Doha final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Monfils

January 4, 2014 Ricky Match previews 117

Rafael Nadal is one win away from kicking off his 2014 campaign with another hard-court title, this one in Doha. A final roadblock on Saturday comes in the form of a red-hot Gael Monfils. Hasan Murad previews the action.

Heading into Saturday’s Qatar ExxonMobil Open final against Rafael Nadal, Gael Monfils is not likely lacking self-belief despite an inauspicious record of 2-8 in the head-to-head series. The simple reason is that both of Monfils’ wins over Nadal have come in this very tournament; one at the quarterfinal stage in 2009 and the other in the 2012 semis.

On top of this, the Frenchman is currently playing exquisitely well. His route to the final includes a resounding dismissal of defending Doha champion and countryman Richard Gasquet in the second round. Monfils showed even greater urgency in his comprehensive semifinal victory over Florian Mayer. Dominating his service games and winning exactly 50 percent of return points, the world No. 31 wrapped up the encounter 6-3, 6-2 in just 55 minutes.

In stark contrast, Nadal’s road to the final has been thorny. All of his matches have been competitive and the Spaniard has been struggling to consistently play at his best. Plagued by uncharacteristic errors in his groundstrokes, the top seed dropped his second set of the tournament in Friday’s semifinal against an inspired underdog, Peter Gojowczy. Still, Nadal ended the match on a positive note, finishing it 4-6, 6-2, 6-3. Following an even slower start to the week, Nadal has been building confidence with every victory and his ability to raise his level in key moments–arguably his biggest strength–has been with him all week.

Looking at the bigger picture, though, reveals totally different dynamics. Nadal has reached a 15th final in his last 18 tournaments and he is looking to capture a staggering 61st career ATP title. Conversely, Monfils will be attempting to hoist a fifth career winner’s trophy in his 16th final.

From a matchup perspective, Monfils undoubtedly has the nimbleness and firepower to trouble Nadal, especially if the favorite is still finding his form. As well as Monfils is playing, however, it will be tremendously difficult to counter Nadal’s ruthlessness and tactical acumen. Hence, despite the onerous challenge awaiting him, the 13-time Grand Slam champion should find a way to win his first title of the year.

Murad pick: Nadal in 2

Dimon pick: Nadal in 3

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117 Comments on Doha final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Monfils

  1. Somehow Rafa is better off playing the established guys like Monfils than someone who has nothing to lose. I was very surprised at the Gojo who turned up yesterday, compared to the one who played against Dustin Brown. Judging by his standards in the SF, I thought Rafa would wipe the floor with him, but he came out all guns blazing and I think he took Rafa by surprise. As Rafa said in his on-court interview after the match, experience told him that Gojo could not keep up that standard throughout the whole match.

    As for Monfils, he didn’t look too spectacular against Mayer court side, Mayer just wasn’t that good yesterday. I know that Monfils can move up a gear but I hope Rafa will give up the defensive game and attack more. He got caught out a few times whilst he was working the point when his opponent went for the kill.

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  2. So far I haven’t got any interesting photos to bring you, unless you want more and more of Rafa practising more and more serves, backhands and forehands. He practices on CC so there is a good opportunity to take many pictures of anything unusual, but he tries not to take any notice of the spectators because he is working on his shots so he doesn’t look up at all, even when they shout the usual ‘Vamos Rafa’ and ‘I love you, Rafa’.

    Coming back from the bathroom after Rafa’s SF yesterday,I saw a crowd around my entrance with barriers and loads of security guards, so I asked what was going on and they said Rafa was coming through after his match. The Monfils/Mayer match started and people had left their seats to come and see Rafa. There were cameras on the ready, programmes, tickets and all sorts, all hoping for his autograph. But the commotion was too much so they put him in a golf car surrounded by security guards and drove him away. He just sat there smiling and waving to us. I could have had a good picture then, but I didn’t have my camera with me.

    Now that I know, I will have my camera on the ready after his match today.

