Novak Djokovic repeats as champion in London with a straight-set victory over Rafael Nadal on Monday. Nadal ends his season with a 75-7 record.
Rafael Nadal may have won the war in 2013, but Novak Djokovic won this battle. In fact, Djokovic came out on top in every single one of his post-U.S. Open battles.
The world No. 2 improved to 22-0 during the fall swing and successfully defended his World Tour Finals title by beating Nadal 6-3, 6-4 in one hour and 36 minutes on Monday night. Djokovic, also a recent champion in Beijing, Shanghai, and Paris, fired six aces without double-faulting and he dropped serve only once.
“One thing that made the difference in today’s match was the serve,” Nadal reflected. “I didn’t serve well; he served well. On this kind of court, the first shot is very important and he hit that first shot much better than me.”
The Spaniard recovered from an immediate donation of serve in the second game of the match by breaking his opponent at 1-3 in the first set. Djokovic started to spray backhands all over everywhere, but his gift-giving mode ended in a hurry. The second seed seized another scalp of the Nadal serve by converting break point at the end of a dramatic rally that concluded with a forehand volley winner. Back in front 5-3, Djokovic made no mistake with the set on his racket.
Set two was mostly one-way traffic, starting with a Djokovic break for 2-1. Nadal, who struggled to find the range on his forehand all day long, never could get back on serve. The world No. 1 did well to hold at 3-5, even saving a championship point with a punishing forehand down the line. If the pressure was on in the following game, Djokovic did not show it. After missing one more match point, Djokovic hammered an ace at deuce and clinched victory when Nadal set an inside-out forehand just wide.
“I think I’ve worked on a few things in my game and serve that has helped me win a lot of matches in last two months,” the winner explained. “This is definitely the best possible way that I can finish the season; the official ATP season, not including the Davis Cup final that I have in a few days’ time.”
Nadal still leads the overall head-to-head series 22-17, but Djokovic boasts a 13-7 advantage on hard courts.
“We push each other to the limit; we make each other better,” Djokovic said of the rivalry. “We make each other work harder on our games, especially when we play against each other. It’s always a huge challenge.”
Rafa is still the best.
Looking forward to seeing the World #1 in Abu Dhabi at the end of December.
Vamos Rafa!
I did not expect Rafa to win this but hoped he did as he wanted it real bad as it was missing in his resume. What I saw was really disappointing. Never did I think it will be a straight set defeat , I def thought will go to 3.
Indoors is just not Rafa surface though he did much better this year than other years.
The serving, FH, ROS all of it was so bad all match, it was pathetic to watch.
Also on tired part, Nole has played as many matches as Rafa..if he can gut out a win, there should be no excuses for Rafa
Rafa has kinda lost the edge he built on Nole by these 2 defeats and Nole will now be very high on confidence to start 2014. He is the out n out fav for AO 2014.
“Also on tired part, Nole has played as many matches as Rafa..if he can gut out a win, there should be no excuses for Rafa”
I respectfully disagree. Rafa has played more matches than Nole during 2013, fact, so it is not surprising that he is tired. This time of the season is Nole’s favourite and the opposite for Rafa, so it is not a surprise that Nole would be more up for it than Nole. Personally, I am very pleased with Rafa’s showing on HC this year, much better than previously.
Novak was always the favourite for AO2014, it is his favourite Slam! However, I am quietly confident Rafa will cause an upset there. This loss will help keep Rafa on his toes, and that can only be bad news for his rivals.
Vamos Rafa!
told you so! I hate what djoker is becoming again!
If you can’t serve a single ace in a match played on indoor HC you might as well just concede victory. Nadal’s serve mojo, already one of his most vulnerable points, deserts him at the end of the season.
Congratulations to both players for such a great season.
Let’s hope next season is at least half as good for Rafa!
^^Thank you @Shireling for pointing out the obvious. I am glad you also noticed how erratic Rafa’s serve is during the Fall. This is why I think it is mental fatigue, not some fundamental technical problems. Rafa himself also singled out his poor serving as one of the reasons for his poor performance. That 1st set was lost because of the double faults, not advisable on fast surfaces in a best of 3……………..
Sanju, You are being far too harsh on Rafa. You cannot compare the year that has just passed for Rafa with that of Djokovic.
If you recall, Novak was totally spent after the USO in 2011 – the year when he swatted every other player aside for 8 months. What Rafa did this year was a far greater achievement and will stand for ever as testimony to not only his skills but also to his extraordinary willpower and courage.
^^I have been scratching my head to try and see Sanju’s point of view on this but I am failing. Sanju just REALLY wanted Rafa to win WTF 2013…….
Yes to cap a beautiful year..would hve been okay with loss, just was disappointed it happened in straights
very well put, ed
and re sanju, I think it is disappointment speaking and that’s where a bit of exaggeration is coming into it.
I knew that Nole was the clear favorite but thought that Rafa was not as tired as he turned out to be and might just do it in Rafa-magic style in a hard-fought three setter. I don’t read yesterday’s match as any indication that anything has changed between the two of them. AO14 Nole is the favourite and not because of yesterday or even this fall – it is the slam that is the easiest one for him. But we know that Rafa has a decent chance at an upset here again, and a far better one on that surface than indoors at the end of a tiring fall / year. It will again be one of the last times Rafa will have to complete a second career slam so we can expect him to try very hard. I agree with ritb that there is nothing technically wrong with Rafa’s game, just about everything is very well with it. Let’s see what a refreshed Rafa can do in AO, and same for Andy. Another AO for Nole is the expected result but far from certain. Even in early 2012 after a miraculous year and defeating Rafa 6 times in a row he barely defeated Rafa there over six hours.
I find it upsetting when I see Rafa being berated for failing to beat Djokovic. It was disappointing to see him struggling last night but we have to remember that in comparison to his normal fall season two semi-finals and two finals was pretty damn impressive. what’s more it was in a year when he could be forgiven for performing less well than normal.
sanju is a closet Nolfan who poses as a Rafan. It’s true to form.
In his presser, Rafa doesn’t think that his level was that far away from Novak’s, he said his serve was off which gave Novak the opportunity to dominate. That’s exactly what I saw and Rafa says he hopes to do well in Australia. Rafa did not mention anything about being tired.
Vamos Rafa!
Speak for yourself nadline..such comments not appreciated. I am just not choosing to react however dont think you hav the right to comment on whose fan one is.
Yes RITB, chloro, ed: Was pissed yesterday and disappointed, okay now. Part of the game. Let us see what Rafa shows us next year, hopefully lot to smile about. Really want him to win 2 slams next year AO and FO.
you can do far worse than “accusing” someone of being a fan of a certain tennis player.
Oh okay, now understand your disappointment @Sanju, it’s the fact Rafa lost in straights………
Don’t worry @Sanju, Rafa hates losing to Novak as much as we his fans do. The AO surface is better for him, he has won there before, taken Novak to the limit there so he will be back!
it’s also not at the end of a very long season
Sanju,
You don’t have to defend yourself against such an absurd accusation. Every time any Rafa fan says something that one Rafa fan happens to dislike, then the same old tired accusation is trotted out. You are being accused of not being a real Rafa fan. I have been there and know how it feels.
I do understand why you feel the way you do. I was very disappointed at the manner in which Rafa lost the final. However, I took some time to think it over before I posted any thoughts. I realized that Rafa has done so much this year and maybe it should have been expected that there would be a letdown at some point. He’s not a machine.
I will never condemn you or ever accuse you of not being a Rafa fan. What I would like to say to you is that what helps to overcome these feelings of disappointment, is to have some perspective. I wrote a long post on the other topic thread for the final. In that post, I explained why I am not going to freak out or start awfulizing about this match.
Rafa is just mentally exhausted and wasn’t able to play well enough to get the win. Djoker didn’t play that great, it was just that Rafa couldn’t get his serve going and didn’t have enough left. We should remember that he did secure the year end #1. Djoker ran the table and won all of his events and yet it still wasn’t enough to snatch the year end #1 away from Rafa.
So we can let Djoker have his fall hard court titles and let Rafa have his two slams, the Summer Slam, all those Masters victories, the great hard court victories and being #1 again. Honestly, who among us would have thought Rafa would do what he has done when he first came back?
So just try to think of the big picture and realize that one final loss doe not mean that the world has ended. Cheer up! 🙂
Nole would be advised not to live in a fool’s paradise thinking that he’s now got the mental edge over Rafa again.
exactly…that’s the point…
Good win for Djokovic. He has some nice momentum for the Aussie open.
Yep, Rafa’s serve was very weak yesterday. This is mental fatigue more than anything else.
Why is it so hard for him to get aces? that’s the question. It ain’t lack of upper body strength or faulty technique, that’s for sure. It has got to be his mindset. Rafa doesn’t want to ‘throw anything away’ and in his mind an all out serve is too much of a bargain. Which shouldn’t be IMHO.
