This past week on the ATP Tour was a fun one. Joao Fonseca won his first title in Buenos Aires, Miomir Kecmanovic saved two championship points to survive an epic Delray Beach final, and Ugo Humbert triumphed yet again on an indoor hard court in France (Marseille).
There is no rest for the weary, with two 500-point tournaments on the upcoming schedule following last week’s trio of 250s. A stacked draw in Doha features Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, while Fonseca, Alexander Zverev, and Lorenzo Musetti are taking their talents to Rio de Janeiro.
It’s time to break down another busy ATP week.
Qatar ExxonMobil Open
Where: Doha, Qatar
Surface: Hard
Points: 500
Prize money: $3,035,960
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Karen Khachanov
Draw analysis: Alcaraz and Djokovic are in the same half of the Doha bracket. How is that even possible? Well, Djokovic is down at No. 7 in the world, so he is seeded third behind sixth-ranked Alex de Minaur. That means Alcaraz and Djokovic are on a collision course for the semifinals, but neither man can afford to look ahead. The 21-year-old Spaniard could face Grigor Dimitrov or Jiri Lehecka in the quarters, while the 38-year-old Serb opens with Matteo Berrettini before possibly going up against Tallon Griekspoor in round two and Jack Draper in the last eight.
The other side of the bracket may not be as top heavy, but it is incredibly deep. Among the contenders are De Minaur, Humbert, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and defending champion Karen Khachanov. Tsitsipas’ path is especially difficult. The Greek kicks off his campaign against Marseille runner-up Hamad Medjedovic and could meet Auger-Aliassime in the last 16 prior to a quarterfinal showdown against Medvedev.
Hot: Alex de Minaur, Ugo Humbert, Nuno Borges, Zizou Bergs, Hamad Medjedovic
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, Alexander Bublik, Jan-Lennard Struff, Marin Cilic
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Fabian Marozsan, Novak Djokovic over Jack Draper, Stefanos Tsitsipas over Zizou Bergs, and Alex de Minaur over Andrey Rublev
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Djokovic and De Minaur over Tsitsipas
Final: Alcaraz over De Minaur
Rio Open
Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: $2,574,145
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Sebastian Baez
Draw analysis: It’s going to be an absolute circus in Rio de Janeiro whenever Fonseca takes the court. As if the hype wasn’t already off the charts, the 18-year-old lifted the Buenos Aires trophy on Sunday. Now he will play in front of the home crowd, looking to go even farther than he did in 2024 as a 17-year-old (lost to Mariano Navone in the quarterfinals). Fonseca has a favorable draw through two rounds, after which he could run into Francisco Cerundolo in the quarters and Zverev in the semis. The Brazilian took down Cerundolo 6-4, 7-6(1) in the Buenos Aires final.
The bottom half is where everyone wants to be. Not only do you avoid Zverev, Fonseca, and Cerundolo, but No. 2 seed Lorenzo Musetti is also a question mark to even play this week after sustaining a calf injury in Buenos Aires. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who lost to Kecmanovic in the Delray Beach title match, has already withdrawn. Thus the door could be open for players such as defending champion Sebastian Baez, Mariano Navone, Jaume Munar, and Brazilians Thiago Seyboth Wild and Thiago Monteiro.
Hot: Alexander Zverev, Francisco Cerundolo, Joao Fonseca, Jaume Munar, Bu Yunchaokete
Cold: Alejandro Tabilo, Nicolas Jarry, Dusan Lajovic, Alexander Shevchenko
Quarterfinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Francisco Comesana, Joao Fonseca over Luciano Darderi, Mariano Navone over Thiago Monteiro, and Jaume Munar over Pedro Martinez
Semifinals: Zverev over Fonseca and Navone over Munar
Final: Zverev over Navone
who ya got?
You don’t learn. You predicted João Fonseca’s defeat three times in Buenos Aires. And you keep predicting it. Don’t you believe in the wunderkind?
I absolutely do.
I don’t think you understand how impressive wins over Etch, Navone, and Cerundolo IN ARGENTINA are. Made a lot of sense to pick against him.
Djokovic is definitely losing to Beritinni, he is the worst person ever, why isn’t he banned. I understand Andy Murrays pain. He is a disgrace to roger.
seems a bit extreme