    It must be soul destroying for the other players because the crowd is 99% behind Rafa. When the players are announced before the match, his opponents get a warm applause but Rafa gets a standing ovation. Monfils is very popular too so he will have a lot of support I’m sure.

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  3. If I have to be honest, Rafa is not in his free wheeling form just yet, but he has time to work on it before the AO. All the players want a piece of Rafa, I think it gives them some kind of respect in the locker room It’s Rafa they want to beat, not so much any of the other 3. It was Federer once but I think that’s lost it’s shine a bit, although beating Djoko, Federer or Murray is still satisfying.

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    • It’s like a football team at the end of a regular season. They don’t want to show their full deck of cards until the playoffs (in tennis sense the Australian Open).

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  4. I am encouraged by the fact that Monfils beat Rafa here in 2009, Rafa’s annus horribilis, when physically and emotionally, things were not well with him. In 2012, Monfils was in blistering form so he won that one fair and square. Rafa will know why he lost those two times so he’ll work his way through it.,

    Yesterday, I had my ‘Wot A Shot’ banner, but didn’t get to use it much, I hope I’ll be using it a lot today.

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  5. I think this match could go three sets. I have been going back and forth between two sets and three sets, but I think that Monfils is playing well enough to give Rafa a challenge. I also think that Rafa will come out and play better than he did against Gojo.

    On this BEIN Sports channel that is broadcasting Doha, they had another interview with Rafa after the match. Someone got a hold of him and was able to ask him about his thoughts on the match. He freely admitted that he didn’t play his best. He also gave Gojo credit for playing well, but he did say that it’s one thing to play well for a set but another to play well over two or three sets. Gojo was not able to do that. At least, not well enough to beat Rafa. Rafa knows that Monfils is playing well and should know what to do.

    I do think Rafa will remember those two previous losses and want to make sure that it doesn’t happen a third time. I would love to see him get this win as a great way to start his 2014 tennis year. I think it would be very satisfying for him, since he has never won this title.

    With an early start time, I have my dvr set to record the match. Maybe I will wake up early enough to see some of it live. It should be a good one.

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  6. yup, this one could easily go to three sets.. I jus feel rafa will be very much prepared and will know how to approach the match…..just the way it was against Gulbis… a 3-setter is a very good possibility though

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  7. Hello is anyone watching the Rafa-Monfils match? Rafa is up 4-0. I am just seeing the scoreline, not watching the match. If anyone is watching pl let me know whether Monfils if playing badly or Rafa has raised his level.

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  16. i would have done the same for every game HAD my internet connection not been messing around :@ no live stream working well for me, which is strange because the connection speed is okay

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  27. rafa won a 28-shot rally by drawing an error off monfil’s backhand…15-0

    BIG serve from monfils 15-15

    excellent backhand return set up a big forehand for rafa..unleashes it inside in ..15-30

    poor forehand from gael – 15-40.. a perfect forehadn DTL frm gael 30-40 and a POOR backhand miss from rafa for duece..gael seals the game via great serving

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  28. forehand into the net 0-15… rafa comes to the net at the back of a fine cross court forehand but gael hits a perfect backhand pass CC 0-30 !!

    Rafa wins a rally of hugee hitting for 15-30 and now his forehand too strong…40-30…

    Awesome backhand DTL from gael …finishes the point with his forehand…duece !

    super serve from rafa- ad in !

    a solid 1-2 combo (serve-forehand) wins the game for rafa !

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  31. wild forehands from Gael ! he hit a scorching forehand winner for 15-0 but missed two reckless forehands in the game… silly !

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  34. damn..great anticipation and foot speed..from gael..chased a drop volley …0-40

    great serve 15-40 …monfils thumping forehands , comes to the net and BOOM ! vintange rafa backhand pass, cross court !… a 2nd serve missed return elicits a vivid VAMOS from rafa !

    argh, bad miss from rafa :/ brk pnt again

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  36. Rafa flirting with the lines ! a well-struck backhand DTL allowed him to finish the point with an overhead…duece

    controversy ! a nadal forehand on the baseline looked out..monfils returned the ball and rafa finished with a cross court forehand winner ! monfils argued with the umpire to let him challenge but it was too late for that…

    GAME RAFA ! phewww

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  38. Monfils really flattening out his ground strokes. As a result,missing some important shots.. rafa doing a good job of keeping decent length on his shots

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  39. WOWW ! both players were KILLING the ball ! rafa draws an error by virtue of a hard-struck backhand DTL….

    match point !