I’m not going to be too hard on him, I mean, it was a bad day but the more painful (for Rafa fans) because it became apparent straight away.
he needs to get back to his 2011 US Open days
or 2010, whenever it was
Preach it, Feli……………
RT @feliciano_lopez: “Congrats to @DjokerNole!! As Rafa said, he’s a super player!! @RafaelNadal is the spanish hero and world number 1!! Bravo!!”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/24907129
Nadal, 27, admitted he had been outplayed on Monday but insisted he was not upset to miss out on winning the one significant title to have eluded him.
“That’s the sport,” said the Spaniard. “Seriously, I think it’s not going to change my career, winning or losing today.
“I will not be a better player, talking about the history, with that match or without that match. Maybe I am wrong, but that’s my feeling.
“That’s fine. I normally accept very well the losses. I am not very disappointed.
“I know that I was not the favourite for the match, even if I tried with the right attitude, fighting for every moment, trying to be positive in every moment, even if the match was not going the way that I would like.”
Amen to that, Rafa!!
he is just trying not to let djoker get into his mind like 201!!
I think Rafa has taken his entire entourage to Necker.
At $50 a head, nice one!.
I’ll say that again:
$50,000 a head!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I never thought I would agree with Bodo but here goes:
” A lot will be said about Nadal’s shortcomings on indoor hard courts, and there certainly are concrete, game-and-surface based reasons for why this spectacularly great player has never won the year-end championships. But to my mind, the result was heavily influenced by the amount of skin each man had in the game.
Given what Nadal went through during the second half of 2012, his year was successful to a degree that nobody would have dared predict. Even Nadal declared when he won the French Open for the 45th time in a row back in June that the victory had made his year, come what may. What came was even greater success, as Nadal compiled a 75-7 record for the year (with two Grand Slams and 10 total titles). That compares pretty well with Djokovic’s 2011 season, during which he went 70-6.
To top off his comeback, Nadal clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking just two matches into this World Tour Finals. Could you have dreamt up a better way to make this final with Djokovic seem more exhibition than Armageddon? ”
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/11/more-exhibition-armageddon/49767/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.UoImk-JRCDc
I too agree, exceptionally :-), with Bodo here. Minus the one point re amount of skin in the game. You could argue that both had a vast of amount of reasons to have a lot of that skin in this game. But as some of you pointed out, Rafa was a too spent by this time of the year, even though less than in other years, to take cause an upset on his worst surface against someone of Novak’s callibre unless Novak was had been too much off his game. Get the better of other opponents was doable, but no amount of willpower and fight, no amount of skin in the game can take you past the ‘wall’ of being too spent, as one of you put it. I thought that Rafa was a little less spent but that was wishful thinking.
Ten, twenty years from now I may have forgotten many details of his other remarkable years on the tour, but this will be one of those that will stand out the most. As it happens, so will 2005, his first annus mirabilis. Sorry about the Latin reference, it happens to have taken place 100 years after the year in Einstein’s early career in which he produced so many marvelous results that they stuck that label on it.
ed251137@November 12, 2013 at 8:49 am
—What Rafa did this year was a far greater achievement and will stand for ever as testimony to not only his skills but also to his extraordinary willpower and courage.—
Yes! Rafa’s comeback-year after a seven-month layoff turned out to be his BEST seasons ever! He:
¤ won 10 titles (in 2005 – 11 titles)
¤ reached 14 finals (the career best result)
¤ won 91% of his matches (the career highest result)
¤ finished as YE No.1 (the 3rd time during the career)
¤ won 2 GS tournaments and 5 Masters 1000 tournaments.
In 2005, playing his FIRST full season (and being only 18 -19 years old!), he won 11 titles, but he finished the season as YE No.2. He
¤ won 11 titles
¤ reached 12 finals
¤ won 89% of his matches
¤ finished as YE No.2 (for the first time, then his career highest ranking).
As for the WTF, Rafa’s best achievement there was his victory over Fed – Fedfans can’t say anymore that Rafa hasn’t defeated Fed on indoors hard courts. It’s a really sweet victory!!! 🙂
augusta,
Well said! We should not forget that Rafa got his first ever win against Fed on indoor hard courts! That should not get lost in the disappointment over his loss to Djoker in the final.
Another reason for Fed fans to gnash their teeth as Rafa keeps making inroads against Fed. 🙂
AO2014 odds, this is why some of us are bullish about Rafa, he is right there behind Djoker:
RT @BryanAGraham: “Your Aussie Open odds (starts in 63 days): Djokovic (6/4), Nadal (5/2), Murray (9/2), Delpo (10/1), Federer (20/1). “
And according to ‘easyodds’:
N.Djokovic – 2.56
R.Nadal – 3.15
A.Murray – 7.6
JM Del Potro – 18
R.Federer – 14.5
A reminder that Djokovic’s post USO run is nothing new, he did last year as well:
RT @juanjosetennis: “Last year, Djokovic lost all of 1 match between the 2012 US Open and 2013 Indian Wells (L to Querrey in Paris). 5 titles in that run.”
It’s the same as Rafa’s domination during the Spring, the only difference is that Rafa has improved his level in the Fall (making the semis or better) while Djokovic was nowhere as consistent in the Fall (see Madrid and Rome).
sanju is a devoted rafa fan ! I would never ever doubt his loyalty….sometimes, he can get sad and negative ,hence his comments 🙂 not to worry …
I won’t go into details…I am just going to say : Rafa will be on fire at Oz 2014. Mark my words.
Thanks vamosrafa. I dont think anyone does here except 1 lady who anyways thinks its her birthright to take potshots at everyone 😉
and no , tiredness was not necessarily a reason! and overall rafa has played more matches i 2013, fact..but lately,post USO, nole has played more as he has won every tournaments he has won .. DOes not really matter…rafa got slughtered by fed 6-3 6-0 in 2011 WTF but emphatically beat federer in 4 sets at Oz 2012.
Rafa is my joint fav with nole, no less no more.
@chloro 2:18pm, I think what Bodo means by the “skin in the game” comment is:
a. Rafa’s monumental year, culminating in securing YE#1 2 matches into the tourny, drained Rafa emotionally and this weighed on his motivation. Novak was the opposite.
b. Novak had more to lose, by losing, than Rafa. Not just in points but in momentum going into 2014. Rafa still has momentum going into 2014 thanks to the Year he had. Now we can also say Novak has momentum going into 2014 thanks to the Fall he had. If Novak had lost, all his good work post USO leading up to WTF would have been consigned to footnotes.
Agreed,
The Rafa and FO obsession continues for Novak:
“Djokovic finishes 2013 with a 72-9 record and seven titles. But still missing is the French Open and a return to No. 1, two big goals for 2014 that he says he can achieve after gaining back some leverage on Nadal who beat him in an epic five sets in Paris.
“I would choose to win both next year,” he said referring to the French and the No. 1 ranking. “That’s only thing that I’m doing. I’m looking ahead. What happened happened, and everything happens for a reason. As I said before, those losses that I had against Nadal in the big matches made me understand what I need to do to become a better and stronger player. That’s all that matters now.
“I won over 20 matches in a row. With this particular confidence, I’m getting into the new season that hopefully can be the one for me where I can challenge Rafa on Roland Garros.”
http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2013-11-12/14181.php
#HolyGrail
Novak is making a big mistake. He can only play Rafa in the final and there are plenty of players in between them that could upset the apple cart.
Players are not always on their game, Novak was very lack lustre at Wimbledon against Andy Murray.
We’ve seen this movie before, @nadline: Novak announces his target(s) pre-season (the FO). He proceeds to lose matches he has no business losing while focussed on “the goal”. The goal is in sight and he fluffs his lines…………
Nothing to see here, let’s move on………….
I don’t pay too much attention to what Novak says in interviews, no matter the context or the subject. He knows and we all know that RG 13 was by far his best chance so far to defeat Rafa there. Simply because Rafa was coming back only a dozen or so short weeks from a major injury break, and every tournament he was entering was still a question mark, pure and simple, clay or not, RG or not. Witness to this fact is that shortly after that match his knee acted up plenty (if not already during), so much so that he could not get out of the first round at Wimbie and then took a few weeks’ break to be able to compete again.
So long as the knee is not a factor come RG it is highly unlikely Novak will have the same chance to take Rafa to 5 sets should they meet in the final. And nadline is very right, you can’t count on making it to the final at RG, the toughest tournament in that regard, unless your name is Rafa and your knees are pretty much alright.
If my name was Andy, Juan, Novak, Roger or a few more, I would probably hope and maybe even pray if was inclined to pray, half-ashamed, that Rafa’s knees would cause him not to be in my way for a few months while I was after my most desired trophy/ies.
I like Fed’s attitude towards RG best: as long as Rafa is in the draw, fuggedaboutit. This way, Fed saves himself disappointment and if a window opens up unexpectedly like it did in that fateful year when Rafa lost to Sod, take advantage and thank your lucky stars!
If this was Novak’s attitude as well, I am sure he would have fared better at Wimby 2012 and 2013.
it’s no longer a desire to win RG by beating Rafa…it’s Nole’s obsession…
I’m sure this has come up in many threads (sorry) but,
Why does Rafa struggle so much with his serve?
