Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

Absences are part of the story in the 2015 Davis Cup World Group first round. Among those not participating are Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka of defending champion Switzerland and the Czech Republic’s Tomas Berdych. One country with just about all hands on deck, however, is France. A loaded French squad is going up against Germany, while the United States vs. Germany is a rematch of last year’s opening round.

Germany vs. France

Where: Frankfurt, Germany
Surface: Indoor hard
Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jan-Lennard Struff, Benjamin Becker, Andre Begemann
France: Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau, Nicolas Mahut

If France wins its first-round tie and continues to field its “A” team while some other nations remain without their top players, it will be favored to win the Davis Cup for the first time since 2001. With a stellar singles lineup of Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils to go along with an establish doubles force featuring Julien Benneteau and Nicolas Mahut, the visitors are certainly expected to beat Germany.

Whereas Simon and Monfils are in fine form, Kohlschreiber is a horrendous 2-5 this season. Jan-Lennard Struff is 3-6 in 2015 (qualifying matches included) and has zero cup experience. Still, anything can happen in Davis Cup—especially when the underdog is playing at home. Kohlschreiber is capable of catching fire and winning a pair of singles rubbers, which is what he will have to do if Germany is going to have a chance.

Prediction: France 3, Germany 1

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United States vs. Great Britain

Where: Glasgow, Scotland
Surface: Indoor hard
United States: John Isner, Donald Young, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Great Britain: Andy Murray, James Ward, Dominic Inglot, Jamie Murray

There are no secrets out there between the United States and Great Britain, having just faced each other in 2014. The British side, which has home-court advantage this time around, knows it must steal either the doubles rubber or one of James Ward’s singles matches in addition to a pair of expected wins for Andy Murray. Team USA is well that aware that its best opportunity is to take care of business twice against Ward while also relying on the best doubles duo in the world—Bob and Mike Bryan.

Sam Querrey, whose upset loss to Ward last year on clay in San Diego proved to be the decisive moment of the tie, is replaced in 2015 by a healthy John Isner. The 6’10’’ American, however, has not been playing well this season. An in-form Donald Young is back on the team after reaching the Memphis semis and the final in Delray Beach. If Great Britain leads 2-0 following Friday’s action, this one is over. If it is 1-1 after one day, the tie will likely come down to Young vs. Ward.

Prediction: Great Britain 3, United States 2

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Australia vs. Czech Republic

Where: Ostrava, Czech Republic
Surface: Indoor hard
Australia: Bernard Tomic, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Lleyton Hewitt, Sam Groth
Czech Republic: Lukas Rosol, Jiri Vesely, Adam Pavlasek, Jan Mertl

Berdych and Radek Stepanek, who led the Czechs to consecutive Davis Cup titles in 2012 and 2013, are not on the team. Australia is without Nick Kyrgios. Advantage? Well, the Czech Republic is playing at home. But Lukas Rosol is an awful 1-5 this year and Vesely has cooled off since triumphing in Auckland. For the Aussies, Bernard Tomic is on the fast track back to the top 30 and Thanasi Kokkinakis is really starting to make a name for himself.

Australia should have a massive edge in doubles with Lleyton Hewitt and Sam Groth regardless of whom the Czechs send out there on Saturday. The host nation will likely have to beat Kokkinakis twice in singles and also score a win over Tomic. Don’t be surprised, though, if Tomic plays the hero role and ushers in a new era of Australian Davis Cup. He is quite simply the best player in this tie.

Prediction: Australia 3, Czech Republic 1

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Japan vs. Canada

Where: Vancouver, Canada
Surface: Indoor hard
Japan: Kei Nishikori, Tatsuma Ito, Go Soeda, Yasutaka Uchiyama
Canada: Milos Raonic, Vasek Pospisil, Daniel Nestor, Frank Dancevic

Japan vs. Canada is really the only tie in which both countries are at complete full strength (at least if you consider that Germany’s Tommy Haas has been out and Querrey’s recent back injury took him out of the running for a spot on Team USA. Of course, all that really matters is the health of Kei Nishikori. The newly-christened world No. 4 absolutely has to win both of his singles rubbers and probably even the doubles match.

That is easier said than done against Milos Raonic, Vasek Pospisil, Daniel Nestor and company. Nestor—and likely Pospisil if things are tied 1-1 after Friday—makes the doubles rubber a virtual lock for the Canadians. If that is the case, Tatsuma Ito would somehow have to upset either Raonic or Pospisil in singles. That would be a mostly impossible task on a fast indoor hard court in Canada.

Prediction: Canada 3, Japan 1

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In other ties, Kazakhstan hosts Italy, Argentina hosts Brazil, Serbia hosts Croatia, and Belgium hosts Switzerland.

Predictions: Italy 3, Kazakhstan 1 – Argentina 3, Brazil 1 – Serbia 3, Croatia 0 – Belgium 3, Switzerland 0

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!