Olympic years always wreak havoc on the U.S. Open Series draws, and it remains to be seen what kind of damage is done to the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati. Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Kei Nishikori all lasted the entire week in Rio de Janeiro, where Nadal played a total of 11 matches while capturing gold in doubles before missing the podium by one spot in singles.
Will any or all of the aforementioned three pull out? If so, they would join Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on the sidelines; Djokovic, who lost to Juan Martin Del Potro in round one of the Olympics, is now out with a wrist injury and Federer will miss the rest of the season due to a knee issue. Needless to say, the door is wide open for a whole host of contenders in Cincinnati.
Western & Southern Open
Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $4,362,385
Top seed: Andy Murray
2015 champion: Roger Federer (not playing)
Draw analysis: Who knows how this draw will look by the time second-round action rolls around? For now, it looks like Stan Wawrinka could not have asked for a more favorable road through Cincinnati. The second-seeded Swiss finds himself in a section of the bracket in which the other seeds are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer, and Feliciano Lopez. Tsonga is once again a physical question mark, Ferrer is slumping, and Lopez will be making a quick turnaround after finishing runner-up in Los Cabos. A red-hot Steve Johnson may be able to continue his scorching form, coming off a quarterfinal performance at the Olympics to go along with a bronze medal in men’s doubles.
Wawrinka has to like his chances of not only reaching the quarterfinals, but also advancing to the semis. Nadal and Tomas Berdych are potential quarterfinal opponents, but neither one is heading into this week in peak condition; Nadal because he endured a grueling Olympics and Berdych simply because he is lacking form. The Nadal-Berdych quarter could be won by Marin Cilic, Nick Kyrgios, or perhaps Wimbledon quarterfinalist Sam Querrey. Kyrgios, the recent Atlanta champion, has an intriguing opener on his hands against Lucas Pouille.
The top half of the bracket has question marks all over the place. Murray will undoubtedly be fatigued, the same goes for Nishikori, and Dominic Thiem appears to have finally run out of gas in 2016. That leaves Milos Raonic as the lone first-round bye recipient in the top half who looks like an especially reliable choice to fare well in Cincinnati. Gael Monfils and Ivo Karlovic (the latter especially if Murray withdraws) have a fine chance to maintain their awesome summer hot streaks.
First-round upset alert: (PR) Julien Benneteau over (10) David Ferrer. Benneteau is just 4-10 at the ATP level this season as he returns from injury, but he picked up two wins this past week in Los Cabos before succumbing to Lopez. Also 34 years old, Ferrer has already tumbled out of the top 10 and things only appear to be getting worse after he lost to Evgeny Donskoy in round two of the Olympics. The head-to-head series stands at a competitive 6-4 in favor of Ferrer, and another close one could be in the cards at this Masters 1000 event.
Hot: Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios, Ivo Karlovic, Taylor Fritz, Nicolas Mahut, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Reilly Opelka, Jared Donaldson
Cold: David Ferrer, Kevin Anderson, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Vasek Pospisil, Julien Benneteau, Gilles Simon, Grigor Dimitrov
Quarterfinal predictions: David Goffin over Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic over Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios over Marin Cilic, and Stan Wawrinka over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Semifinals: Raonic over Goffin and Wawrinka over Kyrgios
Final: Raonic over Wawrinka
[polldaddy poll=9497189]
who ya got?
Raonic over Kyrgios
Same here.
QF : Murray d Nadal, Raonic d Monfils,Kyrgios d Berdych ,Stan d. Tsonga
SF: Raonic d. Murray, Kyrgios d. Wawrinka
QFs:
Goffin over Gasquet
Monfils over Raonic
Kyrgios over Berdych
Dimitrov over Tsonga
SFs:
Monfils over Goffin
Kyrgios over Dimitrov
Final :
Kyrgios over Monfils
dimi over tsonga?! believe that when i see it….
Agreed.
Remember…
#HerbertWillWin
Honestly, I’m not sure about that at all 🙂
Thought about changing it, but I really liked Dimitrov’s Toronto performance especially against Ivo (stunning display from him against a red hot Croat) and Nishikori (despite the fact he lost).