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  41. monfil’s CC forehand sails long! woohoo 😀 rafa has a broad smile on his face 🙂 🙂

    anyway,the quality of the 3rd set was not good ! I was able to watch the match from 6-5 onward in set 2…

    Rafa was far frm his best and mentally, he was really good all match !

    FOR THE FIRST TIME, rafa wins a title before Oz open ! bring it onnn !

    Lead over djokovic is now 1020 ! haha

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  42. ridiculous serving stats from rafael nadal ! 76% first serves in, 73% 1st serves won, 85% 2nd serves won !!

    20 winners ,21 UE for rafa…36 winners ,48 UE for Monf

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  43. Well done Rafa, job well done! 250 points in the bank…….

    Rafa spent valuable time on court building up confidence, fine-tuning his game. I think playing Doha rather than Brisbane was a good move because of the depth of the Doha field, which gave Rafa quality workouts. Brisbane would have assured him of a title, not a work-out. Doha gave him both.

    On to Oz!

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      • Why so obvious for year end No 1. I bet Rafa will have a lot to say in that right?

        He was favoured last year too, what eventually happened?

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    • Too much importance is being given to post USO swing of 2013. Even though djokovic’s response after USO was flawless and he was way ahead of the field,but beating rafa on a low bouncing hard court in beijing and then indoors does not suggest THAT much.

      Federer beat rafa 6-3 6-0 indoors in 2011 and then got beaten comprehensively in Australian open SF 2012!! Djokovic is not federer but Nadal in this part of the season is also not the nadal who appeared post USO.

      I will only say djokovic is the favourite to end YE no.1 if he wins Oz open.

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      • Some of the rallies in the highlights are breathtaking and pulsating

        The match seems to have been played at a very fast pace..not sure if its because of the fast court.

        Rafaelo- Hope you enjoyed the highlights?

        BTW hope balls to be used in Melbourne were used in Doha too? Anyone can confirm this?

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  48. Rafa has got better and better in all the matches I’ve seen in AD and Doha. Monfils had to pull out all the stops and still finished second best. Monfils’ serve was his weapon today and Rafa was able to find a way to dominate. The first set was all Rafa, Monfils was a bit lost, Rafa lost the 2nd set due to his own fault. He seemed to turn the gas down with winning the first set so easily, but he showed who is boss in the final set.

    Monfils was still on the practice courts 15 minuted before the match started and Rafa finished his practice at 4.15pm. The match started at 6 pm. Well the players came on court at 6 PM..

    As for speculation about who will do what and when, it’s all a bit of fun and a waste of time, really. Rafa says he doesn’t care whether he’s favoured or not.

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  49. I am so frustrated because I set my recording but didn’t allow any extra time. For some reason this BEIN sports channel came on at 6:00 am my time even though the match didn’t start until 7:00 am. So there was an hour of talk and previews. I knew if the match went three sets I wouldn’t see all of it. After Rafa lost the second set tb, I had to go online to check the score.

    I was so happy to see that Rafa won! My recording cut out with Rafa up a break 3-1 in the third set but down in his service game 15-40. I was surprised to see that Rafa won this set so easily. It didn’t look that way when my recording stopped. They will replay the match later on at 7:00 pm, so I can see the rest of it then.

    I thought it was too easy in that first set. Monfils woke up in the second set and really started playing better. Rafa broke back but couldn’t get it done in the tb. I thought Rafa really did step it up in this final. He played much better than in the semi. I think he really wanted this title.

    The best thing for Rafa is winning. He hasn’t won a title since the USO, so this had to feel good. To win in his first tournament of the new tennis year is a great start. Rafa is such a confidence player and winning in Doha, where he has never won before, will give him good feelings as he gets ready for the AO.