(I tried to write this before but my comment was deleted..)
@Shireling, wasn’t it you who posted that Rafa’s serve is erratic during the Fall and I surmised that this might be due to mental fatigue? I thought your observation made sense. I myself also did remark that Rafa’s serve had become erratic but I thought you answered my query when you said it was “during the Fall”.
His serve is intelligent, rock solid in some matches (e.g. against Fed, Berdy) and a mess at times (against Nole, Wawa). However, he served very well all season leading up to USO so I am inclined to think mental fatigue has a lot to do with it………..
Maybe his cut finger was hurting.
RT @TennisReporters: “Nadal after loss 2 Djokovic in ATP Finals:’I hope 2 be ready 4 Australia 2 play my best again. Is little more favorable court for me'”
Hey, guys, I see, most of you are in the right mood to put this loss into perspective. I’m a little disappointed, too, that Rafa wasn’t up to one final heroic deed, but for me, he had his cherry on the season cake, when he managed to lock up the year end No 1. And, since Novak kept rolling (congrats to him for this), Rafa had to do it all by himself, nobody helped him out by defeating the Djoker. Kudos.
As it is, this part of the season has been Novak’s best stretch for a while now, and it coincides with Rafa’s worst stretch. Or I should rather say, Rafa’s least favorite stretch. In triathlon it is important to perform at your best in your favorite discipline. But it is equally important to lose as little time as possible in your worst discipline. I think, Rafa performed outstandingly at the tournaments, he loves and favours, but he also performed better than ever in the post US Open season, where he always lets a bit up. Kudos again for this.
2014 is a whole new thing, and, as Boris Becker said in one of his more lucid moments: ‘Rafa is a creature of the sun and the wind’. Unlike in the artificial light of the O2 Arena, there will be both at the AO. Novak’s win in London doesn’t mean at all, that the AO trophy can be shipped to him already. Rafa and other players will have plenty to say about this.
“it’s also not at the end of a very long season”
What do you mean by the above quote, Ricky?
I think ricky was referring to AO 2014 mentioned in the previous comment.
AO is at the start of the season, when Nadal (and everyone else) is close to 100 percent.
Very good article on Rafa and Novak:
http://www.tenniscanada.com/index.php?title=TEBBUTT:-DUEL-OF-THE-ULTIMATE-DUO&pid=5145
“The final on Monday was closer than it appeared. ”
“Robert Paluba, an astute PHD student in mathematics in Paris, made the interesting observation that, despite the loss, Nadal had his best ever career post-US Open stretch, in terms of ATP ranking points – runner-up in Beijing (Djokovic), semi-finalist Shanghai (del Potro), semi-finalist Paris (Ferrer) and runner-up YEC (Djokovic).”
“It was surprising to hear Vadja comment recently that Djokovic didn’t believe he could beat Nadal at the US Open.”
—“an astute PHD student in mathematics in Paris, made the interesting observation that, despite the loss, Nadal had his best ever career post-US Open stretch, in terms of ATP ranking points—
Wow! An astute PHD student in mathematics in Paris discovered the ATP website! 🙂
Ha,ha, I don’t think, you have to be a phd student in math for recognizing, that Rafa had his best stretch ever post US Open…
how did he do in other 2010 tournaments before reaching the WTFs final?
Ricky Dimon@November 12, 2013 at 7:00 pm
2010
Points, total: 1680
WTF – Final – 1000 points
Masters 1000 Shanghai – R16 – 90 points
ATP-500 Tokyo – Win – 500 points
ATP-250 Bangkok – SF – 90 points
2010 (opponents, courts, results)
Points, total: 1680
World Tour Finals; 21.11.2010; Indoor: Hard;
Final——Roger Federer——L 3-6, 6-3, 1-6
Masters 1000 Shanghai; 10.10.2010; Outdoor: Hard;
R16——Jurgen Melzer——L 1-6, 6-3, 3-6
ATP-500 Tokyo; 04.10.2010; Outdoor: Hard;
Win——Gael Monfils ——W 6-1, 7-5
ATP-250 Bangkok; 27.09.2010; Indoor: Hard;
SF——Guillermo Garcia-Lopez——L 6-2, 6-7(3), 3-6
oh HAHAHAHA the infamous GGL match.
my brother was at that match. #epic
It is well known that many mathematicians, ie with PhD and all, are rather poor at arithmetic. But I digress..
I meant to add: luckily all he needed to do as Augusta points out was to find out about the ATP site.
Stop taking the piss, people. The point is Rafa is so important even astute Parisian mathematicians are motivated to run algorithms around his performance……..
Do you think they bother with Rosol win charts?
^^ 🙂
Tiggy says Rafa is co-favourite with Novak for AO 2014:
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/11/o2-review/49769/#.UoKEv-JRCDc
“As I’ve written a few times lately, the last few years show that a strong fall can lead to a strong start to the following season, so in that sense you might favor Djokovic in early 2014. But outdoor tennis in Australia is different from indoor tennis in London. As long as the roof stays open in Oz, Nadal should be the co-favorite. I look forward to the next chapter in their story together.”
RAFA IS WINNING AO 2014, YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK!!
Djokovic is about +140
Nadal is the second favorite, around +200
Odds are just that. On the day things often enough turn differently. A number of times since late 2010 Novak has defied the odds. Even more often since 2007 at least Nadal has.
The odds express just an opinion of people who are playing with their money. Their opinion isn’t more important for me than my own opinion.
well it is not Tignor’s place to say who is favored. Djokovic is favored.
He can say who he thinks is going to win, but saying both are favored suggests that he thinks they are both going to win–which doesn’t make any sense.
@Ricky, agree, what Tignor says, doesn’t make it so.
When he says, both are favored, he probably means, it’s a toss up. As to the value of those early predictions, see, what I wrote below.
I’d be interested to know, if betting odds are a more reliable predictor than expert picks. What journos and fans predict, is never completely impartial but if I want to make money by playing the odds, I have to put all fandom aside. But all predictions put out now aren’t worth a dime since things can change mightily from now to the final day of the AO.
agreed.
Although most “experts” usually pick the favorite, so the findings may not be as interested as they could be.
Tignor has a notoriously bad record. Only for the French Open he normally predicts the correct winner, but so have most experts for the last 8 out of nine years, lol!
Tignor seems to be saying that Djoker and Rafa are co-favorites. What’s wrong with that? Obviously he knows that only one can win the AO. He’s not saying that they both can win. There doesn’t have to be one favorite for a slam, unless it’s RG. 🙂
because he is factually wrong.
if he is incorrectly going to use the term “favorite” to mean “the person i think is going to win,” then he cannot say both.
You want him to draw a line in the sand and declare which one he think is the favorite, even if he has to say, “but it will probably be close”. Or else not use the word favorite and say “at this time I am at a loss to call one the more likely to win”.
DO YOU? 😉
yes
anything other than what he currently has down on paper would be an improvement
littlefoot,
I know nothing about how the betting companies operate, but I’ve been wondering the same. Without having bet or looked into this, here is my guess. I think that some of them put effort into keeping all kinds of stats and using some people smarts to help make good predictions, then look also at what the betting customers seem to think. While other companies, perhaps the majority, keep it simple. They go primarily by what their best reading is as to the odds _as far as the customers go_, in other words how much would a great many of them be willing to gamble for or against a particular outcome, right now? (Or rather, distributions of such, of course). If you have a good pulse on that, that may be enough to be very profitable on average. Any thoughts?
At any rate, when I have looked up odds in those summarizing sites re certain specific matches late in tournaments I found that quite often they are pretty good and then other times not particularly good at all at predicting. So in general terms the posted odds mean something and may be better than the ‘experts’, journalists and fans.. but no more than that.
Right now Novak and Nadal are pretty close to each other that many of their matches are hard to call. Maybe not indoors. Maybe not on clay. But elsewhere. 2013 was different. On clay it was early days for Nadal coming back and he was not in good shape by the time of the MC final, not enough to take on Novak in OK form. To a lesser extent the same was true at the RG semi-final.
chloro, as far as I know, there’s a difference between tips, a betting experts might give out, and the odds. How much you can win, if you bet on the right ‘horse’ simply depends on how many other people have bet on that horse, too. Of course, people’s betting behaviour is influenced by expert tips as well as prior results and inside information about influential facts such as injuries etc. So, I’d think the betting scene is more impartial than fans, since it’s about money. I for one don’t get much worked up about journos’ and other people’s prediction, because they have zilch influence on the actual outcome of the event. A tennis player plays against his opponent and not for or against a prediction.
right. the odds are completely determined by the betting trends. Only the opening odds are determined by the oddsmaker. After that, the market takes over.
