Davis Cup Finals preview and predictions: Nadal, Spain on final collision course with Italy

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The Nitto ATP Finals ended on Sunday with Jannik Sinner’s victory over Taylor Fritz, but the tennis season isn’t over quite yet.

In fact, one of the biggest stories of the year is still to be written: the official retirement of Rafael Nadal.

Nadal will say goodbye to tennis in front of the home crowd at the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga, Spain, where the festivities take place from Tuesday through Sunday. The Spaniards are bidding for their seventh title and their first since 2019, but they could be challenged by the likes of defending champion Italy, 2023 runner-up Australia, and 2022 winner Canada.


Davis Cup Finals

Where: Malaga, Spain
Dates: November 19-24
Surface: Indoor hard

Draw analysis: Italy and Spain are the top two seeds–and for good reason. Fortunately that means they are on different sides of the bracket, setting up a potential final showdown.

Italy is absolutely stacked as it attempts to go back-to-back. Fatigue should not be a factor for Sinner even though he just triumphed at the year-end championship. He also reached the final in Turin last year and still had no trouble getting right back in gear to dominate at the Davis Cup Finals. Joining the world No. 1 on Team Italy are Lorenzo Musetti, Flavio Cobolli, and doubles players Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori.


Spain has the best draw in the bottom half, facing the Netherlands in the quarterfinals before possibly meeting either Canada or Germany. The Canadians are missing Felix Auger-Aliassime, while the Germans are without Alexander Zverev. On the other hand, the host nation is fully loaded with Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz, Roberto Bautista Agut, and also Marcel Granollers for doubles.

If it isn’t an Italy vs. Spain showdown in the final, Australia may be the one to crash the party. No team loves the Davis Cup more than the Aussies, who finished runner-up last year and have the personnel to make another go at the title. They haven’t won it since 2003, but Alex de Minaur, Alexei Popyrin, Jordan Thompson, and Max Purcell may have something say about that for captain Lleyton Hewitt. A huge matchup between the top two winningest nations in Davis Cup history–the United States and Australia–looms in the quarters.

Quarterfinal picks: Italy over Argentina 2-0, Australia over United States 2-1, Germany over Canada 2-1, Spain over Netherlands 2-0

Semifinals: Italy over Australia 2-0, Spain over Germany 2-0

Final: Italy over Spain 2-1

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