Doha SF previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Monfils, Rublev vs. Pella

Dominic Thiem is the last remaining seed in Doha, but he has a tough opponent on the other side of the net for Friday’s semifinals in the form of Gael Monfils. A more surprising matchup with a berth in the title match at stake pits Andrey Rublev against Guido Pella.

(1) Dominic Thiem vs. (WC) Gael Monfils

Thiem and Monfils will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Friday night. All three of their previous encounters have gone Thiem’s way; 1-6, 6-3, 6-1 on the clay courts of Umag in 2015, 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 at the 2016 World Tour Finals, and 6-3, 6-2 last spring in Indian Wells. Hard courts have never been the Austrian’s favorite, so those two recent hard-court victories over Monfils bode especially well for his prospects in this one. So do his three Doha matches up to this point, as Thiem did not drop a single set in defeats of Evgeny Donskoy, Aljaz Bedene, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Monfils had not played since the U.S. Open due to his never-ending physical problems, so simply reaching the semifinals is a relative success to begin his 2018 campaign. The 46th-ranked Frenchman advanced to the last four by beating Paolo Lorenzi, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Peter Gojowycz. Monfils appeared to be on course for his third consecutive three-setter of the week on Thursday, but he saved a set point in amazing fashion and held off Gojowycz 6-3, 7-6(6). A considerable increase in competition level will likely see the end of Monfils’ stay in Doha, as Thiem is looking surprisingly comfortable in these conditions.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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Guido Pella vs. Andrey Rublev

Speaking of surprises, it will be an all-unseeded affair when Rublev and Pella square off for the first time in their careers. That being said, Rublev’s appearance in the semis is somewhat more expected than that of his opponent because the 20-year-old really took off in 2017. Rublev reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals last summer and that is a big reason why he is a virtual lock for Australian Open seeding (he will officially clinch if he wins on Friday). The Russian has advanced in Doha with defeats of Cedrik-Marcel Stebe (via retirement), Fernando Verdasco (three sets), and Borna Coric (6-3, 7-5).

Pella failed to win a main-draw match at any of his last three tournaments in 2017, but he is off to a strong start this season. The 64th-ranked Argentine punched his ticket to the semis by taking out Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Stefano Travaglia, and Mirza Basic. Needless to say, that constitutes just about an ideal draw for Pella. Facing Rublev as deep as the semifinals is not a bad draw, either, but the youngster has far more firepower and should be able to keep his hot streak going into his second career ATP title match.

Pick: Rublev in 2

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