior to the semis. Wild card Cristian Garin is in the most difficult quarter of the bracket, as he would probably have to beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry and then Cerundolo just to make the last four. Baez does not have a great draw, either. The Argentine will likely kick off his campaign against Rio semifinalist Francisco Comesana in advance of another all-Argentine showdown with Mariano Navone.
Hot: Sebastian Baez, Francisco Comesana, Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Cold: Alejandro Tabilo, Nicolas Jarry, Cristian Garin, Damir Dzumhir, Thiago Seyboth Wild
Quarterfinal predictions: Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Francisco Cerundolo, Laslo Djere over Luciano Darderi, Mariano Navone over Sebastian Baez, and Nicolas Jarry over Federico Coria
Semifinals: Etcheverry over Djere and Navone over Jarry
Final: Etcheverry over Navone
who ya got?
Rublev, Zv, and Baez
Without looking at the above:
Semis :Ruud over Paul, Shelton over Zverev
Final :Ruud over Shelton
Semifinals: Etcheverry over Djere and Navone over Jarry
Final: Etcheverry over Navone
Semi: Humbert over Berrettini, DeMinaur over Rublev
Final: De Minaur over Humbert
strong picks
On paper they are.