Davis Cup final preview and pick

Djokovic practicing in Miami

In 2012, Spain was missing Rafael Nadal and lost the Davis Cup final to the Czech Republic. Fast forward 365 days and the Czechs are again contesting the title tie against an undermanned opponent.

Serbia may not be dealing with an absence of Nadal’s magnitude, but it is without both Viktor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic. Troicki is serving a drug-related suspension and Tipsarevic, who is 1-5 in his last six matches, is sidelined with a heel injury.

Czech Republic vs. Serbia

Where: Belgrade, Serbia
Surface: Indoor hard

Czech Republic: Tomas Berdych, Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, Jan Hajek
Serbia: Novak Djokovic, Dusan Lajovic, Nenad Zimonjic, Ilija Bozoljac

Draw

Radek Stepanek vs. Novak Djokovic
Tomas Berdych vs. Dusan Lajovic
Jan Hajek and Lukas Rosol vs. Ilija Bozoljac and Nenad Zimonjic
Tomas Berdych vs. Novak Djokovic
Radek Stepanek vs. Dusan Lajovic

How they got here

Czech Republic
d. Switzerland 3-1 in Geneva, Switzerland
d. Kazakhstan 3-1 in Astana, Kazakhstan
d. Argentina 3-0 in Prague, Czech Republic

Serbia
d. Belgium 3-0 in Charleroi, Belgium
d. United States 3-1 in Boise, United States
d. Canada 3-2 in Belgrade, Serbia

Analysis

With each team’s top player facing the other country’s second man (as always), this Davis Cup final should be knotted at 1-1 after the first day of singles action. Serbia will like the fact that Djokovic is up first and can snag the early momentum for the host side. The world No. 2 is 8-1 lifetime against Stepanek and has won seven in a row in the head-to-head series. Stepanek won two hard-court Challenger events this fall, but he is in a relative slump at the ATP level. Berdych should have no trouble evening the score in the second rubber. Lajovic actually registers at a decent 117th in the rankings, but he lacks pressure-packed Davis Cup experience. The 23-year-old is just 1-0 lifetime in the competition, with a victory in a dead singles rubber (6-4, 6-4 over Sweden’s Filip Prpic in 2012).

Doubles is often critical in Davis Cup, and this final should be no exception. Rarely does one tie feature such obvious favorites in all four singles matches; Serbia will almost certainly win Djokovic’s two rubbers and it will be a considerable underdog in the other two. As such, the winner of Saturday’s doubles showdown (assuming it is 1-1 heading into it) is in the catbird seat to hoist the trophy one day later. Djokovic will be an option for Serbia given the importance of the match, but Bozoljac has proven his worth with Zimonjic. Bozoljac turned in an incredible performance as the pair stunned Bob and Mike Bryan 7-6(5), 7-6(1), 5-7, 4-6, 15-13 during Davis Cup quarterfinal action back in April. In the semis two months ago, Bozoljac and Zimonjic lost a heartbreaker to Canada’s Daniel Nestor and Vasek Pospisil 6-7(6), 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5), 10-8. Those experiences, combined with home-court advantage in the form of a raucous Serbian crown, may help them overcome a formidable doubles duo in Berdych and Stepanek.  Hajek and Rosol are currently nominated, but that is not happening unless Stepanek somehow upsets Djokovic on Day 1 and the Czechs hold a 2-0 lead heading into doubles.

If the tie goes five, the visitors will have an edge with Stepanek going up against Lajovic. Stepanek has contested six decisive fifth singles rubbers, including four since the start of 2007. The 34-year-old most recently won the clinching match of the entire 2012 competition, beating Nicolas Almagro of Spain in four sets. But it may not get to Stepanek. If Serbia takes the doubles point and leads 2-1, Djokovic can wrap up the title against Berdych. Djokovic is dominating their head-to-head series 14-2, including 12-0 on hard courts.

Predictions

Djokovic over Stepanek in 3
Berdych over Lajovic in 3
Bozoljac/Zimonjic over Berdych/Stepanek in 5
Djokovic over Berdych in 3

Serbia 3, Czech Republic 1

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

85 Comments on Davis Cup final preview and pick

  1. [Penultimate paragraph, last line] “Berdych somehow upsets Djokovic on Day 1” ?

    You mean ‘Stepanek’.

    Also, upsets notwithstanding, I’d rather Tomas/Radek play on Saturday – they stand a better chance of winning that tie as opposed to Rosol/Hajek.

  2. The Serbian team is wearing kit with prominent Tacchini logos, including Djokovic. I have never seen Rafa wearing anything but Nike logoed kit, in Spanish colours of course, when playing DC. Does this mean different sponsors react differently to this sort of thing?

    • NID

      Even though it is not his forte and he and Zimo lost to Step and Berdy the last time they played DC doubles. It will be a close call. Stepanek is less potent in doubles these days and was the weak link in the partnership with Leander at the WTF.

  3. I’m having second thoughts. If the Bozoljac/Zimo pairing were able to beat the Bryan Brothers on their home ground on a hard court in the QFs it is possible the Serbs might conserve Djokovic for the confrontation with Berdych. Although unlikely, short of an injury, that a tired Berdy would be capable of causing an upset, they might play save by keeping Djokovic fresh for the encounter.

    #AlternativeScenario

  4. Contrary to expectation, they are not using Djokovic for the doubles. So I came to the right conclusion albeit possibly for the wrong reasons 🙂

    We shall see, no?

  5. Whatever the Serb rationale, Djokovic will be that much fresher against Berdych which reduces the chances of Berdych springing a nasty surprise.