At the World Soccer Championship 2010 in South Africa, the German journos had an octopus called Paul, who had a 100 % correct prediction quote for all matches he was consulted for, and that were many. He got 2 jars with snacks, each with a flag representing a country on top. The team of the country, Paul choose, won always, lol! Incredible coincidence. It started out as a joke, but in time people started to believe into Paul’s predictions And after a while many people started to think, that Paul DETERMINED the outcome of the matches, and the internet was full of grilled octopus recipes, which normally came from the country of the predicted loser. So, we have to remind ourselves, that Tignor’s and other people’s or octopussy’s prediction have nothing that infuences the outcome of an event positively or negativelyexcept the welll known ‘Tignor Curse’. Players are probably better off, if Tignor doesn’t favor them 🙂
oh yeah, Pulpo Paul was incredible.
May he R.I.P. He died a natural death, and didn’t end up in a paella pan, though Spain feared for his safety, after he predicted Spain’s win over Germany in the semis. Spain wanted to put him into a witness protection program.
Humano Dimon > Pulpo Paul
@Ricky, lol! I hope, your life span is also longer than Paulie’s. He was about 4 years old, when he passed away. But that’s apparently pretty old for an octopus. Unfortunately no equally talented successor emerged in time for the next championship.
still have plenty of time. World Cup not until next summer.
Octopi are highly intelligent and shouldn’t be eaten anyway. They play, they learn, they think. They are brilliant.
That’s true. The only reason, why there’s no octopus civilization on the ocean floor, is their short life span.
Lay off Tiggy, people! This is what he said, “As long as the roof stays open in Oz, Nadal should be the co-favorite.”
Notice: he said SHOULD BE not IS THE.
Geez. Even with English being a second language for me, I can SEE the difference!
Touchée
RITB, Tignor is one of my favorite tennis writers. Only his predictions are cursed, lol! Exibit A: WTF final 2013. Maybe, he should keep an octopus as a pet 🙂
And some rafafans down under should sabotage that roof…
@littlefoot, poor Tiggy, I am so protective of him. He is arguably one of the best writers in tennis and has a soft spot for Rafa! He gets pilloried by you know who for the latter, and he takes refuge in swinging the pendulum the other way, picking Rafa’s opponent everytime! I think WTF 2013 is the first time he has picked Rafa in a long while, which was quite brave because post USO, he didn’t have Rafa making the quarters of all the tournaments he played!
Well, I hope he does not pick Rafa (same for Mr. Dimon) to win AO 2014…………….
#Antijinxspecial
I hate when they put the roof in Oz…it just does not coincide with the purpose of the tourney…it’s an OUTDOOR tournament with A LOT of SUN and high temperatures, with the main motto: who survives the heat wins!…so the concept simply does not buy the roof job…
We have arrived at that End of Term time when for lack of tennis to distract us, everybody, metaphorically speaking, sharpens their pencils to score points against each other 🙂
We need a few juicy blogs Ricky to fill the void.
^^So true ed251137! A very unpleasant time of year for us tennis fans indeed……….let’s all help by giving Ricky suggestions to at least reduce the boredom.
#Distractions
French Open 2014 odds:
Rafael Nadal 3/4
Novak Djokovic 15/8
Andy Murray 16
Thanks for asking.
@RITB
Delboy? Ferrer? Regardless of ranking would’ve thought odds for them are better than for Andy.
And Rogie of course….naughty…:)
@deucy, PaddyPower has Delpo at 14/1 and Muzza at 16/1, Fed at 25/1.
Trouble with Delpo is (and I think it has a lot to do with his size) he lacks consistency. By the time FO comes round he will have played a lot and will be fatigued. Also, while he moves pretty well for a big guy, the slow clay does not do his flat shots any favours, I think next to USO, Wimby is his best surface. Provided Muzza’s back holds up, I would pick him ahead of Delpo for this reason.
Fed? He’ll be mince-meat for the second tier guys……………
@RITB
Am inclined to agree with you re Delpo. In fact at the O2 against Fed he was NOT hitting those massive ground strokes. If you’ve noticed he always grunts when a big un is coming. Grunted on one forehand only, which went straight into the net! Made me wonder if he had wrist problems again.
Am hoping Andy will be back to 3 by the time RG comes around, all depends of course.
@deucy, There’s only 90 points between him and Ferru. Colour me biased but I do not see Ferru making the Miami finals in 2014. And Muzza’s playing Acapulco 2014, right? The tricky bit for Muzza will be AO 2014, with all those finalists points to defend immediately after a long lay off……………..
……btw, I notice the @RITB imposter on Roger-x blog has disappeared! The things some people will do for attention……………..
A Fedfan who is getting his predictions for 2014 in early. And guess who he has penciled in to win AO 2014: Nadal, beating Djokovic. So, picking Rafa to beat Novak on a HC is not as crazy as some might think.
http://www.oregonlive.com/the-spin-of-the-ball/index.ssf/2013/11/rafael_nadal_and_novak_djokovi.html
“My preseason predictions for the 2014 Grand Slam finals:
Australian Open: Nadal def. Djokovic (Nole’s winning streak ends at 30)
French Open: Nadal def. Djokovic (Rafa remains untouchable on clay)
Wimbledon: Djokovic def. Federer (Federer knocks off a weary Nadal in QF)
U.S. Open: Murray def. del Potro (In SF, Murray downs Djokovic, Delpo blasts Nadal)”
I agree with Douglas Perry’s predictions, especially AO, except the Wimby one, after heartbreakingly failing to complete the Rafa Slam once, Rafa is not letting a second opportunity pass by. If Rafa gets AO 2014 and FO 2014 he will get Wimby 2014 and complete the Rafa Slam.
The most interesting point for me, besides his remarkable ability to predict supposedly random draws, is, him admitting, that Fed won’t win slams anymore…at least not in singles. Maybe, Fed should take out a leaf of Verdasco’s book and team up with Wawa and form a Swiss power double…
I really do not get how anyone sane can say Fed has a singles Slam in him in 2014, which one? We know he can no longer get past Rafa, Novak and Muzza, anywhere. Delpo, Tsonga and Berdych can blast him off a fast court on any given day, Ferru, Tsonga and Gasquet can grind him off on clay………..
So, he really would be best advised to follow the Verdasco example…………………
#DubsIsYourFriend
Yes, but Perry is a staunch Fedfan, of the most fair kind, I have to say. Until recently, he dreamt, along with many other Fedfans, that Roger is capable of one last hurray al a Sampras. The thing is, Fed HAD his last hurray at Wimby 2012. He and his fans just failed to recognize it, because, as everybody knows, goats live forever, lol!
rafaisthebest@November 13, 2013 at 1:14 pm
—If Rafa gets AO 2014 and FO 2014 he will get Wimby 2014 and complete the Rafa Slam.—-
Rafa has to make a choice between Wimby and the U.S. Open. If he damages his (left) knee in Wimbledon, it would be difficult to play well later at the U.S. Open.
Excerpt from Rafa’s interview on August 14, 2013:
RAFA: “My knee is healed, is working well for the moment. I felt more trouble on grass because the movements are less stable and I need to play lower than in the rest of the surfaces.”
little early for this kind of stuff????
It is, Ricky, it is! I’m surprized, that a journo of Doug Perry’s clout comes out with this stuff only a day after the WTF final. Must be acute withdrawal anxiety…
i’ll definitely be doing the same thing….
….but sometime in late December!!!
@augusta08, I am banking on Rafa’s knee continuing to improve so that he will not have to make such an unpleasant choice.
Well, that would be good timing, since we will have some withdrawal symptoms by then, and the new season is going to start within days. We will be ready for the astonishingly accurate predictions of Humano Dimon!
At the moment, I’m quite content to let tennis rest for a while The tennis season is long and mentally tiring for fans as well 🙂
still got 3 more days of the season, starting on Friday. Prediction coming from Humano Dimon on Thursday.
#PulpoPaul
@Humano Dimon: Looking forward to see Czech or Serbian fans swapping recipes for a delicious Dimon dish 🙂
LOL…not only has Mr.Douglas predicted the results of matches, he has also predicted how the DRAWS will pan out ! lol… Rafa getting beaten in the QF of wimb then delpo beating rafa at USO… anyway, I will be very happy if these predictions come true ! this would catapult rafa to 15 slams WOW…
Lol, he must own a cohort of tennis specialized octopussy.
@littlefoot 2:17 pm, maybe Doug Perry is not a so mellow Fedfan after all……………could be this is his way of delivering the unkindest cut to us Rafans, filling us with early hope (appearing to salve our collective hurt over the WTF loss) waiting to gloat as we spiral into deep despair should his predictions “go awry”!
Nah, Doug Perry is a good guy. More likely he tries to dampen the expectations of Fedfans, in order to cushion the blows. Though he burried a tiny poisoned arrow in in his predictions: Fed beating Rafa in Wimby quarters, lol! Even IF the draw will allow this, it won’t happen. Arrive Wimby, Fed won’t have beaten Rafa at a slam for 7 years running. Unless Rafa hurts himself badly before such a hypothetical match, it won’t happen in 2014.
But remember, predictions have zero influence on what will happen eventually. So, I don’t get high or low on predictions alone.
