The seven-week clay-court buildup to the French Open picks up steam this week with the season’s first Masters event on the slow stuff. Monte-Carlo may not be a required tournament like other 1000-pointers, but the field remains a strong one…and it did not end up being depleted by the absence of Novak Djokovic. Instead, the world No. 1 has bounced back quickly from a sprained ankle and he will headline the proceedings along with eight-time champion Rafael Nadal.
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Where: Monte Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: If Djokovic’s ankle is good to go and holds up, the stage is set for another Djokovic-Nadal showdown in the title match. That’s because Nadal, at the mercy of the draw as the No. 3 seed, landed in Andy Murray’s half rather than that of Djokovic. If the seeds hold to form, Nadal would face Murray in the semis and Djokovic would go up against Tomas Berdych.
Of course there’s a long way to go before that stage, especially for the top-seeded Serb if he is not quite 100 percent. A tough top section also features Indian Wells runner-up Juan Martin Del Potro, Houston champion John Isner, and Delray Beach winner Ernests Gulbis. Isner and Gulbis have to face each other in a first-round blockbuster, with whoever emerges on a collision course with Djokovic for the third round. Del Potro has a difficult opening opponent in the form of Alexandr Dolgopolov and the Argentine could meet Milos Raonic in round three.
Nadal could not have asked with a friendlier path, starting with his placement in the bottom half. Additionally, the Spaniard’s nearest seed is a slumping Philipp Kohlschreiber and a possible date with a dismally out-of-form Fernando Verdasco in round two will not end in the same fashion as their 2012 encounter on the blue clay of Madrid. Potential quarterfinal adversaries for Nadal include Janko Tipsarevic, Gilles Simon, and Grigor Dimitrov. None should be able to provide any semblance of resistance on this surface.
At the bottom of the bracket Murray has some decent clay-court opposition nearby, including Stanislas Wawrinka and Houston runner-up Nicolas Almagro. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is also dangerous on the dirt (as a number of past Roland Garros five-setters suggest) even though it is his least favorite surface. In a wide-open section quarter of the draw, Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet will look to hold off potential charges from Marin Cilic and Kevin Anderson. Cilic opens with Horacio Zeballos and could run into Gasquet in the last 16, while Anderson is set for an intriguing first-rounder against fellow big-hitter Jerzy Janowicz.
First-round upset alerts: Horacio Zeballos over (9) Marin Cilic – Quick, who is the only player to beat Nadal this season? Well, that’s actually not a hard question since it was a famous win for Zeballos…but that doesn’t make it any less surprising. Cilic is no slouch on clay, so an upset here cannot be expected, but Zeballos is in with a chance against just about anyone on this surface.
Fabio Fognini over (15) Andreas Seppi – Just a week or so removed from being Davis Cup teammates against Canada, the two Italians will be staring each other down across the net. Seppi leads the head-to-head series 4-1 at the ATP level (including 3-1 on clay), but Fognini won their most recent encounter last season on the clay courts of Bucharest.
Martin Klizan over (14) Juan Monaco – Both Klizan and Monaco were in dismal form prior to last week, but they reached the semifinals of their respective tournaments (Klizan in Casablanca and Monaco in Houston). Monaco’s Monte-Carlo chances will benefit from not having been required to play a final on Sunday, but it is still a quick turnaround.
Hot: Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Nicolas Almagro, Milos Raonic, Ernests Gulbis, John Isner, Albert Ramos, Kevin Anderson, Jurgen Melzer
Cold: Janko Tipsarevic, Juan Monaco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Viktor Troicki, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Marcel Granollers, Radek Stepanek, Florian Mayer, Pablo Andujar, Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils, Albert Montanes
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet over Tomas Berdych, Rafael Nadal over Grigor Dimitrov, and Stanislas Wawrinka over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Semifinals: Djokovic over Gasquet and Nadal over Wawrinka
Final: Nadal over Djokovic
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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