Doha SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gojowczyk, Mayer vs. Monfils

Rafael Nadal is one win away from the Doha final, with unheralded qualifier Peter Gojowczyk standing in his way on Friday. The winner will go up against either Florian Mayer or Gael Monfils for the title.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (Q) Peter Gojowczyk

Surprisingly, only one seeded player made it through to the semifinals of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. To the surprise of nobody, that seed is Nadal. The world No. 1 booked his spot in the last four with victories over Lukas Rosol, Tobias Kamke (in three sets), and Ernests Gulbis. Nadal is off to a solid 3-0 start in 2014 after compiling a 75-7 record last season.

Up next for Nadal in Doha is a first-ever meeting with Gojowczyk. The 162nd-ranked German is already in the midst of his best week as a professional. At 24 years old, Gojowczyk qualified for the main draw then advanced with defeats of Dominic Thiem, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Dustin Brown (in a third-set tiebreaker). His first ATP semifinal against one of the best players ever will undoubtedly present far too big of an occasion for the underdog.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 4-5 games

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Florian Mayer vs. Gael Monfils

Mayer and Monfils will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers on Friday. Monfils has won all four of their previous encounters, but they have never faced each other on hard courts. Their most recent clash came last year on the clay of Stuttgart, where Monfils cruised 6-3, 6-0.

The 31st-ranked Frenchman, armed with a rare clean bill of health, has not dropped a single set in Doha while taking out Santiago Giraldo, Richard Gasquet, and Daniel Brands. Mayer moved into the semis with scalps of Michal Przysiezny, Andy Murray, and Victor Hanescu. The 40th-ranked German struggled for much of the 2013 campaign and he is on the outside looking in on an Australian Open seed. Based on both current form and past history in this matchup, Monfils has to like his chances of setting up a likely final showdown against Nadal.

Pick: Monfils in 2

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60 Comments on Doha SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Gojowczyk, Mayer vs. Monfils

  1. I agree with Ricky’s picks. With a guy like this Gojowczyk, it could go either way. He might be overwhelmed by the occasion and bumping up against Rafa will be the ultimate reality check. On the other hand, with nothing to lose and no pressure he might come out swinging for the fences and make it a little interesting.

    I believe that Rafa’s three matches have helped him raise his level of play, especially against Gulbis. If he continues the way he played in that match, then this should be over in fairly short order. I went for Rafa winning in two, losing 6-7 games. I debated between 4-5 and 6-7. However, I won’t be surprised if it does turn out to be 4-5 games lost by Rafa.

    I also agree with Monfils in straight sets. I didn’t get to see his match against Gasquet, but it was a pretty routine straight set win. Monfils seems to be getting back some of that ggreat form. The other seeds may be out, but Monfils is a former top ten player. He’s a quality player who can be dangerous when he’s on his game.

    I expect to see Rafa and Monfils in the final.

    • @nadline
      I’ve really enjoyed your reports and pics. what a tennis treat for you! Like me at Queens last year. There’s nothing like “live” tennis 🙂

      • that reminds me, if any of you are planning to go to any tournaments, let me know in advance and I will try to get you a pass, like I did for nadline in Abu Dhabi.

  2. If anyone is wondering why there are empty seats, it’s because the website showed the tournament as sold out weeks ago when they were not. I met loads of people living in Doha who turned up on the off chance of buying tickets at the gates and were surprised to see tickets still available when they said weeks ago they were sold out. I guess a lot of people who couldn’t get tickets online didn’t bother to go to the stadium on spec.

    All the tickets were sold online, first of all, the website wasn’t up and running on the 28th of November as promised then when it eventually worked, you had to have javascript to view the seating plan, You have to select your tickets on the sitting plan. They had the old version of javascript so anyone with the updated version could not load it. Trying to talk to anyone on the phone about problems is almost impossible.