I don’t put much stock into predictions either. For me, they are fun conversation points, reflecting the confidence each predictor has about respective player’s games at a point in time, and yes, with a healthy dose of bias thrown in…………..
Littlefoot at 2:54: Doug Perry is the tennis columnist for my hometown newspaper so I read everything he writes. He is a Fedfan through and through and has, on several occasions, written things about Rafa that have raised the hair on the back of my neck. He writes for the Oregonian and here in Portland where it’s based, there aren’t a huge number of tennis fans, so there aren’t usually too many comments in response to his articles, but he has often been called out on his obvious Federer bias. He’s not a bad guy and has also written complimentary things about Rafa, but his columns almost always reveal his bias. He also frequently delivers those compliments in a way that mirrors Roger: somewhat back handed and too many times within the context of contrast to Roger’s achievements.
did you go to Davis Cup when it was there?
Ricky: Sadly, I did not. I had to be back East taking care of some things for my brother’s estate. In February, there’s an exhibition match being played here. Johnny Mac, Blake, Agassi and Courier will be playing. I’ll probably go to that. We don’t get much ATP high level tennis here. The closest big time tournament for me is Indian Wells and that’s over 1000 miles.
and that is NOT close
Thx ritb,
My comments or questions about Rafa’s serve were more general. Not this season, or end of season alone.
Other ‘lesser’ players (please nobody get kill me for this) such as Verdasco, Almagro, Gulbis… and so so many others, are able to produce many aces in every match.
This has always been a nightmare for Rafa, exceptions apart.
Indeed he has improved a lot, as in all aspects of his game (as Fedsmug would say) but, the question was.. why has it always been so difficult for Rafa? Is his mindset always intent on climbing walls?
The other day on the Spanish radio they asked him what he was most proud of this season and he anwered: ‘of being able to finish the whole season’.. I wonder if his knees are a factor … I guess not.
He could have made things so much easier for himself throughout his career with an all out serve 🙂
Wot? Wot? Discounting Andy at Wimbledon?????
#Pfui!
#MadnessLiesThere
shireling,
you’ll remember than until not many years ago, until perhaps as recently as his first USO trophy (3 years ago), Rafa’s serve was rather poor for someone in the, say, top 10, even top 20. Especially in the earlier years. Only in the last few years has it become a strong weapon albeit sometimes, alas, it is not there. I used to think this was in good part due to learning to play tennis with his non-dominant hand. He really does _everything_ else with his right hand, That the serve is the ‘stroke’ that requires the most refined and difficult skills of coordination, and thus was the toughest to refine with his non-dominant hand over many years of slow, patient, deliberate and endless practice. More recently I have been doubting whether this is the main explanation. I am at a loss. I read his biography a couple of years back but don’t recall this talked about.
Does any one of you have any thoughts on this?
DO YOU ? 😉
Since I’m a complete leftsider (write with my left hand, kick the ball with my left foot, put the phone to my left ear and look through a microscope with my left eye), I’ve put a lot of thought into the handedness, or, as I prefer to say, sidedness question. If I will come up with a long version, I probably should switch to the Rafa page. The short version is, that Rafa isn’t a complete rightsider, as he himself and UT have confirmed many times now. He kicks the ball with his left foot, which indicates, that his brain is differently organized than the brain of a complete rightsider. Up to a certain age he played tennis with both hands. Then UT told him to pick one preferred hand and stick with it. Rafa choose the left hand, and it turned out to be a good choice… except for his serve. The tricky thing is of course, that he lerned to serve with his right hand, when he started to play tennis at a very young age. So he had to start from scratch and learn again, when he decided to play lefthanded. And he certainly wasn’t a toddler anymore, but of school age, when that happened. When I was the same age, I hurt my left hand and had to learn to write with my right hand for a while, which was very difficult. So, with Rafa, it could simply be, that he never developd the same serving skills than those, who never switched. And that contributed to some insecurity as far as his serve is concerned. Remember, he never likes to start serving, but has to get into the match first.
thank you, littlefoot
makes a lot of sense. I did not remember Rafa was that ‘old’ when he switched. And rewriting is tougher, true. I had also never thought or heard mention before the now obvious fact that the serving motion is entirely determined by the player. I remember watching Rafa’s progress over the years and his problems with his serve were giving us a hard time, he was more prone to being broken. This is one of the reasons also why he had a harder time breaking through on surfaces where the serve matters more than on traditional clay, where the serve’s advantage is somewhat minimized. It is true: that he managed to get to the heights of skill of his serve when it is really devastating … by the age of about 24 is a testament to his learnability (a word that subsumes all kinds of attitudes and work). At the same time, what he managed to do over the years while serving poorly is also a testament to his learnability of all the other skills.
@chloro, never heard the word ‘learnability’. I like it a lot. I think, besides having a teeny weeny bit of talent ;), this learnability made Rafa great.
When I wrote my post I couldn’t see yours on my screen. I thought you had written that word ‘learnability’ :-). It is a word out there, I just had a look, but I am not sure it means ‘learning ability’ as you meant it, and that is indeed what Rafa has so much of. It is rare to witness someone do all it takes, with the humility of a devoted practitioner of a high art, to get so close to their possible best. You see it in some of the devoted artists, and other pursuits that require so much diligent, deliberate practice, and among them it is also quite rare. In the martial arts they same sometimes that to become good at it you need talent, a high quality teacher and lots of devoted practice, and that of the three only the first is dispensible.
chloro, it doesn’t matter, that Rafa does everything else with his right hand. When playing tennis, his left hand is dominant now. And, if you think about it, how many hours a day does he spend writing and tying his shoe laces vs all the time, he plays tennis? 😉
I think, what really hurts him, is the switch, he had to make for his serve, and the insecurities, that came with it. That would also explain some of his time wasting tics, he developed. And it makes sense, that his serve, which actually became quite good over the years, becomes a liability again, when he feels less secure.
Sorry: I had forgotten about kicking the soccer ball with his left foot.
You’re saying that Rafa switch to his left hand relatively late and thus the coordination of eyes, mind, neurology and muscle firing sequences started late. This would then be true for all the types of strokes he’s practiced and learned / mastered. Why is the serve the more vulnerable, the one that became good much later and the one that breaks down when he is not confident? Also why is it that he almost never hits more than a few aces in a match, at best? If we go by what you said then it might be along the same lines I’ve mentioned – and bear in mind I have not played tennis since I was a kid so I am just imagining – that the serve takes a higher level of coordination and finesse to be excellent. And finally, do you think it is impossible for a kid that started to play tennis for the first time at the age Rafa was when he switched sides to rise to the same level of excellence given the same intense desire, quality coaching, luck, number of hours and high quality of practice?
chloro, I think, the serve is a complicated stroke, and it’s the only one in tennis, which is determined by you only from beginning to end, which means, it’s processed differently in your brain than other strokes, where you have to make split second decisions, depending on what your opponent is doing. That’s, why the serve is more vulnerable to self doubts. When Rafa switched at the age of nine or ten, you can’t compare it with someone, who learns for the first time (though it would be awfully late for for trying to become excellent). It had to be rewritten in his brain, which is more difficult than learning something for the first time. It’s probably more difficult than with reactive strokes. That the whole thing was a success at all, is testament to Rafa’s learning abilities.
It would be possible to serve with the right hand and then switch to the left for the ROS, wouldn’t it? 🙂 Maybe U. Tony should look into this, lol.
Well since lot of predictions are going on regarding next year slams, I too would like to put in my 2 cents :
AO – Nole/Rafa depending in which half Muzza doesnt land.
FO – Nole. Yes, you heard it here first.
Wimby – It’s Muzza’s title to lose.
USO – Nole/Andy/Rafa all would have equal chances much depending on the draws.
As for Fed, he will make 2 semis at least. Which 2, I’m not sure.
i don’t see Murray have any impact on the outcome of the Australian Open.
Del Potro way more dangerous to Djoker or Rafa, and he could be met as early as the quarterfinals as opposed to the semis.
abhirf,
Nole for RG. Please elaborate. And do you agree that in 2013 Rafa played Novak while more vulnerable than other years other than the damaged knee RG in 2009.
Shireling@November 13, 2013 at 4:22 pm
—It would be possible to serve with the right hand and then switch to the left—
Rafa is almost ambidextrous, but his left hand is stronger. When U.Toni told him to choose his one hand (at the age of 9 – 10), Rafa preferred his left one because he felt it was stronger. His left foot his also stronger than his right one – he kicks football with his left foot. Probably he has to use his stronger hand to serve. 🙂
He plays billiards left-handed:
https://twitter.com/NeilHarmanTimes/status/382954855687401472/photo/1
Fed has often implied that Rafa being a southpaw is the reason for their uneven H2H. In his presser he referred to having to adjust to a left-handed player as a factor in his loss to Rafa at the O2.
Adjusting to a left-handed player does seem to bother Novak, nor other players who play very well against Rafa.