    Rafa got some great match play and had the chance to work on all aspects of his game. Now he will know what he has to work on and has time to practice.

    I don’t care if Djoker is the betting favorite to end the year at #1. For now Rafa is #1 and has just added 250 points between himself and Djoker. He can only gain points at the AO. So for now he is sitting pretty. If Rafa is healthy and plays well, that’s all I care about. The rest will all sort itself out.

    Congratulations, Rafa! Well done!

    Oh and congratulations to me for picking Rafa to win in three sets! 🙂

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  54. Though it is great that Rafa won in Doha, I think the good thing to come out of it was that he got good match play and an opportunity to finetune his shots. He did not exactly beat a top player on the way (yes the deoth was good with Murray, Ferrer, Berdy, Tsonga all opting to play here but none reached later rounds) , so let us not get too excited either. Having said this, does not mean he cannot either, he absolutely can on any day anytime.

    BTW any news on the court and ball difference between Doha and AO? Were they identical?

    From what I saw in highlights, Doha played fast too, the speed of balls from the racquet was brisk with great velocity.

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    • The AO tournament Director has confirmed that the court speed is unchanged from 2013. Not Rafa’s fault he did not get to play Tsonga, Muzza, Ferru, Berdy in the tournament, they were not good enough to advance during the tournament. This was a tune-up tournament for Rafa, as it was for the others, so not concerned about who he beat, just the amount of time he spent on court.

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  55. It doesn’t matter that Rafa didn’t beat a top player at Doha. It’s not his fault that the other seeds lost. You can only play the ones who get through the draw. I also think that Rafa having to face Gulbis was a good test. Gulbis always gives Rafa tough matches and any time he can beat him in straight sets, that’s a good thing!

    The players that Rafa did meet came out and gave it their all. They played better than their ranking. They were aggressive, taking the ball early and blasting big shots all over the place. Rafa got valuable match play in this tournament that helped him to raise his level of play and get some rhythm and timing going on his groundstrokes. This will stand him in good stead as he practices in preparation for the AO.

    I am not getting too excited or carried away. But I do know that starting the new year with a win at a tournament that Rafa hasn’t ever won, will give him confidence and good feelings.

    What I take away from watching Rafa in this tournament, is his aggressive play moving into the net to close out points quickly and his movement on the court. Rafa may have played a bit defensively in some matches, but overall he was still trying to be aggressive with good court positioning and great volleys at net.

    The knee must be feeling good, because Rafa was moving so well on the court. Even the drop shot tactic by his opponents didn’t really work that well. Rafa was able to get there. That didn’t always happen last year. Seeing Rafa moving so well in his first tournament, can only mean good things for this year.

    I am just looking forward to the AO. I am liking Rafa’s chances.

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  56. Updated ATP figures for 2014 – Active players – Winning percentage on hardcourts, career to date (Wins/Matches Played):
    http://www.atpworldtour.com/Reliability-Zone/Reliability-Hard-Current-List.aspx

    # 1, Djokovic: 82.4% (350W/425MP)
    # 2, Federer: 82.3% (564W/685MP)
    # 3, Nadal: 78.1% (318W/407MP)
    # 4, Murray: 78.0% (290W/372MP)
    # 5, del Potro: 71.2% (210W/295MP)
    # 6, Raonic: 70.2% (92W/130 MP)

    It simply confirms the historical shifts we’ve seen happening on the courts over the past year – impressive, really!

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      • ^^^^
        Thanks for reminding us of Rafa’s truly awesome, almost unreal, winning percentage on clay courts! Otherworldly for sure!

        Do you happen to know what Borg’s winning percentage was on clay courts? I seem to remember someone bringing it up back when we were all on TT. If memory serves, I believe that Rafa’s is higher.

        Also, the other thing I take away from those stats posted regarding winning percentage on hard courts, is how Rafa is right up there near the top. There is virtually no difference between Djoker and Fed, but Rafa is only a few percentage points behind him. Almost in a tie with Murray.

