Cincinnati QF previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Carreno Busta, Rublev vs. Paire

Fellow Russians Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev are on a collision course for the Cincinnati semifinals. They have a couple of roadblocks in their way on Friday in Pablo Carreno Busta and Benoit Paire, respectively.

(1) Daniil Medvedev vs. (7) Pablo Carreno Busta

Medvedev may be the top seed and a considerable favorite, but he will be the one looking for revenge when he goes up against Carreno Busta in the Western & Southern Open quarterfinals on Friday. They just faced each other at the Tokyo Olympics, where Carreno Busta pulled off a 6-2, 7-6(5) upset en route to the bronze medal. Overall, Medvedev still leads the head-to-head series 3-2–although the Spaniard holds a 2-0 edge on outdoor hard courts.

This one should set up more favorably for Medvedev than the Olympic matchup. The second-ranked Russian is handling the conditions much better in Cincinnati–where he is a former champion (2019)–than in Tokyo and he also has momentum from last week’s Toronto title. Medvedev should have plenty left in the tank because he easily beat Mackenzie McDonald (6-2, 6-2) and Grigor Dimitrov (6-3, 6-3) in the early rounds of the Cincinnati Masters. Carreno Busta is coming off straight-set wins over Dominik Koepfer and Hubert Hurkacz. The world No. 12 cannot be taken lightly, but it’s hard to bet against Medvedev based on his current form and the setting.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

(4) Andrey Rublev vs. Benoit Paire

Rublev and Paire will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers (first time at the ATP level) on Friday. Their only previous meeting came five years ago on the hard courts of the Mouilleron Le Captif Challenger, where Rublev prevailed 6-3, 7-6(13). The Russian is a huge favorite now, having climbed to seventh in the rankings by racking up titles left and right plus some Grand Slam quarterfinal results over the past two years. Rublev has improved to 39-13 this season with Cincinnati victories over Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils.

Without question one of the worst players on the main tour in 2020 and the first half of 2021, Paire has suddenly found his form. The 50th-ranked Frenchman advanced to a pair of clay-court quarterfinals after Wimbledon and now improbably finds himself in the quarters of a Masters 1000 event following defeats of Miomir Kecmanovic, Denis Shapovalov, and John Isner. It’s hard to see Paire stringing together four wins in a row–especially with a fourth coming at the expense of an opponent like Rublev. A steady diet from the 23-year-old’s forehand directed at Paire’s shaky forehand should be a recipe that results in a mostly straightforward affair.

Pick Rublev in 2