#AdjustingHardOnlyForGoats
Exactly. I’m not aware he has trouble with other leftie players.
#Excuses
More than Rafa’s serve was off on Monday. He hit short and his DTL FH was MIA.
Indoor tennis is for weenies anyways. Never liked it even as a Sampras fan.
#VamosRafa
#Humb1eHashtags
I agree about indoor tennis. I also never thought that the WTF was anything all that special. It’s like some tournament that is added on for the fans or revenue. Maybe bragging rights? But Rafa is the year end #1 and nothing can change that.
I think that Rafa fans want him to win something that he has not won just to shut up the haters and rabid Fed fans. But the simple truth is that even if he won this, then they would just say that Fed won it more, they would bring up the number of slams, the weeks at #1, the consecutive semifinal appearances. They always move the bar.
Yet now Rafa has won the Summer Slam, something that neither Fed or Djoker has done. At this stage of his career, Fed won’t ever do it. But Djoker is still in his prime. It remains to be seen if he gets it done. It has only happened three times. So what I am saying is that Rafa has records that Fed does not and that is what balances it all out. Even if Rafa should equal Fed’s slam total, the haters will just point to other achievements of Fed.
That’s why I don’t like his GOAT business. Each great champion has unique records and contributions. Pete Sampras had the most slams until Fed broke his record. But he never won the career slam. So there is always something missing if one wants to get picky.
NNY: Naturally all Rafans want the pleasure of seeing him add the WTF to his laundry list of achievements and part of the satisfaction will be when he proves the doubters wrong. Meanwhile there really is no point in fretting over what bitter and twisted Fedaddicts think or are saying on other sites. Thank goodness for the civilised level of debate that reigns at Tennisgrand.
i think its possible to have civilized debate while also having different opinions of different fanbases
thats what i hope to have happen in 2014
ed,
That’s why I have made a concerted effort to avoid those other tennis sites. I try not to participate in the endless GOAT debates that rage all over the place. It’s pointless.
Rafa seems to have taken his loss in stride. If he does manage to win the WTF, all well and good. But if he never wins this tournament, I don’t think it will matter given all of his records and achievements in this sport. He has already done more than enough to cement his legacy as one of the greatest to ever play the game. Anything else that he wins is just more icing on the cake.
I try not to get ahead of myself with predictions for 2014. The most important thing as far as I am concerned, is for Rafa to stay healthy. If his knees are okay, then everything else will follow.
––thats what i hope to have happen in 2014––
#TheTriumphOfHopeOverExperience
Ricky, I am having trouble posting as my usual username @rafaisthebest, what’s going on?………….
no idea. just post and i will approve it if it needs approval.
Testing……
now try it again
Testing…..hmmmmmm, why would the gremlins target me for this nonsense? Only @nadline is supposed to go through this, lol!
you are good now. It “forgot” you were a poster so I had to approve a comment. Now it “remembers” you.
#Snafoo
#Redfoo
Thanks Ricky, was already having palpitations at the thought of not being able to post on Tenngrand!
Pfft. Nothing compared to getting a post approved these days on Roger-X.com.
To be unmoderated there you either must be a fedfan fan or kiss up to him.
chloro,
Well its just my perception that has developed after watching the RG Semi b/w the 2. The way Rafa played in the 5th set of the match, I gotta admit, it was as if his life depended on it. Never seen Rafa play like that. To repeat that thing will take a lot of mental strength, and though I know that Rafa has it in plenty, he may just not be ready for it the next time. This season he was fresh physically and mentally. Same will not be the case next.
Moreover, Nole’s been getting close, just like he suffered those defeats by Fed at USO, before turning it on him. I think he has had his share at FO and will go all the way.
Nole would be cursing Fed as, if not for him, he would have had the RG title and Calendar slam to his name.
abhirf,
I don’t agree with this idea that Rafa was fresh. As I recall, many on TT were saying that Rafa had NO chance to defend his RG title because of the fact that he was just coming back from a seven month injury layoff. This would be the first slam Rafa played in a year. So the thinking was that Djoker had the advantage against a Rafa who was not going to be in peak form for RG this year.
As far as Rafa playing like his life depended on it in the RG semifinal this year, well all I can say is that he has done that in so many slam matches. That’s where his greatness truly shines. He is never better than when his back is against the wall. It brings out the best in him. He just was not going to lose that match. This is the quality that was missing in Rafa throughout 2011. I thought it was the key reason why he lost all those matches to Djoker. It is true that maybe Rafa had become too predictable and the new, improved version of Djoker that year was able to beat him.
We all know that Rafa found the answers in the 2012 AO final. Even in defeat, he had found a way to win. He was within two games of winning that match. He staged a magnificent comeback in the fourth round to even it up and force a fifth set.
Rafa found a way to beat Djoker and also found his formidable mental strength. That is the quality that separated them this year. There is no reason to think that Rafa will lose it in 2014.
You are free to make whatever prediction you wish and think what you like, but I know that Rafa will fight just as hard in 2014 to win RG as he did in 2013. As long as he is healthy, I am not going to bet against him. 🙂
abhirf@November 14, 2013 at 12:16 am
—he [Rafa] may just not be ready for it the next time. This season he was fresh physically and mentally. Same will not be the case next.—
That’s Fedfans hope to have happen in 2014! Their dream is: somehow to prevent Rafa winning GS titles. 😀
To say Rafa was fresh at FO 2013 is a bit disingenous. Rafa lost at Monte Carlo precisely because he was not fresh. Rafa even gave Novak a hard time in the final even if he lost. In fact he never played well all through the clay tournaments. It is testament to how good he is on the surface that he won a lot!
2013 is the year Novak should have run the table on clay, taking advantage of an un-fresh Rafa, he did not. You only have to look at Vegas to see what the market thinks of Novak’s chances at FO in 2014, zero to none.
Novak’s best opportunity to snag his 1st RG was 2013. Unlike Fed in 2009, he fluffed his lines. Just like 2009, 2013 had “special circumstances” written all over it.
abhirf,
you may be right. But do you remember that Rafa was not fresh. I mean he was weeks away from when his knee gave him too much trouble. And he was still coming back from a long period of trying many ways to recover that knee…. there was not a lot of practicing and getting into shape preceding Vina del mar a few short weeks before RG. This was seen also in MC. Good enough to make the final, but not in good enough shape to win against Novak. So all things being equal you have to expect Rafa to be in better shape at RG in 14 than in 13. If so he is very, very hard to beat, especially there. What is it that Novak has in his game that makes him more likely to beat Rafa at RG this time when Rafa can be expected to be in ok shape? I’m not saying he couldn’t, but it is tall task. There has never been someone as consistent on clay and at RG, not quite even Borg. That experience takes Rafa a long way each time he plays on the surface and at that tournament. I don’t doubt that Novak wants to win it badly, and especially should he be able to do it by beating Rafa there. Last year was his big chance. In 2014 we’ll see what shape they’ll be in. Novak has often lost points, games, sets and match this last year he had no business losing. I’d like to see him find ways to improve his game in new ways and find ways to regain the consistency of 2011.
If Del Potro is in Nole’s half , Nole may even lose in the semis.at RG. Nole is not invincible at RG even against the others . Witness his loss to Federer in 2011. abhirf assumes if Fed hadn’t beaten Nole, then Nole would have beaten Rafa in 2011. Considering Nole has never beaten Rafa at RG either before 2011 or after 2011, there is no basis for this assumption.
This is not to say that Nole will never beat Rafa at RG. If Soderling could do it, so can Nole. But abhirf cannot state with certainty as he does that Nole would have beaten Rafa in 2011 at RG.
But abhirf is a rafa hater so we can only expect such statements and predictions from him. I suppose with the abysmal standards set by Fed fans for themselves, abhirf despite his poison must be classified as one of the better Fed fans.
When Rafa won over Nole at Canada or at USO , did abhirf say he hoped to see more of this Rafa in 2014? No.
But when Nole won over Rafa at WTF he promptly expressed the pious wish that we would see more of this Nole in 2014.
Of course I cannot also forget how abhirf blatantly lied about having seen cases of mono in India during his clinical postings. As a matter of fact, as there are no public hospitals with diagnostic facilities for mono in India, no one has seen a diagnosed case of mono in India EVER let alone see a “few cases” during clinical postings.
abhirf lied about this In order to give credibility to the mono myth of Fed cooked up by Fedfans to discount Rafa’s amazing wins at RG and most of all at Wimbly in 2008.He only proved he is not a doctor or a medical student or if he is one, he must have studied in chr18’s school.
But compared to Sienna/seventeen or even scoretracker, I suppose we can say abhirf is ‘good’.
But the type of Fed fan I like is chr18. How I miss that guy!
I also miss Twinge (Muzz fan). And zare (Nole fan). Where are they? .
Holdserve,
Did I miss something? Didn’t Nole beat Rafa at Madrid and Rome that year and that too in straight sets and was the favorite to win RG too. If you didnt saw or hear it, it’s your fault or probably you are too delusional to accept this fact.
