February may not be much of a headline-grabber on the ATP Tour (especially not for casual fans who only tune into the biggest events), but in reality is one of the more fun months on the annual calendar. Many of the entry lists are at the very least underrated and at the best amazing, and this coming week is no exception. Among the players in action around the world in Doha, Marseille, and Rio de Janeiro are Andrey Rublev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, Andy Murray, Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner, and Carlos Alcaraz.
Qatar ExxonMobil Open
Where: Doha, Qatar
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $1,377,025
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
Defending champion: Roberto Bautista Agut
Draw analysis: Doha used to be a season-opening event, but that all changed when the Covid-19 pandemic started rearranging tennis schedules in 2020. A move to the middle of February resulted in some unusually uninspiring player fields, but this event is back on the upswing in 2023. Rublev, Auger-Aliassime, Medvedev (who just won Rotterdam), and Murray are joined in a packed draw by the likes of Alexander Zverev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Jack Draper, Jiri Lehecka, and Emil Ruusuvuori.
Although Murray’s draw is not the easiest, he appears to have an opening to make a run. First-round opponent Lorenzo Sonego hasn’t been in great form and Zverev’s comeback is off to a slow start. The other seed in Murray’s quarter is Botic van de Zandschulp, who has also been far from his best of late. Elsewhere to the top half, Rublev could be tested by Rotterdam semifinalist Tallon Griekspoor in the second round and by Ruusuvuori, Lehecka, or Dan Evans in the quarters. At the bottom of the bracket, familiar foes Auger-Aliassime and Medvedev are on a collision course for the semis.
Quarterfinal predictions: Jiri Lehecka over Andrey Rublev, Andy Murray over Jack Draper, Daniil Medvedev over Roberto Bautista Agut, and Felix Auger-Aliassime over Soonwoo Kwon
Semifinals: Lehecka over Murray and Medvedev over Auger-Aliassime
Final: Medvedev over Lehecka
Open 13
Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 707,510 Euros
Top seed: Hubert Hurkacz
2022 champion: Andrey Rublev (not playing)
Draw analysis: Rematches could be the story in Marseille. Sinner vs. Arthur Fils, Alexander Bublik vs. Gregoire Barrere, David Goffin vs. Mikael Ymer, and Stan Wawrinka vs. Richard Gasquet are potential second-round matchups. Sinner beat Fils in the Montpellier semifinals, Barrere was the opponent when Bublik recently destroyed three rackets, Goffin triumphed over Ymer in a Challenger final in late January, and Wawrinka defeated Gasquet in the Rotterdam second round. Hurkacz and Grigor Dimitrov are on a collision course for the semis after they also squared off in Rotterdam (the Bulgarian won in two tiebreakers). Alex de Minaur vs. Maxime Cressy in the quarterfinals would be a replay of their Rotterdam showdown that De Minaur won in three sets.
Overall, it appears to be a favorable draw for everyone on the top half—away from Sinner, De Minaur, and Cressy. With Sinner surely fatigued on the heels of so much winning this month (champion in Montpellier and runner-up in Rotterdam), whoever prevails in the potential De Minaur vs. Cressy rematch would definitely have realistic final and title aspirations. Dimitrov should have a relatively clear path to at least the semifinals and there is no reason why he couldn’t upset Hurkacz for the second time in as many weeks.
Quarterfinal predictions: Hubert Hurkacz over Mikael Ymer, Grigor Dimitrov over Marc-Andrea Huesler, Alex de Minaur over Maxime Cressy, and Stan Wawrinka over Arthur Fils
Semifinals: Dimitrov over Hurkacz and De Minaur over Wawrinka
Final: De Minaur over Dimitrov
Rio Open
Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,013,940
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Draw analysis: Alcaraz returned from a leg injury that forced him to miss the first month of 2021 and upon his return he promptly rolled to the Buenos Aires title. What will he do for an encore in Rio de Janeiro? Although the Golden Swing has ramped up to the 500-point level with this tournament, the field is basically the exact same as that of Buenos Aires. In other words, Alcaraz remains a massive favorite. With Diego Schwartzman his nearest seed, the 19-year-old Spaniard should have a cakewalk into the semifinals given the enormity of Schwartzman’s current slump. Lorenzo Musetti vs. Sebastian Baez would be an intriguing semifinal matchup in the top half of the bracket, although Baez could run into Buenos Aires semifinalist Juan Pablo Varillas in round two.
There are probably four realistic final contenders in the bottom half. Dominic Thiem has to be considered a longshot based on his current struggles, but you never know when he is going to start heating up. Clay certainly gives him an opportunity. Norrie vs. Thiem could happen in the Rio second round, with the winner likely on course to meet either Francisco Cerundolo or Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the semis. Cerundolo’s Golden Swing has been hampered a bit by a minor hamstring injury and Ramos-Vinolas has always thrived this time of year, so the veteran lefty could be in line for a successful week.
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Laslo Djere, Sebastian Baez over Lorenzo Musetti, Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Francisco Cerundolo, and Cameron Norrie over Hugo Dellien
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Baez and Norrie over Ramos-Vinolas
Final: Alcaraz over Ramos-Vinolas
who ya got?
Hedging your bets, Ricky? 😉
Margot Andy is fighting hard to win this first-round match v Lorenzo Sonego. It is 7-4 Murray in the decider.
Wow, Andy Murray wins!
He will play Zverev next. I picked him to win three matches, but if he keeps fighting like he did today, I didn’t pick him far enough.
I have Andy beating Zverev then losing to Draper. I’ve got Med, Al and the Daemon as my picks and Kasastina in WTA.
Error! Make that Sabalenka and Zhu!
I would have picked Stephens to win and maybe Zhu as runner-up. But I did not realize there was another WTA bracket for this week.
Sabalenka is probably the winner. But I wouldn’t say I like Iga losing to her. Rybakina could knock Iga out, and Iga losing will sting no matter what. I get over things like that, but I admit that in the absence of Halep…oh, I forget Kvitova is in Dubai. Petra Kvitova winning would be a pleasant surprise.
Sabalenka is the most likely to win in Dubai.
I give up picking Kasatkina and Garcia.
ATP – I picked Meddie, Sinner, and King Carlos.
It’s called damage limitation.
The golden swing never had any pattern to it.
Maybe I should just say the February swing ☺️
Med in Doha; Dtrov in Marseille; Carlos repeats in Rio.