Doha SF previews and predictions: Rublev vs. Bautista Agut, Fritz vs. Basilashvili

There will be no Roger Federer in Saturday’s semifinal lineup in Doha. Instead, an all-unseeded affair pits Taylor Fritz against Nikoloz Basilashvili. The two seeds remaining are Andrey Rublev and Roberto Bautista Agut.

(5) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (3) Andrey Rublev

In one of the more bizarre occurrences in recent memory, Rublev is in the semifinals of a tournament without having played a single match. That’s right; the red-hot Russian earned a first-round bye as the No. 3 seed at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open and then got walkovers from both Richard Gasquet and Marton Fucsovics. It could not have come at a better time, too, because Rublev would have been making a quick turnaround after capturing the Rotterdam title this past weekend.

Up first for the world No. 8 on Friday is Bautista Agut, with the head-to-head series all tied up at two wins apiece. They most recently faced each other last fall in Hamburg, where Rublev rolled 6-2, 7-5. Bautista Agut gets a shot at revenge thanks to Doha victories over Reilly Opelka, Alexander Bublik, and Dominic Thiem. Although rest may have turned into a bit of rust for Rublev, he has gotten used to the Doha conditions with a run to the doubles final (with Aslan Karatsev) and Bautista Agut spent two hours and 25 minutes on the court against Thiem.

Pick: Rublev in 3

Taylor Fritz vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili

From completely out of nowhere, Basilashvili finds himself in the semifinals of an ATP tournament. The struggling Georgian did it by beating Roger Federer 3-6, 6-1, 7-5 on Thursday evening, ending the comeback tournament for the 39-year-old Swiss. Basilashvili, who had not defeated anyone in the top 250 in more than 12 months prior to this week, preceded that quarterfinal result against Federer by ousting John Millman and Malek Jaziri.

Fritz awaits on Friday, and the American won their only previous meeting 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 at the 2017 Chengdu event. It has been an outstanding week in Doha for Fritz, who punched his ticket to the last four by beating Lorenzo Sonego, David Goffin, and Denis Shapovalov. Against Goffin the world No. 33 saved three match points and his victory over Shapovalov avenged a heartbreaking five-set loss at the 2020 U.S. Open. It is a safe bet that Basilashvili’s Doha results are an aberration as opposed to the rule, whereas Fritz has a much better chance of sustaining this kind of success.

Pick: Fritz in 2