On the other side, his loss against Cilic in Olympics 1r was disappointing. I’m really not sure about this and I might be biased because of how beautiful his groundstrokes are 🙂
Anyway, that’s my pick. We’ll see what happens in the tournament.
dimi always ends up flattering to deceive. (probably on many fronts!). don’t see him beating tsonga. he can lose to anyone early on as well.
Yeah, there is a decent chance he bails out to Simon in the first round, but I just don’t know, I still think the guy has it in him, can’t forget so easily about the way he played in 2014, hope he comes back to that playing level 🙂
Dim Dim is like Gulbis.
Throws together a few good matches and everyone takes the bait that he’s turned the page.
Dump this stock while it’s on a little run.
QF:
Murray over Nishikori
Monfils over Isner
Kyrgios over Cilic
Wawrinka over Johnson
SF:
Murray over Monfils
Wawrinka over Kyrgios
Final:
Wawrinka over Murray
This will probably change because a few big names could withdraw.
I like Benny’s picks. I think Murray has a good shot at the win here. Even after the Olympics, I think Murray is on a roll now. Stan should do well here with a favorable draw.
I am going to wait and see us anyone decides to drop out. But there is no question that there is a real opportunity for someone outside the top four to win this event.
Not too sure about Andy Murray skipping Cincy, either. He looked strong even at the end of Rio tennis. Hoping Rafa does – just because like everyone else, I’m wondering if he needs a rest after Olympics.
QF: Murray/Nishikori, Raonic/Monfils, Nadal/Berdych, Wawrinka/Tsonga
SF: Murray/Raonic, Nadal/Wawa
F: Murray over Nadal (I don’t know)
rc,
You are fast with your picks! I think you made some good ones.
I do think Murray will play Cincy. I just don’t know about Rafa. He has to be tired after playing so many matches in a compressed period of time after not playing for over two months.
I assume Rafa will consult with his doctor and team to make the best decision.
ALL of them might want to make hay while Nole is away, Nny…
A couple days ago I was thinking shirley Rafa, Andy, and Kei would pull out of Cincy and this would be wide open to Berdych, Kyrgios, ect…
It feels like Rafa or Andy will win Cincy…right now, anyway. 🙂
OMG… I completely missed Kyrgios and Cilic and Johnson in the draw.
Never mind. Have to start over… but same final.
Andy v Rafa
rc,
LOL! Yes, you did leave out a few! This could get interesting depending on if anyone else pulls out.
🙂 I’m out of practice and hadn’t had my coffee!
Neither Murray nor Rafa making quarters?
And raonic winning it all with just a single career masters final three years ago.
What you smoking Ricky?
I don’t g along with the idea that Murray will be tired. Winning breeds winning. He’s on a good streak now since Wimbledon and I would think he will want to keep it going.
I think Murray has a good chance to win at Cincy. Stan has a great draw and should go deep. I think Rafa could be good to go with a late Wednesday start. His doctor is with him to keep an eye on how he’s doing and that wrist.
Murray has a decent chance but I see good reasons to pick him to lose against Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round
1. Tiredness – he should be a bit tired, but his second round match will be like on Wednesday? I guess, so that might be not that important
2. H2H – He’s a perfect 6-0 against Karlovic, even though all of those matches but one (the last one, this year’s RG) were really close – especially those Wimbledon ones could have gone either way.
3.Big hitting game – Regular top tier players like Murray do not tend to lose against (just) solid players. I think that to upset someone like Murray you’ve got to have a big hitting game, and with Ivo’s serve and stunning net play his matches usually come down to a few points here and there. That’s why he has a better chance of upsetting someone really good (notice a 3-1 record against Djoko, including 2-1 in the main tour), but also a better chance of losing to a lower ranked player.
4.Karlovic’s form right now – After a disappointing loss against Lacko in Wimbledon 2R Ivo has played just amazing tennis, he won Newport and Los Cabos, lost in Washington final to Monfils after failing to serve out the match and lost in Toronot 3R to Dimitrov after upsetting Cilic a round earlier. His win-loss record since Wimbledon is 14-2.
