Citi Open preview and predictions: Will Nadal win in his debut?

The 2021 Citi Open is already being dominated by one headline and one headline only: Rafael Nadal is making his debut appearance in the district.

Having skipped the grass-court swing, Nadal could use some match practice with the U.S. Open just four weeks away. Thus the 35-year old has made the trip to Washington, D.C. for this 500-point tournament. He is joined by a strong field that also includes Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, Jannik Sinner, Sebastian Korda, and Nick Kyrgios.

Citi Open

Where: Washington, D.C.
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,895,290
Points: 500

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Nick Kyrgios

Draw analysis: Nadal will play his first-ever match in Washington, D.C. against either Jack Sock or Yoshihito Nishioka. The 20-time Grand Slam champion should not have much trouble in that opener, nor should he against either Lloyd Harris, Tennys Sandgren, and James Duckworth in the round of 16. A red-hot Cameron Norrie could offer more problems in the quarterfinals, although Norrie may have some trouble of his own against either Alexander Bublik, Kei Nishikori, or Sam Querrey in his second match. Also in the top half of the bracket are Dimitrov, Kyrgios, Los Cabos and Atlanta finalist Brandon Nakashima, and Los Cabos and Atlanta semifinalist Taylor Fritz.

Fewer players on the other side of the draw are in great form. Sinner has struggled since the French Open, de Minaur missed the Olympics because of a positive Covid-19 test, and both Auger-Aliassime and Frances Tiafoe are hoping to bounce back from first-round exits in Tokyo. Korda is in the midst of a stellar 2021 campaign, but the 20-year-old has played a ton of tennis and clearly wore down physically during an infamous Wimbledon fourth-round match in which he was broken seven times in the fifth set alone by Karen Khachanov (the Russian won 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 10-8). Emil Ruusuvuori, Jordan Thompson, and Kevin Anderson are unseeded floaters who could take advantage of opportunities.

Hot: Cameron Norrie, Sebastian Korda, Brandon Nakashima, Jenson Brooksby, Ilya Ivashka

Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Jannik Sinner, Benoit Paire, Nick Kyrgios, Vasek Pospisil, Alexei Popyrin, Jack Sock

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Cameron Norrie, Taylor Fritz over Ilya Ivashka, Emil Ruusuvuori over Alex de Minaur, and Felix Auger-Aliassime over Reilly Opelka

Semifinals: Fritz over Nadal and Auger-Aliassime over Ruusuvuori

Final: Fritz over Auger-Aliassime

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Who will win Washington, D.C.?

29 Comments on Citi Open preview and predictions: Will Nadal win in his debut?

  1. I’ll be a bit surprised if Rafa wins his first hc tournament since the AO, but I don’t see him losing to either Fritz or FAA… Dimitrov can give him trouble if he’s playing well.

  2. Id be surprised if he won at this stage of his season and career…esp if its a slick hard court which Washington usually is

  3. Fritz over Nadal? Don’t see that happening. Felix over Emil? I don’t think Felix will get that far. He is a good talent, but the way I see him on the biggest matches, he always seems to be scared. Needs to learn that killer instinct and I just haven’t seen it yet.

  4. It’s a valid question, but after some further investigation, the answer becomes clear.

    Nadal could beat most of this field playing at 75% of his current potential and won’t be challenged early enough in the event for the upset to happen.

    Nadal is too good at perfecting his game and building momentum, and that’s the reason he’s one of and if not the greatest of all time.

    Plus, he’s well-rested and had plenty of time to reflect on his body, its limitations, why he lost RG and what he needs to do to going forward to perform at his very best.

  5. If you go through the draw, I think you’ll find a reason why each of the possible contenders can’t win. Nadal needs to be below his best, and some other player has to be at their best. I’m not seeing that with any player in the draw. FAA could possibly give him match in the final but Nadal will probably have improved too much by that time.

  6. Some people’s views change with the wind. During the clay season it was “I’m not willing to back against Nadal just yet”. He loses one match against the number one player in the world that played one of his best matches in years and now all of a sudden a well-rested Nadal can’t beat an ATP500 field.

  7. Same thing happened with Berrettini; couldn’t win a clay court match apparently to all of a sudden becoming the “always was and still is the biggest threat to Djokovic at Wimbledon”.

  8. Nadal looks in vacation mood and he needs competitive matches to get into the groove. He’s probably not physically fit enough just yet, but since the surface is fast and the format is 2/3 sets he can probably manage it. That being said, it’s possible that he’s rusty and at some point he meets an opponent which has a very good day, but it’s neither likely nor unlikely.

    On the other hand Rafa probably doesn’t want to play 3 finals in 3 weeks so it’s probably better for him to lose rather early in DC.

    I think that most likely Nadal will win the Citi open and play the final in Canada then skip Cincinnati.

    • I dont see why physical fitness should be a factor for Nadal since he hasnt played competitively .Hasnt he been practising/training ? This tournament is best of three sets and on fast hardcourt rallies will be short.Its more mental rust he needs to remove.

    • Heh. Almost too well! That match had everything: great, awful and everything in between! I enjoyed it, even though I was convinced Rafa was going to lose it when he went down a break in the 3rd. Even when Rafa broke back I didn’t think he’d win the tb since Jack can hit big serves and big shots and Rafa’s serve had varied from ok to awful during most of the match.

      Rafa admitted to still having foot problems but hopes to “do something” about it. (That’s from the little post match interview on Tennis Channel).

  9. Rafa was rusty. He pretty much let Sock back in the match. Rafa was making a lot of errors and his serve went south again.

    I thought he was going to lose the match. His foot started bothering him. He was down a break. I don’t know if it was the crowd that lifted him but he got it together and broke back. The reaction from Rafa and the crowd said it all. They had signs up saying – we love you Rafa. At the start of the match a girl called out – we love you Rafa. After the match Rafa was interviewed by the tennis channel and said the energy from the crowd was unbelievable. Then he blew Sock away in the tiebreak.

    Sanju, Rafa would not aggravate the injury. You should know that. He said after the match he hoped to be ready for his next match. You get upset when he doesn’t play and when he does play. Now we know why he couldn’t play at Wimbledon.

    Rafa is not going to make the injury worse. He would not have come if he wasn’t okay to play.

  10. Sock is dangerous with that whippy forehand. If you’re having a bad day I could see that shot causing a lot of problems for even the top players.

    Nadal wasn’t entirely comfortable out there but he showed tenacity and i think the crowd was supportive rather taking advantage of the fact that knew he was vulnerable.

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