Davis Cup quarterfinal competition will wrap up on Thursday in Malaga with a showdown between defending champion Italy and underdog Argentina. Nitto ATP Finals winner Jannik Sinner is expected to take the court for Italy.
Jannik Sinner (ITA) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (ARG)
What will Argentina do with its singles lineup? That is the big question heading into its quarterfinal tie against Italy at the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga, Spain on Thursday evening. Sebastian Baez is the highest-ranked Argentine, but he is the worst indoor hard-court player on the roster. However, Argentina can sacrifice Baez in the No. 1 singles spot against Sinner and put Cerundolo–arguably its best player–in a more winnable second match against either Lorenzo Musetti or Matteo Berrettini. Then again, there really isn’t much of a difference between Cerundolo and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. All things considered, probably the best idea is to put your best lineup on the court–which is Cerundolo and Etcheverry.
If that turns out to be the case, Sinner and Cerundolo will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers. Surprisingly, the head-to-head series is all tied up 2-2–with Cerundolo winning their most recent encounter 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-2 at the 2023 Rome Masters. Sinner, though, is 2-0 on indoor hard courts (7-5, 1-6, 6-3 at the 2022 Davis Cup Finals and 7-5, 6-3 two years ago in Vienna). The world No. 1 is on fire heading into this event, having triumphed at the Nitto ATP Finals without losing a single set. Count on Sinner prevailing with ease.
Pick: Sinner in 2
Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ARG)
Berrettini was a late addition to the Italian squad and could be the choice in the No. 2 spot, but the smart money is on Musetti. After all, Berrettini has been mediocre at best since playing well in the Davis Cup group stage immediately following the U.S. Open. Musetti, on the other hand, has been great pretty much all year long. The world No. 17 is 40-27 with three runner-up performances (Queen’s Club, Umag, Chengdu), a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics, and a semifinal run at Wimbledon.
If this is the matchup, it would be the first between Musetti and Etcheverry. The 39th-ranked Argentine is a solid 31-29 for his 2024 campaign but hasn’t done much of anything since the clay-court swing. He hasn’t won back-to-back matches since the U.S. Open, where he beat none other than Cerundolo in round two before falling to Alexander Zverev. Musetti is the superior all-court player and should be able to take care of business indoors.
Pick: Musetti in 3
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