    By the looks of it, they cannot organize a welk stall. How on earth are they going to organize the World Cup. I hope they have not bitten off more than they chew. Maybe I’m spoilt with the standards in the UAE, especially Dubai where I’m staying with my daughter. Dubai is another word for opulence.

    The expatriates here that I spoke to yesterday think it’s laughable that they were awarded the World Cup.

  3. nadline: Thanks for the explanation. I was wondering why there were so many empty seats at Rafa’s match. Now we all know why.

  4. I also wondered why there were so many empty seats, considering Rafa’s popularity. A lot of people missed out on a chance to see him in the flesh.

  5. Peter Gojowczyk asked Rafa for his autograph in the locker room during the USO last year. Must be a dream come true to play against him. I hope Peter knows his place.

  6. Rafa remembers an unknown teenager who took down a world no. 1 in his prime. So I am sure Rafa is wary of all unknowns when he plays them for the first time. Peter is unlikely to be a potential legend as he is already 24 years old. But he is definitely playing his best as 24 is a player’s peak.
    Rafa is still finding his form especially on the backhand side.
    Expect Rafa to win but first set might be competitive.
    If this court is fast, Monfils will be a real threat as he thrives on fast courts. He beat a Federer in top form in 2010 at the Paris Masters which was made exceptionally fast for the Maestro. Fed learnt his lesson then and his minions in the ATP never made a court that fast again.

  7. pheww…now that was something all of us were expecting! good set from rafa…he just started adding a little more to his shots… the average speed of his groundies in set 2 was around 117 kph (shown around the scoreline of 5-1) .an improvement from 110 kph in set 1 !

    I hope rafa gets a break early in set 3..these Oz open tune up events have never been lucky for him so I hope he storms his way to the title this year

  8. was watching Rafa Gulbis highlights..Rafa was running a fever and was under the weather the commentator said..true? He had a virus and fever in Doha in 2011 too (:-

  9. haha yeah at last..some inconsistencies, dips in concentration and intensity..and a little room for improvement on some aspects… But ,I am really liking the way rafa is playing !

    all aspects of his game showed brilliance… he is building confidence with every win !

    Rafa is hitting that serve to a right-handed player’s forehand on he duece court soo well ! If he can do this consistently, it will make his service games much more effective

  10. I read last year that rafa has made some technical alteration to his backhand so as to save his left knee (rafa said this himself). I did not play much attention to it last year but today I was trying to observe .and i DID notice the shifting of the weight of shot is a little different now ! I wud like to carefully watch his match again to confirm but I did feel it…on a lot of his backhands, rafa shifts the weigh of shot more on his right knee rather than his left (hurt) knee..

    How the hell is he managing such a transition?? :S Anyone else aware of this modificaion? may be he is able to do that on some of the backhands depending on the position he is in :S

    • Yes vamosrafa noticed it too..the motion of hitting the backhand is a bit different..and he is hitting many winners off that wing..flattening it a lot too..not looping

  11. That was quite a match. These guys coming in and making life difficult for Rafa must be watching Novak training videos on “how to beat Nadal.” In the first set especially, Gojo was taking the ball incredibly early and hitting a lot of flat shots, both on the forehand and backhand, some of them barely clearing the net. The shots were also deep. This, in turn, didn’t give Rafa time to hit the shots that he wanted and forced him to play defensively. It was a master game plan and in the first set, Gojo executed it almost flawlessly. Rafa’s own performance was sub-par in the 1st set, although some of that was due to the exquisite play by Gojo. In the 2nd and 3rd sets, Rafa stepped it up and predictably, Gojo’s level fell, although he was still playing well. Rafa’s FDTL improved as the match went on, a shot that Rafa must make when playing someone who’s using the Novak backhand techniques. As a fan, the good I’ll try and take from this is that it gave Rafa more practice in preparation for the AO.

  12. I woke up to see if Rafa was playing and set my recording. Then I watched a little bit and saw that Gojo was up a break. I tried to go back to sleep, but eventually gave up and decided to watch the match. Just in time to see Rafa lose the first set!

