The dog days of February on the ATP Tour are finally coming to an end, but they are going out with a bang. A pair of 500-point tournaments are on this week’s schedule, with Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, Andy Murray, Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, and Stefanos Tsitsipas taking the court. Medvedev, Rublev, and Murray headline the Dubai field along with Hubert Hurkacz and Doha champion Karen Khachanov. Zverev, Rune, and Tsitsipas are joined in Acapulco by Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, and Tommy Paul. Meanwhile, the Golden Swing comes to a close in Santiago.
Let’s break down the upcoming busy week on the ATP Tour.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Where: Dubai, U.A.E.
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,941,785
Top seed: Daniil Medvedev
Defending champion: Daniil Medvedev
Draw analysis: Novak Djokovic is skipping Dubai this year (he has already traveled to the United States with Rafael Nadal in advance of Indian Wells), so the title is relatively up for grabs. Medvedev, who lifted the trophy last season, is the clear favorite on paper—but at the same time the Russian is a bit of a question mark since he has not played since losing the Australian Open final to Jannik Sinner from two sets up. On the bright side for Medvedev, he is in the softest section of the Dubai draw. The world No. 4 will likely roll into the quarterfinals before potentially running into Doha runner-up Jakub Mensik, after which he could meet Hurkacz, Murray, Ugo Humbert, or Gael Monfils in the semis.
Rublev’s possible road to the title match begins with Zhizhen Zhang and would then feature either Lorenzo Musetti or Arthur Cazaux. Adrian Mannarino and Sebastian Korda are potential quarterfinal foes for the second-seeded Russian, while Khachanov, Alexander Bublik, and Tomas Machac also can’t be discounted in the bottom half of the bracket.
Hot: Karen Khachanov, Ugo Humbert, Adrian Mannarino, Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Cazaux, Tomas Machac, Jakub Mensik
Cold: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Botic van de Zandschulp, Lorenzo Sonego, Andy Murray, Denis Shapovalov
Quarterfinal predictions: Daniil Medvedev over Jakub Mensik, Hubert Hurkacz over Ugo Humbert, Tomas Machac over Alexei Popyrin, and Andrey Rublev over Adrian Mannarino
Semifinals: Hurkacz over Medvedev and Rublev over Machac
Final: Rublev over Hurkacz
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Abierto Mexicano Telcel
Where: Acapulco, Mexico
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,206,080
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Alex de Minaur
Draw analysis: Like that of Dubai, the Acapulco field is absolutely loaded. Not only is it top heavy with Zverev, Rune, and De Minaur (just to name a few), but it is also so deep that guys like Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Cameron Norrie, and Los Cabos champ Jordan Thompson are not even seeded. Fritz and Shelton could face each other as early as round two, with the winner possibly squaring off against Ruud in the quarterfinals and Rune in the semis. Rune may first have to get past Thompson in the last 16 and either Norrie or Frances Tiafoe in the quarters.
In the top half of the draw, Paul and Jack Draper will already be going head-to-head for the third time this season. Whoever emerges from that contest will likely face Zverev in the last eight and then either Tsitsipas, De Minaur, Auger-Aliassime, or Roman Safiullin in the semis. Tsitsipas vs. Safiullin is among the handful of first-round matchups to watch.
Hot: Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul, Jordan Thompson, Roman Safiullin, Nuno Borges
Cold: Holger Rune, Frances Tiafoe, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Diego Schwartzman, Miomir Kecmanovic
Quarterfinal predictions: Tommy Paul over Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur over Roman Safiullin, Ben Shelton over Casper Ruud, and Cameron Norrie over Holger Rune
Semifinals: De Minaur over Paul and Shelton over Norrie
Final: De Minaur over Shelton
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Movistar Open
Where: Santiago, Chile
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: $661,585
Top seed: Nicolas Jarry
Defending champion: Nicolas Jarry
Draw analysis: As always, the Golden Swing peaked in Rio de Janeiro—where Carlos Alcaraz was technically in the 500-point field but retired just a few games into his campaign after spraining his ankle against Thiago Monteiro. As expected, this ATP 250 in Santiago marks a sizable step back. Nicolas Jarry is the top seed and highest-ranked player in the draw at No. 19. Jaume Munar is seeded despite being ranked 73rd, which—if the entry deadlines were right now—would not even get him into the main draws of Dubai and Acapulco.
Winners on the South American clay-court grind so far are Luciano Darderi (Cordoba), Facundo Diaz Acosta (Buenos Aires), and Sebastian Baez (Rio de Janeiro). All three now find themselves in Santiago, where Baez’s opening contest of the week could be a rematch of the Rio final against Mariano Navone (Baez rolled 6-2, 6-1). Both Darderi and Diaz Acosta own favorable draws, with the former on course to play Alejandro Tabilo in the quarterfinals and Diaz Acosta possibly encountering Arthur Fils at that stage. As for Chile’s own Jarry, the fans will be raucous for him in hopes of seeing a successful title defense. Jarry potentially awaits Federico Coria in round two; Rio quarterfinalist Joao Fonseca, 17, is a possible quarterfinal foe for Jarry.
Hot: Sebastian Baez, Facundo Diaz Acosta, Mariona Navone, Luciano Darderi, Joao Fonseca
Cold: Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Pedro Cachin, Cristian Garin
Quarterfinal predictions: Nicolas Jarry over Joao Fonseca, Luciano Darderi over Alejandro Tabilo, Facundo Diaz Acosta over Arthur Fils, and Jaume Munar over Sebastian Baez
Semifinals: Jarry over Darderi and Diaz Acosta over Munar
Final: Jarry over Diaz Acosta
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