Rafa and Andy both intend to play Cincy. They flew there together via private jet yesterday. The tournament has a livestream on practice court 15. I think I saw Andy out there earlier. Rafa is due to practice between 6 and 8 pm (time zone not stated). I think they intend to play. If they get Wednesday 1st rounds they’ll have time to rest a bit. After the Olympics playing one match a day should seem like a vacation.
I was thinking that if rafa could get a Wednesday start that it might work for him. He needs a few days off from match play to get his strength back,
I didn’t know that Rafa and Murray flew to Cincy together. Cincy is in central time and that is an hour earlier than eastern time. I would assume that practice times would be at central time.
I would think Rafa will want more match play ahead of the USO.
Thanks for the info, Ramara! I do think Rafa is determined to play Cincy! He wants more match practice with USO just around the corner…
I am worried about Rafa meeting Kyrgios in the early rounds unless Borna finds thr way to send Nick home…if Rafa beats Nick he will reach the final…
If rafa gets in, he’ll win it….he looked great down in Rio….as did so many of the ATP greats who played for the medals.
Somehow I do not think Muzz will win Cincy. Not because of his form but the doubts I have about his motivation to go all out before USO.
OOP for Tuesday:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2016/422/op.pdf
Rafa won’t play before Wednesday.
I was hoping that Rafa would have a Wednesday start. That’s what he needed to give himself a day or two without match play.
NID
I think Raonic is a good pick for the title . He has a tough draw but the fast surface suits him more than it does Rafa,Monfils or even Murray.
Yep
Very tough draw for Milos who’s only made one career masters final.
Isner, who plays well in Cincy could take him out first round.
Draw just got a lot easier for Milos if its true Monfils pulled out
Wawa just lost the first set to Dimi!
Good job, Grigor! Go for it!
Turns out I was right to pick Dimitrov to get far in Cincy. He’s already in the quarters by beating Simon, Lopez and Wawrinka. Now he’s due to face Johnson in the QFs.
yeah i was thinking about your dimi pick. very prescient of you.
to think that i mocked you!
Well as I said I wasn’t really sure about that one 🙂
He’s not exactly the most regular player on tour 😀
Who would have thought that Dimi would get to the quarters here! I did say before the tournament started, that it could be an opportunity for someone. I was thinking more of Kyrgios, not Dimi.
But good for Dimi. He could use a good result here. With Novak and Fed already out, now Stan and Rafa and Nishi, it’s been crazy.
I still think Murray is the favorite. He’s the only top player still in it. I think he would like to continue his winning ways.
We were all wrong
At least my analysis was OK,Murray was beaten by a big serve and forehand.Just got the player wrong
I think that Murray was gassed for the final. Cilic came out somehow looking fresh as a daisy, even after being up late the night before. He played really well and Murray wasn’t on his game.
I am sure Murray would have liked to finish with another win and extend his winning streak, but I don’t think this loss means anything with regard to his chances at the USO.
Yeah, I also thought Murray would be beaten by a big-hitter 🙂
But I thought it would be Ivo Karlovic 😀
Got to say I underestimated Marin Cilic but I guess his form is really good lately (after Roland Garros his only poor performance was Toronto were he bailed to Karlovic 2R). Now I’m gonna say he’s one of the top 5 favorites for the US Open title (along with Novak, Murray, Raonic and maybe Rafa).
Also, my crazy prediction of Grigor Dimitrov reaching the semis turned out to be correct. Really happy for the Bulgarian as it makes him a seed in the US Open.
I thought Kyrgios might get through in a depleted draw at Cincy, but that didn’t happen. You never know with him.
Dimi needed a good result here. At least it got him seeded for the USO. That was a great prediction for him to reach the semis.
I think Murray and Novak are the obvious favorites going into the USO. Cilic may have just put himself in the mix with his first Masters title. Delpo could be a dangerous floater, but will have to face some tough early competition in the draw.
I don’t know about Rafa. His core game is looking good, especially that cc backhand. I am concerned about his fitness level for best of five set matches, but there is a day off in between matches to recuperate.