As for Mono case, I dont know whether you really have some relatives whom you claim to be health workers or whatever. It’s not my fault that they didnt get to see a Mono case in India.
And plz, you really dont know anything about India, so better be quiet there.
And didn’t I appreciate Rafa in IW for his new found hardcourt game and asked to see more of it. And haven’t above I have picked Rafa as a fav to win AO or USO. But no, you guys wont see it. All you want is baseless stuff to tag someone as a ‘Rafa hater’ esp Fed fans.
“To be unmoderated there you either must be a fedfan fan or kiss up to him.”
But why do Nole fans kiss up to Fed or his fans? Nole’s greatness is not going to be helped by Fed, Fed cannot stop Rafa, so how does Fed help Novak?
I can understand Fedfans kissing up to Nole and Nolefans, to encourage Nole to win as much as possible thereby stopping Rafa’s march towards GOATdom. So in this case, Novak does help Fed’s cause.
Simply because fedfan still has a minuscule winning h2h vs Nole and Nole is no threat to fedfan’s legacy the way Rafa is. Also federazzi cling desperately to the hopes that Nole can stop Rafa from GOATdom (too late) so there is little animosity between the two factions.
I get the sense Nole fans had convinced themselves that Novak 2011 was here to stay, without competition, he had smote a fatal would to Rafa’s psyche, and I for one think Novak believed this as well. Now I see history repeating itself with his (customary) post USOpen HC run. The jingoism is reaching fever pitch, forgetting that 2013 was a repeat of 2012, and we all know how that movie panned out……………………..
@ritb,
IMO, his MC loss was more due to lack of match play than due to tiredness.
@augusta,
It’s not my hopes. I for sure do know that Rafa will win at least 3 more GS titles. That can happen even next year.
@NNY,
wasn’t Nole too just 2 games away from winning at the FO this year. Isnt that supposed to give him the belief?
I know, it’s a foolish thing to bet against Rafa at RG. But I said what I felt.
And to make it clear to some of you, I dont give a damn whether Rafa passes Fed’s GS tally or not. I admire Fed for his brilliant game and the beauty of it, not for the records that he has set. Records are meant to be re created and they will change as the time passes by be it Laver, Bjorg’s, Fed or Rafa’s.
And I definitely dont have any hopes on Nole. There are only 2 players out there about whom I do have hopes – Delpo and Muzzer. With Fed’s decline it has become even more important to rise up.
@abhirf, I used the phrase “fresh/not fresh” to refer to his lack of match play, not tiredness. So to recap, Rafa was not tired, but lacked match play, was rusty i.e. not fresh.
abhirf,
Yes Djoker was two games away from winning. Nobody said the match was non competitive or that Rafa was out of it. However, I will say that Rafa was never behind in that match. It was on his racket in the fourth set and he couldn’t serve it out and lost in the tb. In the fifth set Djoker was up a break, but that’s when Rafa went to a whole other level. That was his mental strength coming into play. Djoker didn’t have the same mental will to counter it.
I think how Rafa ultimately won that match is more evidence of how different it was from 2011. It was the one quality missing for Rafa at that time. Djoker was the one who was mentally stronger and could get one break and close out a set or even the match. That losing streak forced Rafa to reevaluate his game and strategy and tactics against Djoker. In 2012 Rafa seemed to have found the passion for the game again. He found his mental toughness. That would turn out to be the difference.
I never said that Djoker didn’t have the belief in the 2013 RG. He obviously believed that he could beat Rafa at RG this year. But when all was said and done, Rafa was the player who came up with the great shots to get the break back and ultimately win. Rafa had the belief that he would still beat Djoker at RG. His will trumped Djoker’s and that’s why he won.
Well put, nny. But I believe you have to add to it that Nadal was still not match-hardened, as ritb wrote. Else it would likely not have been that close (at times) a match.
^ important ‘for them’ to
rise up.
abhirf,
I hope you don’t feel we are ganging up on you re nole/rafa predictions for RG 14. My reading of this is that
a) you may have a slight bias and missing seeing the factor or Rafa’s march-readiness and lack of peak fitness last spring and thus you read Nole’s performance relative to Rafa as an ascending curve similar to Rafa’s at Wimbledon versus roger in 2006-2008… In other words, were it not for match hardiness and peak performance, evolving skills, and renewed confidence towards Nole… then yes, you could read the last years as simply an ascending curve on Nole’s side, as if RG against Rafa is all on Nole’s racquet, ie only a factor of his own improvement. I think that this is where our comments back to you are coming from.
and:
b) we rafans, on the other hand, have no bias in the matter, not even a slight one 😉
“we rafans, on the other hand, have no bias in the matter, not even a slight one”
Hahaha, love it!
Isn’t funny though how fans go to pains to put together an “objective” argument to justify their prediction that their guy is going to win? Why not just say, hey, this is my biased argument, my favourite is going to win?
chloro,
I absolutely agree that Rafa was not match-hardened and believe that I did make that point in my earlier response to abhirf. 🙂
Re Rafa and Soderling at RG 09. There is only one male player on tour who could have gone that far into the tournament, AND held off an absolutely on-fire Soderling for as long with very injured knee(s) and a broken heart on top of that. That result says about Soderling only that he can play very well at RG but not in the league of a healthy Rafa or an in-form Roger or Novak, and that he played that much closer to his best when he realised that Rafa was hurt or at least well below his usual level. That result, though, says a lot more about Rafa.
There may be an RG in the future when Rafa is injured enough again, I really hope this will not happen. And there may be an RG in the future when Rafa’s age will have caught up with him and be more important than his late-career skills can compensate for… this may take several years yet and it is possible that he will decide to retire by then. I don’t think he will push his knee to the very end of its ability in the last years, especially if he starts losing more often. He mentioned that he loves the game and loves to win and that when he will stop when he is losing often.
But barring injury or exhaustion etc Rafa will be a very tough one to take three from at RG. We have seen this in the last 9 RGs. I think it is a tougher thing to do than defeating Roger in his prime at Wimbledon. The difference between fedal at Wimbledon in 07, 08, and 09 and novak / nadal at RG in 13 is clear: Nadal was not at his usual level of fitness and match-readiness yet, even with the matches he had played. Same for MC13. Power to Novak for taking MC when it was more possible, and the first one to defeat Rafa there in the last 9 years. And power to Novak for almost taking 3 sets from a below-par Nadal at RG in one of the two years this was more possible (09, 13). Now the goal – the real grail – is to do it with an in-form and un-injured Nadal.
I believe (and it is my sincere hope) Rafa is going to choose his battles going forward. So, don’t expect him to go hell for leather each and every match. He does not need to. He just needs to win those matches he needs to. I would suggest his priorities should be as follows:
All Slams;
Monte Carlo;
Other Clay M1000s;
Barcelona
At least 2 HC M1000s
Oh, and if he feels like it…………………WTF.
That’s my wish list for 2014………..very modest, eh?
abhirf, so far you have failed to mention the name of the hospital in India where you claim you saw a few cases of mono.
abhirf, assuming that Nole can beat Rafa at RG because he beat Rafa at Rome and Madrid is totally fallacious. Fed beat Rafa at some clay Masters but he could never beat Rafa at RG. RG is a slam and is a best of 5 sets.
RG is Rafa’s fiefdom and while he may not kill himself to win clay Masters just as Nole did not kill himself this year to win Rome and Madrid, so also Rafa prioritizes.
Naming the hospital will expose my identity. I ain’t doing that on a public forum. If your delusional sister and friends didnt got to see any, I cant help it. Whether you believe or dont, it’s none of my concern.
Chloro,
it does seem to be a ganging up thing, but that is bound to happen here. I don’t mind it.
And I know that the match will be on Rafa’s racquet, but so was Fed’s at Wimby and USO. Didn’t Rafa and Nole, respectively finally got the result in their favour?
To me, Nole just seems to have reached that point where he has suffered enough losses. Of course it’s not as saying that Rafa won’t win.
And there is another player (Delpo) who can challenge and probably beat both of them on clay, but I wont pit it on him anymore.
As of now, the slams seem to be divided amongst the 3, with each getting a slam and one of them will get the 4th.
Pity. Just when I thought Holdserve had turned over a new leaf I see he has reverted to type.
ed,
Yes, I agree. This is most unfortunate. When it gets personal, nobody wins.
@ed
I find it really depressing that for some xtreme Rafa fans, unless u r 150% pro Rafa the whole time, u r by definition “anti Rafa.” Stifles debate INMHO
In the same way xtreme Fed fans can’/wont get that u can think he was/is one of the most wonderful players ever ON court, yet don’t really like his OFF court persona. If u think like this u r labelled a “hater.”
In the same way, I love Nole’s play, although I do not like some of his antics on court, it doesn’t stop me liking him. But does seem to have calmed down a bit, thank goodness.