  6. I think this is the best hand the Serbs could have played. Steps and Berdy are a formidable dubs team. Nole-Zimonic could have beaten them but that would have been a battle which could have depleted Novak too much, making him fair game for a Berdy singles upset.

    Berdy-Steps will win the dubs, Novak will beat Berdy and the decider will be the 5th rubber. I am not sure Steps will pull it off. The young Serb he will play has got game, he will be fresher and all he has to do is make Steps run……………..

  7. So it will fall to Steps. I know he is 34 but he is a wily old bugger and Davis Cup brings out the best in him. It will be a fight to the death. My money is going on Steps to be the hero of the day.

  8. I think the Davis Cup format would be even more exciting if teams were allowed substitutions, a la soccer, mid-match…………….

  9. The commentator has just voiced what I said earlier. Stepanek was not at his doubles best last week but he’s playing his little socks off today.

  10. Time to nail my colours to the mast: I am rooting for the Czechs because I do not want Novak to benefit from the filip a win would give him….

    • I could give several reasons why I am too 😉

      Berdy has not really pulled his weight. Hope it’s because he is holding back and leaving Steps to do what he is best at.

      • ed and RITB, pencil me in as well in the Czech cheerleader squad. For all the immature reasons alluded to above 🙂 Someone has to stop the Nole fraight train lol! Though, my feeling is, that a Czech DC win tomorrow, while a very likely outcome, by itself won’t do the trick. Only a win of BigBerd, a very UNlikely result, would halt the momentum of the Djoker.

  11. I don’t think Novak playing would have made much difference to the outcome, frankly. All that would have done is to paly further into the Czeck’s hands by tiring Novak out………

  12. Hi, a bit late to the DC party. I needed some time out from tennis… and commenting as well, lol!
    So far all three setters…. no epic fights. That might change tomorrow, when Djoker and Berdych clash. I have a soft spot for BigBerd ever since his hilarious twitter exchanges with pseudofed… epic, as Ricky would probably say. And someone just has to stop this rollerball in form of a tennis player, lol! So, go for it BigBerd, and don’t leave it to Steps to have to play the hero. But the cards look good for Radek and Tomas. Even, if Djoker gets his 24th win, it might not be enough for Serbia. The absence of Tipsi and Troicki will probably cost Serbia the title.

    • Fully agree! While there might have been mistakes from the doctor, it was Troicki’s refusal to give a sample, which sparked the whole incident in the first place. He got his penalty reduction, because the officials MIGHT have made mistakes (we will never know for sure), and that’s it. End of story. Nole should let it go, for crying out loud!

  13. @ed
    Apparently Nole doesn’t want the WTF to be at the O2 either! Does he expect me to fly to the other end of the world to cheer Andy?
    #Shocking

      • Lol ed., probably! And what’s with Serb players and flamboyant specs? Look gr8 but don’t they restrict peripheral vision? Would’ve thought contact lenses are better.

      • Funny you should mention that. I barely recognised Tipsy yesterday. He is actually quite handsome without those stupid glasses. Do you remember when he was wearing that weird contraption like an anti-snoring device to aid his breathing?

  14. ed251137@November 16, 2013 at 4:29 pm
    —I could give several reasons why I am too [rooting for the Czechs]—

    I have only one reason: I am a Rafa fan.
    I don’t want Djoko to earn ranking points and narrow the gap with Rafa in the rankings.

  15. The single biggest change in Djokovic’s game is his serve. Was a time when it was a liability. Now it’s become a lethal weapon (amongst many others). Reckon this will be a straight set win for Serbia.

  16. During Berdych’s (!) match, British commentators didn’t forget to mention that Rosol defeated Rafa. I haven’t heard them hailing Berdych’s victories over Federer at the 2004 Olympics, 2010 Wimbledon and 2012 US Open.

      • begs the question, why bring up that match with one injured player over and over, and in particular during today’s match? Did Berd play in that match? Nope. Did Novak? Nope. Were they speculating that Berd might cause an upset given that Novak’s knee is really shot? Nope. Could they have instead talked about matches when Berd caused an important upset, or would that be too relevant 🙂 ?

  17. PHENOMENAL response by Djokovic since the USO final… 24 match win streak is it? He is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment…

    Davis cup indeed is a ‘team effort’. Nole cant win it single handedly …Steps is gona take it

  18. Since everyone is over here on this thread, just wanted you to know that in Rafa’s thread, I’ve posted a link to his match with David today.

  19. Had to go out mid-way in the 2nd set of the first match but the result was NID. Berdy did well to keep it as tight as he did.

    Quite an ordeal ahead for the young Serb. Step is showing signs of feeling the pressure too.

  20. One of the great things about DC is the way young players get the chance to play on the big stage against higher ranked players they might otherwise wait years to meet on the ATP tour.

  21. If you’ll pardon me for a moment I”ll borrow an expression from Mr. Jawdropper: You HAVE to be KIDDING me the way Steps is playing. He’s using every trick in the book. For years he has cut a somewhat comic figure in his dreadful shirts and baggy shorts but he has always scaled new heights when he plays Davis Cup but, at just a few days short of his 35th birthday, this must surely count as his finest hour.

  22. What appalling manners by the Serb spectators who are leaving in huge numbers before the presentation ceremony. An insult to their own players as well as the height of discourtesy to the Czecks.

  23. Congrats to Steps!

    In 3 months’ time, when Rafa will have been back on tour for 12 months, how many points ahead of Novak will he be to you think? (It can’t be less than now as he is defending zero points until then.)

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