Doha, Brisbane, and Chennai previews and predictions

The only thing shorter than the tennis offseason is the buildup to the Australian Open. Just two weeks into the year, the first Grand Slam of 2016 will be upon us. As such, almost everyone—even the very top players in the world—is eager to do some fine-tuning at smaller, 250-point events in preparation for Melbourne. The action begins with a bang this upcoming week in Doha, Brisbane, and Chennai.

Qatar ExxonMobil Open

Where: Doha, Qatar
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,189,605
Points: 250

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: David Ferrer

Draw analysis: This could end up being one of the most top-heavy draws of the entire year, in that the star power is huge but the depth is strikingly thin. Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer are all on hand in Doha. For those counting, that means four of the top seven players are in attendance. After that, however, there is a precipitous drop-off. You have to go down to No. 17 in the world to find the fifth seed (Feliciano Lopez) and to No. 29 to find the sixth (Andreas Seppi). Fernando Verdasco is the highest-ranked unseeded floater at No. 49.

Djokovic, Nadal, Berdych, and Ferrer should all cruise into the semifinals. Berdych may have the toughest road, with Sergiy Stakjovsky in round one and possibly Lopez in the quarters. Should the Czech navigate those waters, his reward would almost certainly be a date with Djokovic in the last four. In the other half, Nadal and Ferrer should be feeling good about themselves following the Abu Dhabi exhibition. Nadal captured the title on Saturday over Milos Raonic, while Ferrer beat Stan Wawrinka for third place.

First-round upset alert: Ricardas Berankis over (6) Andreas Seppi. The two previous head-to-head meetings could not have been much closer. Seppi prevailed 7-6(4), 7-6(2) at the 2011 Mons Challenger and 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(6) last season on the indoor hard courts of Zagreb. The Italian is coming off a typical year in which he finished 29th in the world. Berankis is a considerable underdog on paper at No. 85 in the rankings, but the Lithuanian heated up last summer and wrapped up his season with a Challenger title.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer

Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Andrey Kuznetsov

Semifinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal over David Ferrer

Final: Djokovic over Nadal

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Brisbane International

Where
: Brisbane, Australia
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $404,780
Points: 250

Top seed
: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Not unlike at many Grand Slams, Federer should be able to sleepwalk through his draw prior to the quarterfinals. It helps, of course, that the 34-year-old Swiss has an opening-round bye as the first of the top four seeds. He awaits either Australian wild card Benjamin Mitchell or a qualifier. But then things could get tricky. In the last eight, Federer will likely face the winner of a first-round showdown between Gilles Simon and Grigor Dimitrov. The top half of the bracket is also home to Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Korean teenager Hyeon Chung. Cilic and Chung are on a second-round collision course for a rematch of a 2015 Washington, D.C. encounter that ended at 2:27 in the morning.

The other side of the draw is alarmingly weaker, riddled with qualifiers. It would not be surprising to see the four seeded entrants coast into the quarters. Bernard Tomic has Nicolas Mahut and Dusan Lajovic in his path to a potential date with Kei Nishikori in the last eight. Raonic, the runner-up to Federer last season, and David Goffin should have no trouble setting up a quarterfinal tussle in their section.

First-round upset alert: Grigor Dimitrov over (5) Gilles Simon. Simon vs. Dimitrov is the marquee first-round matchup of the entire week. This is what happens when Dimitrov has stooped so low in the rankings that he is unseeded at a 250-point tournament. In fairness to the Bulgarian, though, he would be a seed at just about any other 250-pointer this season—including in Doha or Chennai. Simon leads the head-to-head series 4-0, but they have not faced each other since 2012. As bad as Dimitrov was in 2015, he remains dangerous.

Hot: Roger Federer, Marin Cilic, David Goffin, Steve Johnson, Hyeon Chung, Lucas Pouille

Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Nicolas Mahut, Radek Stepanek

Semifinals: Roger Federer over Dominic Thiem and Milos Raonic over Kei Nishikori

Final
: Federer over Raonic

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Aircel Chennai Open

Where: Chennai, India
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $425,535
Points: 250

Top seed: Stan Wawrinka
Defending champion: Stan Wawrinka

Draw analysis: The Stan Wawrinka Invitational may be in for more of the same this time around after Wawrinka triumphed in both 2014 and 2015. That is not to say, however, that Wawrinka has an easy draw. The top-seeded Swiss finds himself in the same quarter as familiar foe Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and he could go up against good friend Benoit Paire in the semifinals. Wawrinka might first have to survive an intriguing second-round date with up-and-coming Russian Andrey Rublev.

Speaking of youngsters, Borna Coric has a nice opportunity to make a real run in Chennai. The Croat opens with Marcel Granollers before possibly facing either Rajeev Ram or Austin Krajicek in the quarters and Roberto Bautista Agut in the semis. Second-seeded Kevin Anderson, meanwhile, will likely run into either Vasek Pospisil or Aljaz Bedene in the last eight.

First-round upset alert: Aljaz Bedene over (7) Vasek Pospisil. Bedene may be known mostly as the guy who has been unable to get an all-clear for British Davis Cup participation, but he started to make a name for himself on the court at this Chennai event in 2015. The Slovenian-turned-Brit finished runner-up to Wawrinka as a qualifier. This head-to-head series is tied 1-1; Bedene scored a 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-3 victory at the 2014 Miami Masters before Pospisil got the job done 6-3, 6-4 this past fall in Valencia. The proverbial rubber match could be a good one.

Hot: Benoit Paire, Andrey Rublev, Evgeny Donskoy

Cold: Nicolas Almagro, Santiago Giraldo, Marcel Granollers

Semifinals: Stan Wawrinka over Benoit Paire and Borna Coric over Vasek Pospisil

Final: Wawrinka over Coric

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

41 Comments on Doha, Brisbane, and Chennai previews and predictions

  1. Hey, Rafa is in the hot column! Yay! I fully expect to see Rafa and Novak meet in the final at Doha. I can’t see anyone getting in their way. As far as the final prediction, I wish that Rafa would beat Novak. That’s all I can say about that.

    I think Fed is the odds on favorite to win Brisbane. He may well meet Raonic, but it could be Nishi.

    I like Stan to win in Chennai. Coric could well be in the final, but I am not positive about that.

  2. I dont think Rafa is going to beat Novak should they meet. Rafa is fond of messing up and makes life difficult for himself. Even in an exho he could tense up during crucial moments, what more during an atp final and vs the no.1 player?

    I agree with Ricky, Novak over Rafa in the Doha final.

  3. Novak will have to drop in level at some point…Rafa is on the raise…I refuse to write him off just like that! Rafa has huge chance to win Doha! He has played matches in December while Novak was on the beach…time for Rafa to make it difficult for the Serb not the other way around…
    Vamos Rafa!

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