    I said in my prediction that it could go one of two ways – that Gojo would be overwhelmed and intimidated and go down meekly or that he would come out without pressure and play fearless tennis. As we saw, it was the second scenario. I will have to go back now and watch the match from the beginning.

    I thought Rafa might just blow Gojo off the court in the third set, but he was broken back. Rafa is still making too many UE’s, which I guess is to be expected at this point in time. I am going to look at his motion when he hits the backhand to see if he has changed the way he is hitting that shot.

    I do think Rafa served intelligently. This guy Gojo just kept on blasting and forced Rafa to raise his level of play. There have been no easy matches for Rafa this week. I saw some misses from Rafa with the dtl backhand. But that dtl forehand was the weapon that did the damage, especially as the match wore on.

    The final is not going to be a cakewalk either. I am watching Monfils now and he seems to be playing very well. He’s dominating in the first set. All in all, this has been a great opportunity for Rafa to get valuable match play and even a chance at a title. He will now know what he must work on in preparation for the AO.

  13. If Monfils does make it into the finals, it’s not comforting to know that in Rafa’s 8-2 lead in their H2H, the only 2 times that Gael has beaten Rafa were in Doha.

  14. After seeing Monfils pretty much dominate Mayer for an easy win, I predict a tough final for Rafa. I didn’t know that Monfils beat Rafa two times in Doha, for his only two wins against him. So that could give him a psychological advantage. Monfils seems to be in really good form and on his way to getting back in the top 20 and even the top 10 again.

    Rafa will have to come out and play some great tennis to get the win. I would love to see him finally win this title and start the new year off right!

  15. vamosrafa,
    Rafa mentioned exactly that in an interview back then. That he had practiced and made adjustments to his backhand so that more of his weight would be on his right leg (and therefore knee), to save his left knee.
    You must be right that this is not an easy adjustment to make. But then Rafa has made a number of important adjustments that for the average player would be very hard to make after many years of a previous pattern – it seems that for him they are not as difficult, perhaps because of his mental abilities and his world class coordination.

    • thanks for responding chloro… I am still amazed ! wilander took that interview from rafa last year and even he could not absorb/understand how rafa is managing it…its a big tactical adjustment…the fact that rafa has won 2 slams after this change shows he is already comfortable with it..genius !

      Rafa is also employing the backhand slice more than ever… its obvious that he is making every effort to prolong his career! watch out haters, rafa aint going anywhere !

  16. Love all the detailed and informed previous comments about Rafa’s new backhand and how it puts less pressure on his left knee….and he’s still finding a way to win. Monfils match will be a battle but I’ll take Rafa.

  17. We know how dangerous Monfils can be. The problem is he will concentrate on moving Rafa around the court as much as possible so it will be a balancing act how much he (Rafa) is prepared to risk pre-AO. The days of running down every shot no matter what are over. He would dearly love to win this title but I’m guessing he will play safe and rely on forcing errors from Monfils.

    Rafa in 3 hopefully entertaining sets.

  18. I watched my recording of Rafa’s semifinal match again and made a point to watch how he was hitting his backhand as much as possible. I did a lot of rewinding! But after looking at it many times, I could see a difference. He is not pushing off on that left leg the way that he used to do. I can see that he is shifting the weight to his right leg now. I didn’t notice it last year, but then I never took the time to study his movement when he hits his backhand.

    I did have to make an effort to look for it, but the change is definitely there. I found it quite extraordinary. I can’t imagine that it’s easy to change the way you hit a groundstroke when you have been doing it for years.

    Rafa just continues to amaze with his dedication and willingness to make adjustments to not only better his game, but to protect that knee.

    • exactly NNY.. It is unbelievable ! I also watched his match again and now I am certain..the technique has changed…what brilliance from rafa..nobody can adapt like him

      • vamosrafa,

        Thanks to you for pointing it out to us! That’s why I watched and made sure to look for it. It’s a fascinating find!

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