        Considering the absurd propaganda from the haters about Rafa not being able to win on hard courts, those stats certainly indicate otherwise.

        Of course, after 2013 I think it’s going to be impossible to propagate that argument anymore! Rafa showed his prowess on hard courts by beating everyone else and having his own impressive winning streak!

        An all court player if ever there was one! 🙂

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  57. Thanks for all the videos and reports everyone! I’ve been vacationing in So. Cal. Just come back to freezing temperature from 70+ degree. 🙁 Rafa’s win at Doha is very very encouraging. Bring on the AO!!!

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  58. I think Rafa is a Tiger in Chinese astrology. Here is one prediction for Tiger in the coming new year that starts on 1/31/2014:
    “The Chinese Astrology Tiger horoscope for 2014 suggests that for Tiger individuals, the coming Chinese New Year will bring lots of luck and prosperity. Although there are changes on the horizon in the workplace, Tiger people should not be fearful of them or view them with suspicion. These changes are likely to be very fruitful for Tiger folk and if they feel overwhelmed by uncertainty they should look to time which will prove their insecurities are groundless. The time of the Horse will open things up for Tiger individuals and present them with new and exciting opportunities.

    Financial wealth will come to the Tiger person in various forms this period. Indeed, finances will generally be very healthy. There will be commissions and bonuses, rewards and even unexpected winnings. Naturally cautious with money, Tiger people are unlikely to splash out this year, despite the fact that they should reward individuals who have helped them make excellent financial decisions in the past. Tiger people will be wise to acknowledge useful financial contacts on this occasion.”

    It sounds promising…. 🙂

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  60. Hello everyone,

    I too would like to thank you all for your posts. Back home from frigid Alberta.

    There are stats that don’t say much. But sometimes there are stats that have real meaning and truth to them. Those hardcourt stats are like that.

    Re Rafa’s claycourt stats vs Borg’s: I remember that Rafa’s surpassed Borg’s a while ago, in several ways you can measure them. (Sheer match winning percentage being one). What is equally impressive is that Rafa’s career has already been quite a bit longer than Borg’s – where you’d expect the stats generally to come down at least somewhat in the last years of a career, depending how long you keep hanging on.

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  61. NNY, chloro,

    Borg had a 246-39 (86.3%) clay court record in his career…rafa now has a 293-21 (93.3%)… but we should remember that some of borg’s clay court matches were played on ‘green clay’ ,which was somewhat quicker than red clay . However, Rafa has far superior numbers now in every facet.

    Rafa also had a ridiculous 83.7 % winning record in ALL matches he has played in his career… borg ended with 82.7%…roger is at 81.1% , djokovic is at 80.4%.

    Chloro has given a really good point. Rafa’s winning % is not declining with age…he is just getting better and better lol. These stats should be given much more importance than they are actually given. I find the idea of measuring greatness merely by no.of grand slams very silly to be honest.

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  62. vamosrafa,

    Thanks so much for the info on Borg. I did think that Rafa surpassed him, but wanted to be sure. That stats really are extraordinary, especially when you factor in that Borg walked away from the sport at the age of 25. Rafa is still playing.

    I do agree that chloro made a great point about Rafa’s winning percentage not declining with age. That is quite extraordinary.

    Good stuff! 🙂

    Reply

  63. yup…rafa’s numbers are incomparable esp when you factor in the ridiculous runs at MC,barcelona,rome… unearthly ! rafa also has 42 titles on clay at age 27..mind boggling ! borg has a staggering 30 titles…

    to be fair to borg, he lost about 12-13 matches on clay in 1973 when he was just 17 i guess…rafa was a brilliant clay courter at age 17 in 2004 but injuries did not allow him to play a full year in 2004.. so borg’s 12 losses in that year affected his % but still, rafa’s 93.3% is beyond insane.

    oh , and how can we forget rafa’s mastery of the biggest of them all -ROLAND GARROS !!

    lastly, panatta was truly borg’s nemeis on clay as he beat borg 5 times on clay.. rafa even at 27 has not lost more than 2 matches to any single player (both nole and fed have two wins each)

    Reply

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