Citi Open preview and predictions

The Citi Open in Washington, D.C. is not an official part of the U.S. Open Series, but it does kick off the American hard-court swing in advance of the season’s final Grand Slam. And even though this busy summer schedule also includes the Davis Cup quarterfinals and the Olympics, D.C. still boasts a strong field. Three-time runner-up John Isner is the No. 1 seed ahead of Gael Monfils, Bernard Tomic, Benoit Paire, Jack Sock, Alexander Zverev, Sam Querrey, just to name a few.

Citi Open

Where: Washington, D.C.
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,629,475
Points: 500

Top seed: John Isner
2015 champion: Kei Nishikori (not playing)

Draw analysis: Isner will have only one thing on his mind this week: the title. Anything less would be a bit of a disappointment, given that he has been second best at this tournament three times and is coming off solid showings at the French Open (fourth round) and Wimbledon (third round, lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 19-17 in the fifth set). So the 6’10’’ American should not worry whom he has to face and when he has to face them in D.C. For whatever it’s worth, though, Isner’s draw is not a great one. An in-form Steve Johnson is a possible quarterfinal opponent and potential semifinal adversaries emerging from a loaded second section of the bracket include Tomic, Sock, Grigor Dimitrov, and Ivo Karlovic.

Familiar foes Dimitrov and Sock are on a collision course for the last 16. Dimitrov picked up a couple of much-needed wins at the All-England Club and could open in D.C. with fellow third-round Wimbledon performer Daniel Evans. Sock awaits either Lukas Lacko or Denis Shapovalov, who is competing in an ATP-level event for the first time in his career. Karlovic’s first match of the week may come in the form of a huge-serving affair with Sam Groth.

A softer bottom half could benefit Querrey, who is coming off well-documented Wimbledon heroics at the expense of Novak Djokovic. After stunning the world No. 1 in round three, Querrey eventually reached a major quarterfinal for the first time. The American’s nearest seeds in D.C. are Monfils, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Borna Coric, all of whom are in less than daunting form at the moment. Paire and Kevin Anderson are also slumping, so the door could also be open for seeds such as Zverev and Gilles Muller. Zverev’s breakout on tour in 2015 featured a quarterfinal run at this tournament, with three-set upsets of Anderson and Dolgopolov along the way. The 19-year-old German took a late wild card into this year’s event after losing surprisingly early this past week in Hamburg.

First-round upset alerts: (WC) Frances Tiafoe over Adrian Mannarino. As one of the most promising young Americans who grew up not far from D.C., Tiafoe naturally snagged a wild card into the main draw. Mannarino is in decent enough form this season, but is not much more than solid player who rarely beats himself. If Tiafoe plays up to his undeniable talent, this is a winnable match.

(WC) Dennis Shapovalov over Lukas Lacko. Both of these guys made some noise at Wimbledon. From pretty much out of nowhere, Lacko reached the third round as a qualifier before falling to Marin Cilic. Shapovalov captured the singles title and finished runner-up in doubles with fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime. This is a big opportunity for Shapovalov to maintain momentum with his first ATP-level match victory.

(PR) Brian Baker over Sam Groth. Baker finally picked up his first ATP-level win since the summer of 2013 when he beat Austin Krajicek in Newport. Groth has been a disaster this year, with a 4-13 record. The big-serving Australian is dangerous on grass, but his confidence has to be extremely low and Baker’s best shot is arguably his return of serve.

Second-round upset alerts: Yen-Hsun Lu over (2) Gael Monfils. Monfils got off to a hot start in 2016 but additional injuries and an illness that sidelined him from the French Open have put a dent in his progress. Lu’s comeback from physical problems of his own has picked up recent steam on the Challenger circuit.

Ivan Dodig over (14) Gilles Muller. Both of these veterans will be making quick turnarounds after enduring different kinds of workloads this weekend. Dodig kept Croatia alive in its Davis Cup quarterfinal tie at the United States by teaming up with Cilic to beat Bob and Mike Bryan. Muller’s grass-court surge continued with a run to the Newport final (vs. Karlovic on Sunday).

Vasek Pospisil over (16) Borna Coric. Pospisil has been an unmitigated disaster in 2016, and really ever since soaring to the Wimbledon quarterfinals last summer. The Canadian is a horrendous 5-17 in 2016 and—adding insult to injury, or vice versa—he withdrew from Newport due to a back injury. But, if healthy, this is winnable. Coric has been stuck in neutral this season and he got destroyed by Isner in Davis Cup action on Friday.

Hot: Steve Johnson, Sam Querrey, Gilles Muller, Stephane Robert, Daniel Evans, Denis Shapovalov

Cold: Gael Monfils, Benoit Paire, Kevin Anderson, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Grigor Dimitrov, Tim Smyczek, Sam Groth, Vasek Pospisil

Quarterfinal predictions: John Isner over Steve Johnson, Jack Sock over Bernard Tomic, Alexander Zverev over Ivan Dodig, and Sam Querrey over Borna Coric

Semifinals: John Isner over Jack Sock and Alexander Zverev over Sam Querrey

Final: Isner over Zverev

[polldaddy poll=9471903]