Of course Andy is perfect in EVERY way…..;)
Hi Abhirf,
I am enjoying this conversation with you. Perhaps I can summarize this way what I’ve been trying to say, as usual using too many words 😉
When you mentioned Fedal Wimbledon and then Novak/Federer… the thing about fedal Wimbledon is that Rafa’s skill on grass were getting close to Roger’s in 07 and with his fighting spirit thrown in he came close to defeating Roger then but, by his own account, he choked because of the magnitude of his first slam on grass and more so of defeating the undisputed King of Grass in a final. Hence those copies tears in the locker room afterward. Come summer 2008 Rafa’s grass skills were essentially on par with Roger, as unbelievable that must have seemed, as was clear throughout the entire five hours match. Rafa did not drop a serve and came close to winning in 3, then 4. After the 4th set’s break he told himself that he had not done anything wrong, was playing plenty well enough to win and so to put behind himself the disappointment of not closing it out in either of those sets, and just play well enough in the fifth to win.
When it comes to Novak and Rafa on clay at RG, we have not yet seen Novak play at Rafa’s level when Rafa was in essentially OK form. Last spring this was not the case. Rafa had not yet played enough tournaments and his knee, well I wonder because of what happened at Wimbledon. In other words, IF we see Novak play at Rafa’s level on clay at RG at a time when Rafa is in normal form then we can expect that a match between them there could go either way. This has not happened yet once, and will not necessarily happen this spring. I see nothing in Novak’s game evolving to the point that would put him today in the league that so-far is exclusive to two men: Borg and Nadal. Until that maybe happens one day Novak would prevail over Rafa in 5 sets on clay only under special circumstances.
I do agree that Nole doesnt have that kind of a game to dominate on clay, but he does have a game to win matches on all surfaces. His probably only weakness, the slice to his BH wont bother him much on the clay due to the bounce, his defence is what is needed to win on clay, he is mentally really strong. Rafa’s form will have a lot to say in thier match up. But I have a feeling that Nole will overcome these things. He will find a way through it.
abhirf, what a bogus argument!.
Thousands of students are trained at a teaching hospital. So how can naming it reveal your identity?. It is like saying that if I reveal I studied at Stanford, you can guess my identity. What a laugh!!!
Stop making yourself ridiculous and stop calling my sister or me delusional. Your claim that revealing name of hospital will reveal your id exposes you totally as a fake. ,.
You are ed’s pet but unfortunately for you she has not come to your rescue this time to support your false claims.
abhirf, having fully exposed your fake claim, I am not interested in listening to more of your lies.
Goodbye everyone till AO 2014.
Vamos Rafa!!!! Be healthy!!!!! Don’t ever lose to Nole again!!!!!
Ricky, how’s about a little moderation here? Be a shame to see the only fedfan fan on your site (and a fair minded one at that) bullied outa here. How about a no personal attacks guideline.
holdserve, I like how you defend Rafa on Roger-X but there’s no need to get personal. With that statement I just made, I think I’m still a Rafan but feel free to correct me.
Vamos abhirf.
abhirf can handle hisself/herself/itself just fine. That guideline goes without saying. I will (and already have) deleted any attacks that are out of bounds.
yeah, Ricky. Thanks for that. I can handle such stuff on my own.
@deucy,
Yeah, seems like if one likes Nole’s game or even urges him to play better, then he definitely must be a Rafa hater. I could never understand the logic behind it.
abhirf,
I have been on the receiving end of similar comments when I dared to stand up for Djoker about the ankle injury he had before the clay court season started earlier this year. My loyalty to Rafa was called into question. I decided that I did not have to defend myself as a Rafa fan anymore. I am going to say what I think and if somebody can’t handle it, then that’s their problem.
I know that you can handle yourself, but there is no reason for anyone to be personally insulted. I very much want you to stay here and keep on posting your thoughts.
deucy,
Your post @ 9:29 a.m. said so much of what I feel. I am concerned about stifling debate because some fear that they will be accused of being anti-Rafa. We were all able to differentiate between the real fans and the haters and trolls on TT. I do not believe that s a Rafa fan, I am therefore necessarily precluded from saying anything supportive or positive about any other player.
One thing I try to keep in mind – I never want to be guilty of doing to people what some terrible Fed fans do to Rafa fans and anyone who doesn’t worship their guy.
I respect Fed, but don’t like his arrogance and some of his comments, especially when he loses. I respect Djoker, but don’t like some of his antics and attitude on court.
You know that I have cheered for Andy in the past when Rafa wasn’t playing.
We have an abundance of riches with all the talent in the men’s game today. I don’t see anything wrong with appreciating it.
Thanx!!
I’m not going anywhere.
I doubt that waiving a flag for Nole, or any other player, is the cause for incurring his wrath.
It’s the fact that Abhirf is a medical student which touches a raw nerve in Holdserve and provokes attacks full of bile and bitterness.
#DisplacementBehaviour
Nice humour! 😉
Probably, some Fed fan broke her heart, maybe that’s why she is full of hatred for them 🙂
Or perhaps it was a medical student. Ha Ha
BTW: Your adversary is male.
abhirf: Just wanted you to know….I adore Rafa, maybe more than anyone should, but I also like Novak and respect and enjoy watching his game. I dislike it when he beats Rafa, but I know that when he does, it’s because he’s outplayed him. Rafa himself will admit that. Just as Rafa is fine tuning his game to beat Novak, Novak is doing the same to beat Rafa. To me, their rivalry is much more compelling than Rafa’s rivalry with Roger ever was, because so often, the outcome is truly in doubt. If both players remain healthy, the next few years should be very interesting as we will see both of them continuing to find ways to defeat each other. I will look forward to reading all of your comments about their matches.
exactly!
This years USO final was the biggest disappointment for me. I just couldnt believe that 2 players who really put up a great show in the 2010 final would put up such a dismal show when they have escalated their level of play to much greater heights.It felt like Nole again entered the pre 2011 period, and still dont know why Rafa lost the faith in his game that brought him laurels this hard court season. He again went on to play his usual defensive behind the baseline stuff.
I think that match alone showed that their matches will be a mostly see-saw ones. The 2 still feel really nervous seeing each other on the other side of the net. There maybe occassional dominant wins like Nole had in Beijing or Rafa had on clay last year. but it will always be tough to pencil in a favorite, Probably, the one with the momentum from previous tournaments will steal the win.
Abhirf,
you are right about all you wrote in this last comment I think. And you are right that Nole can and often will be a real challenge to Nadal on clay in good part because his defense is so strong (and because he has won so often in 2011 and since in hard matches that he has – often at least – the confidence that comes from such results repeated often). It is Nadal’s elite level on clay that makes him defending RG and most clay trophies still the expected result when more or less in his better, match-hardened form. The European wing of the claycourt season should be interesting. I expect Rafa to be passionate about winning MC again, for one, and same for RG. Should Nole defeat Rafa at MC if they meet there – and I don’t think he will – it would be a huge boost to his claycourt challenge of Rafa so I expect to be gunning for it. Before then we might have a very interesting AO if Andy and the two of them all reach the semis.
I’ll never forgive Fedfans who attacks Rafa. Never!
^^^^Be fair Gussie, some Rafans are also capable of pretty vitriolic attacks on Federer and his supporters. And all fans are adept at snide comments about the prowess (or lack of prowess) of their fav’s main rivals. That’s blogging for you.
I am allergic to some aspects of Djokovic behaviour and am prone to voicing my feelings which may offend his fans/supporters but I don’t set out to insult him.
What I detest is when it degenerates into fan warfare and vicious personal attacks on people because of whom they support. This is what ruined Tennistalk in the latter stages and why I rarely visit other sites.
So far, with the odd minor transgression, Tenngrand is a haven of civilised and enjoyable discussions.
#LongMayItLast
ed, u sure about that? Always thought “holdserve” was female.
Not 100% sure but fairly sure. Mind you, S/T claimed to be male but I was never convinced of that either. Whatever, I got into a dialogue around the time of the USO 2010 over Djokovic and the Egg and he claimed special knowledge gleaned from family members who were in the medical profession. The antipathy dates back to when I took him to task for accusing Abhirf of lying about being a medical student and said he should retract the accusation and apologise – hence the jibe about Abhirf being my pet. It was also after that he mounted the smear campaign that I was a a closet Andy fan and therefore had to be a fake Rafan. Male or female, he/she has the typical convoluted mind of an internet flamer.
ed251137 @November 16, 2013 at 11:55 am
—some Rafans are also capable of pretty vitriolic attacks on Federer and his supporters.—
It’s the response to Fedfans’ attacks against Rafa.
Point taken!
holdserve has been on really good here on TT until this last attack on abhirf
Never found anything to object in what I wrote on TT until one day s/he wrote something short but quite…well, racist, I thought and I called him/her on it with all of one sentence. Then I was immediately accused of being racist myself and thrown forever into the camps of fake rafans never to be trusted.
Having said that, I have greatly appreciated how good holdserve has been here on tenngrand and what s/he writes is usually illuminating.
I too have the same notion that Holdserve is a female. I think she mentioned it in an argument on TT!
Though she does post some great posts sometimes.